AL Economy in Recession??
Yes, we are having economic problems here in AL. Speak to any merchant and they will tell you that nobody is buying anything lately. Most players who have items they want to sell are finding that when they list them in the auction, they just don't sell. There are many theories why this is happening, so here I will explain the problems:
Theory #1) Gold for Plat purchases has destroyed the economy!
Answer: WRONG....
Gold for Plat purchases increase the amount of gold in circulation, which causes inflation. In a global economy with many different countries (and thus many different currencies), when one country's currency has massive inflation, other countries may refuse to accept that currency as payment for goods and services, so that currency is devalued even more causing even more rapid inflation. The end result in runaway inflation which can cripple an economy.
However, unlike in the real world there are no other currencies in AL, so you can never have runaway inflation. Players cannot decide to trade in their gold for another currency. We are forced to use gold. So in the end, gold for plat purchases only cause a steady inflation which causes prices of all items to rise equally. It does not however cause any other problems with the economy.
And if gold loses enough of its value over time, fewer and fewer players will buy gold for plat since the amount of gold you are getting would not be worth the exchange anymore. Unless STS was to increase the amount of gold offered per plat spent (which they have never done), this will not be affected any.
Theory #2) Locked crates destroy the economy because the mythic and arcane items are way too rare.
Answer: WRONG....
Rare and expensive items never destroy any economy. If anything, they give incentive for people to work towards obtaining those items. There is a reason people work hard for a living in some countries while in others they don't get much productivity out of the work force. It all depends on how much upward mobility there is. Yes, not everyone will be able to obtain the best items --- if it were possible for everyone to obtain, then they wouldn't be "rare", and they would no longer be "expensive". But some players who work hard will be able to obtain these items, and that alone actually helps the economy.
Theory #3) Locked crates destroy the economy because of the cheap and common "junk" pinks that come out of them.
Answer: CORRECT!
Locked crates are destroying the economy because there is a pink legendary item in each crate, some which have very good stats (Bonechill Bow for example). Because there is one in every crate, these "crate pinks" have become so common that the price of them has fallen to less than 500 gold each in many cases. Since the stats of these crate pinks are often times better than some of the pinks that come from Elite Chests and some of the pinks that fall from Elite Bosses, those pinks are losing their value as well.
As a result, an end game player can gear up his character with decent legendary pink gear for only a few thousand gold. Beyond that there is really no other options for most players. The "elite" pinks that drop from bosses (noble armors/helms, entombed hammers, nordr staffs, etc.) are only slightly better than the crate pinks, and since the cost of these elite pinks is 20x as much as the crate pinks, players have pretty much stopped buying these items as well. It's just not worth such a big price increase for such a small stat increase.
So in order to get noticeably better stats than the crate pinks, you must go all the way up to mythics which cost 30m+ for a complete set. Since most players do not see the possibility of ever being able to afford these very expensive items, they have given up and are just in a holding pattern where they are saving their gold for next season.
"Elite" end game players normally spend their time farming the elite dungeons, and selling the elite chests/pinks that they get. They then save their gold and buy the pricey mythic and arcane items. However, since nobody is buying the elite chests & pinks, these players have been unable to raise much gold. As a result, players with mythic and arcane items for sale are also having problems selling those items as nobody can afford them. Normally when nobody can afford an item the price will drop. But since players know this will all change once the next season starts, most of them are holding their pricey items and waiting to sell until they find a buyer who will pay the high price.
And of course merchants (including myself) have not been able to make much gold on anything lately, so I've stopped merching for the most part.
WHAT IS THE SOLUTION???
Answer:
The only "fix" to these problems would be the following:
1) STS must step in and buy up all the excess crate pinks in the auction (just as the Federal Reserve bought up the crap mortgages when our economy was on the verge of collapse 5 years ago). Let STS make a toon, give that toon a few million gold, and let them buy up every crate pink in the auction that is priced below what they decide should be the floor for these items. And continue to do that for a week or two until the prices of these items rebound to what they should be.
2) Stop giving a legendary pink item in every crate. Let the crates have a chance for a pink -- maybe 1 in 10. Because right now it doesn't even matter that you get a pink in each crate if they are worth only 500 gold each. Nobody cares and nobody is opening crates to get these cheap crappy pinks. Players are only happy when they get mythic or arcane. So at least if the pinks were worth what a pink should be worth, players would be happy when they get one.
Once these crate pinks go back up in price, the elite pinks will become a worthy alternative again and players will start buying those again, and then the "elite" players will be able to sell the items they farm and they too will now have extra cash to spend on mythics and the whole economy will start moving again, which is what I think we all want. I think this would even result in players opening more crates, not less. Because if you knew opening a crate was more than an "all or nothing" chance, maybe you would be more likely to open one.
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