Should We Hoard Elixir Kits?

With the addition of these trade able elixir kits realistically how many people will continue to purchase elixirs rather than purchase the kits given the current plat/gold ratio. Here is what I mean:

If I purchase a luck elixir for 4p I will usually get around 4-6 locked crates within 30 minutes (lets put the number at 5 for illustration purposes) lets also put the price of locked crates at 10K (which prior to this kit release was very low). This means I have now made 50K=4p ratio.

NOW the price of a luck elixir kit is 12K so using the formula above 12K=50K. At this point it becomes more profitable for me to SAVE my platinum and instead only purchase the luck elixir kits at 12K.

I also believe most people will see this too and cease to purchase elixirs for the standard 4p. IF this does happen the DEMAND for elixir kits will go UP which means that NOW, while the market is flooded with those kits it is a good time to purchase them as their value will increase since more and more people will transition to purchasing elixir kits (Increasing Demand) and save their platinum for other purchases (Which might very well be opening locked crates which would then INCREASE their price again) = )

**This does not take into account legendary items being farmed I used Locked crates as they are the easiest to illustrate**

**This post is speculative theories only**

The circular logic on this post is so dizzyingly bad I LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!

Elixir kits will ebb and flow until they are removed from the plat store, at which point they will rise until the point where it is no longer profitable to use one.

Here is what I am betting on:

Luck Elixirs will continue to drop in price and bottom out at 8-8.5K.

Luck Elixirs will eventually increase to reach a stable price above 12K.

Locked Crates will drop below 10K in 2 days.

People will have additional platinum saved since they will be buying elixir kits rather than purchase elixirs; they will then use this additional platinum to open locked crates thereby increasing the value of locked crates once more.

Just look at the cost of the cheapest vanity purchasable from the store. And it will give you an idea of what the cost of these elixirs will settle at. They will settle around 2 to 2.5x the cost of plat. If crates go below 10k, I suggest you buy as many as you can.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by falmear

Just look at the cost of the cheapest vanity purchasable from the store. And it will give you an idea of what the cost of these elixirs will settle at. They will settle around 2 to 2.5x the cost of plat. If crates go below 10k, I suggest you buy as many as you can.

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You cannot use a vanity item as a base to determine value since they are:

A) Non perishable
B) Do not effect actual gameplay

The demand for vanities and the demand for elixirs is vastly different.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OtAtOtomustam

You cannot use a vanity item as a base to determine value since they are:

A) Non perishable
B) Do not effect actual gameplay

The demand for vanities and the demand for elixirs is vastly different.

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Yes you can because its return on investment. You spend x plat you want to get y gold. If you get less gold back from vanities and more gold from elixirs people will buy and sell these. Eventually causing the price on elixirs to drop as sellers undercut each other. Then people switch back to vanities if they are getting more gold until they are both trading around the same conversion ratio. There is enough people with plat to keep flooding CS with vanities and elixirs driving the price down regardless of demand.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by falmear

Yes you can because its return on investment. You spend x plat you want to get y gold. If you get less gold back from vanities and more gold from elixirs people will buy and sell these. Eventually causing the price on elixirs to drop as sellers undercut each other. Then people switch back to vanities if they are getting more gold until they are both trading around the same conversion ratio. There is enough people with plat to keep flooding CS with vanities and elixirs driving the price down regardless of demand.

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Thats a very good point, makes sense.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OtAtOtomustam

With the addition of these trade able elixir kits realistically how many people will continue to purchase elixirs rather than purchase the kits given the current plat/gold ratio. Here is what I mean:

If I purchase a luck elixir for 4p I will usually get around 4-6 locked crates within 30 minutes (lets put the number at 5 for illustration purposes) lets also put the price of locked crates at 10K (which prior to this kit release was very low). This means I have now made 50K=4p ratio.

NOW the price of a luck elixir kit is 12K so using the formula above 12K=50K. At this point it becomes more profitable for me to SAVE my platinum and instead only purchase the luck elixir kits at 12K.

I also believe most people will see this too and cease to purchase elixirs for the standard 4p. IF this does happen the DEMAND for elixir kits will go UP which means that NOW, while the market is flooded with those kits it is a good time to purchase them as their value will increase since more and more people will transition to purchasing elixir kits (Increasing Demand) and save their platinum for other purchases (Which might very well be opening locked crates which would then INCREASE their price again) = )

**This does not take into account legendary items being farmed I used Locked crates as they are the easiest to illustrate**

**This post is speculative theories only**

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No flaws. 10/10.



Now seriously,

http://scienceboom.com/wp-content/up...03/stop-it.jpg

Merching is the most funny and profitable thing to do in this game, When i hit the jackpot i am happy and proud cause i was able to predict market movements on my own, with my brain. Sometimes i fail too but its part of the game you know? it is a gamble. A funny gamble.

If you keep on with threads like this no more strategy will be required to merch NO WAIT merching won't even exist anymore cause everyone will merch the same things and that would be messy. (See locked crates).

There are many players that can make threads like this you know but none of them does, take a pause and ask yourself why[....]

IMHO i think the secret behind a successful economy that allows decent profit from merching is the fact everyone merch on DIFFERENT things.


Just my 2 cents.

I'm going to use unbased facts to make this subjective statement:

The OP if i'm not mistaken, doesn't like Merchants, and is in some respects, not only enlightening those who do not understand the games market fundamentals, but also putting a little dent in merchants pockets. is this significant? Probably not, but its funny nonetheless.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hectororius

I'm going to use unbased facts to make this subjective statement:

The OP if i'm not mistaken, doesn't like Merchants, and is in some respects, not only enlightening those who do not understand the games market fundamentals, but also putting a little dent in merchants pockets. is this significant? Probably not, but its funny nonetheless.

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I concur!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hectororius

I'm going to use unbased facts to make this subjective statement:

The OP if i'm not mistaken, doesn't like Merchants, and is in some respects, not only enlightening those who do not understand the games market fundamentals, but also putting a little dent in merchants pockets. is this significant? Probably not, but its funny nonetheless.

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He is so polite and objective you can't understand if he hates merchant or not. XD


Seriously merching is a good way even average players can use in making money and what you post on forums does make difference...you might know already but Kei's Prank yesterday made lockeds rise by 1-2k then gradually drop.

Edit: If in that lass of time he had wanted for example to sell 1 locked crate you can bet he was able to sell it.