Question for developers: Locked Crates vs. Elite Golden Chests

I'm not going to ask about odds as obviously that will stay a mystery. So here is my question:

Locked Crates have the possibility to reward any of 8 different arcane items now: 4 eggs (Hammerjaw, Glacian, Samael, Singe), 3 weapons (Hooks, Maul, Kershal) and Arcane Shard.

An Elite Golden Puzzlebox has the chance to reward only one single arcane item: Kershal Scepter.


We have been told that Locked Crates have a slightly better chance of rewarding an arcane (or mythic) item than does an elite golden chest. But does that mean locked crates have a better chance at rewarding each individual arcane item, or an arcane item in general. Because if the chance of looting each individual item is better with a locked crate, then the overall chance of looting any arcane item would have to then be more than 8 times better since there are 8 different arcane items that come in crates.

On the other hand, if the total chance of looting any arcane item is only slightly better than an elite golden chest, then the chance of looting a specific arcane item would be much better in the specific elite golden chest that has a chance to contain that item.

For example, if the chance of looting an arcane item in a locked crate is 0.2%, that would mean the chance of looting any individual arcane item would be 0.025% (0.025 x 8 = 0.2). Now given these numbers in my example, would the chance of looting a Maul in an elite golden warchest be (a) 0.18% - slightly less than 0.2%, or (b) 0.023% - slightly less than 0.025% ???

I think I read long ago that it works something like this.

Roll for item.
Lets say you get an arcane on the roll.
Now roll again 1 out of 8 or however many arcane items there are.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ravager

I think I read long ago that it works something like this.

Roll for item.
Lets say you get an arcane on the roll.
Now roll again 1 out of 8 or however many arcane items there are.

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You're partially correct.

This is how it works:

1. Roll for item.
2. If you roll an arcane:
• Roll again for egg or weapon (shard is in weapon category)
3. If you roll egg, you have a chance at: hammerjaw, glacian, samael, or singe.
4. If you roll weapon, you have a chance at: hooks, kershal, maul, or shard.

So the possibility of looting an arcane shard is ~ 0.0125%?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Zylx

So the possibility of looting an arcane shard is ~ 0.0125%?

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Pretty much.

With an ever increasing supply of arcane crates, each campaigning, the odds of opening elite golden ____ boxes seem better than opening locked crates.

According to logical rules, goldens should have better odds, because they are harder to obtain than locked. However, there is no confirmation and only devs can explain us, what's going on (which is not very likely).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MoloToha

According to logical rules, goldens should have better odds, because they are harder to obtain than locked. However, there is no confirmation and only devs can explain us, what's going on (which is not very likely).

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Here's the thing.

Locked crates drop like rain... They cost 15 Plat

Elite Chests drop somewhat moderately... Free to open.

Get the picture?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Zeus

You're partially correct.

This is how it works:

1. Roll for item.
2. If you roll an arcane:
• Roll again for egg or weapon (shard is in weapon category)
3. If you roll egg, you have a chance at: hammerjaw, glacian, samael, or singe.
4. If you roll weapon, you have a chance at: hooks, kershal, maul, or shard.

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This is correct (recently confirmed in chat box--I have screenshots, too). First, there is a roll for 'rarity,' then it rolls for subcategories (for a Kershal: rarity, weapon vs egg, specific weapon).

So yes, I'd say it's reasonable to feel you could look a Kershal from puzzleboexes before you do in a crate. However, you could stand to look a shard and get a Kershal + gold in exchange, or other less valuable arcanes that you can put towards a Kershal (opened 800 crates vs boxes--could end up emty handed from boxes, but possibly get hammerjaw and hooks from crates).

Now I see the sense if there is a roll for rarity first! If that roll exists, then when we open lockeds it doesnt guarantee kershal when it rolls into "arcane", but with puzzle boxes it does. I always thought that the roll is independent, like there are chance to get rolled into any arcane items in locked, while golden chests only has 1 arcane. Well we need dev's reply on this ~.~