Why Prices are Listed Too High in CS
Ok, I have done some pretty extensive research on why things like a locked crate or other items are listed at ridiculously high prices. I do not think that people are listing them at such insane prices merely in the hopes that someone will by accident purchase the item the risk/return ratio is much too high considering the CS fees.
The reason people list items at WAY higher prices is because it establishes a baseline value. Similar to a stocks IPO (Initial Public Offering). Here is a real world example of what I mean. If someone purchases all the "Purple Founder Sets" in CS they can then re-list an item at 1mil from this point Purple Founder will ONLY be listed lower than 1m being undercut until it reaches its base value. Heres what CS would look like in this scenario:
Purple Founder 1,000,0000
Purple Founder 850,000
Purple Founder 700,000
Purple Founder 650,000
Purple Founder 500,000
Purple Founder 300,000
Purple Founder 220,000
Here is what CS would look like with a base value (IPO) of 500K starting:
Purple Founder 500,000
Purple Founder 400,000
Purple Founder 350,000
Purple Founder 200,000
Purple Founder 155,000
Purple Founder 110,000
Purple Founder 90,000
In the first example the value was forcibly driven upwards by listing the initial price at 1m since it had more leeway to be undercut thus its final listed base value would be increased. Whereas in the second example it is driven down further because the initial listing was at 500K and was limited to be "undercut"
Keep in mind in order to successfully manipulate the market by listing the IPO at an inflated value an individual must ALREADY have a good bankroll or it will not work. This is because any item listed WAY below the desired base value must be purchased and the 3day IPO of 1m in CS must be maintained at all times which costs a significant amount of gold in "fees"
Also notice the names as you scroll through CS you will notice the names of several players listing themselves at VERY high prices and then undercutting THEMSELVES. Here's an example of what to look for:
Purple Founder 1,000,000 (Roger)
Purple Founder 800,000(Chris)
Purple Founder 775,000(Frank)
Purple Founder 745,000 (Roger)
Purple Founder 625,000 (Susan)
Purple Founder 600,000 (Roger)
Get the picture? The reason for it being listed multiple times by the same person undercutting themselves is they are trying to control the undercutting of pricing on their IPO 1m listing. What they DONT want to happen is they spend 100K in CS "fees" to list an item at 1m and someone undercut the price right away to 500K so instead they assist by undercutting the value; but only slightly to control the drop.
The second reason for insanely high prices listed in CS. Here is what I have experimented with and know works for different twink items.
I will use 3 alts each listing the same item but at VERY different prices. Since most people do not track the base value of an item they always reference back to CS this is a great way for YOU TO DETERMINE the value of an item example:
Super Pink Daggers lvl 20 250,000 (X)
Super Pink Daggers lvl 20 175,000 (Susan)
Super Pink Daggers lvl 20 95,000 (Charles)
Most people will purchase the last set of daggers from "Charles" thinking that they are getting a GREAT deal since it was listed at such a high price initially by "X" at 250K. However "Charles" and "Susan" are actually "X" who listed those items and DETERMINED the initial price to begin with. This method/concept is derived from the first in determining an IPO for an item to set its base value. However this WILL NOT work on "Gear" lvl 40 and 41 there is too much in the market being constantly farmed and replenished. However there is a very finite amount of "Gear" for lets say a lvl 9 rogue. There might only be a handful of items listed thus the value of those items being listed is much more easily inflated and manipulated. Keep in mind the cost of gold in CS "Fees" as you want to make sure the fees don't eat into your margins too much when doing this.
The virtual market just like the RL market can, and IS controlled by a handful of very wealthy individuals who understand these concepts and have the bankroll to put a stranglehold on the economy to keep certain prices high and drive other prices down if they wish. I have experimented heavily with CS here is what I would advise for anyone who has a serious interest in learning.
Track the names of people who purchase YOUR items on CS
Track the names of people who list Arcane/Mythic items frequently on CS
Track the names of people who list multiple items and undercut themselves on CS
Track the value of Mythic/Arcane items 2x on a daily basis (Morning/Evening)
Track the value of popular legendary items 2x on a daily basis (Morning/Evening)
Track the value of vanity items on a weekly basis
I myself was surprised by the difference in value on items from when I woke up in the morning and I would check on that same item/items before I went to sleep. For my time zone CST the best time to SELL is in the AM whereas the best time to BUY is in the PM.
Open up an excel sheet or just write it down on a scratch sheet of paper and begin to record your findings the information is very useful and will provide some insight.
The biggest impact on the economy is STS events or specials keep track of the when/what of these events as they play a crucial role in wether its time to buy or sell.
**This post is speculative theories**
