Locked Crates vs. Elite Golden Chests (question for developers)

[Energizeric]

We have been told that the chance of getting a mythic or arcane item in an elite golden chest is slightly lower than getting a similar item in a locked crate....

There are currently 8 arcane items that can be found in locked crates:

Hammerjaw
Glacian
Samael
Singe
Hooks
Maul
Kershal
Shard

Since we do not know the exact percentage chance of getting these items, let's suppose the chance of getting any single one of these arcane items is X%. That means that the total chance of getting any arcane item would be 8X%.

Does that mean that the chance of getting an Arcane Shard in an Elite Golden Dragonscale Chest is slightly less than X%, or slightly less than 8X% ???

Because if the chance of getting an Arcane Shard in an Elite Golden Dragonscale Chest is slightly less than X%, then the chance of getting any Arcane item in a Locked Crate is actually more than 8 times higher than getting one in an Elite Golden Chest, since all types of Elite Golden Chests only drop one single type of Arcane item.

On the other hand, if the chance of getting an Arcane Shard in an Elite Golden Dragonscale Chest is slightly less than 8X%, then the chance of getting an Arcane Shard in an Elite Golden Dragonscale Chest would actually be much higher than getting that same item in a locked crate.

So which is it?

[Anarchist]

Legit question.

But the devs said they aren't telling the drop rates. :P

[Fidalex]

I don't think it works this way ener.
I suppose that the first dice roll determines the type of your loot (arcane, mythic, pink, gold etc), then, if you are lucky enough to get an arcane item, a second dice roll determines what arcane item you get.
If the chance to roll an arcane is x% on the first loot table and y% to roll a shard on the second one then your total chance is x*y% (mathematically speaking).
I suppose that looting a shard from an egdc is slightly less than x*y%.

Anyway i might be completely wrong 😁

[basketholic209]

I don't think it works this way ener.
I suppose that the first dice roll determines the type of your loot (arcane, mythic, pink, gold etc), then, if you are lucky enough to get an arcane item, a second dice roll determines what arcane item you get.
If the chance to roll an arcane is x% on the first loot table and y% to roll a shard on the second one then your total chance is x*y% (mathematically speaking).
I suppose that looting a shard from an egdc is slightly less than x*y%.

Anyway i might be completely wrong 😁

If I'm not mistaken, Zeus had talked about the same thing before. But instead of only 2 rolls, there are 3 rolls. The second one is to decide whether it is a weapon (shard is in weapon category) or an egg. Weapon is rarer than egg. The third one is the specific item roll.

Sent from my SM-N900 using Tapatalk

[Kreasadriii]

So opening elite golden chest still good isn't it? especially for people who doesn't had plat but want arcane or mythic

[tankk]

Lock drop rate of arcane are probably 1-2% so elite chest are gonna be hard to get mytjic or arcane

[Energizeric]

I don't think it works this way ener.
I suppose that the first dice roll determines the type of your loot (arcane, mythic, pink, gold etc), then, if you are lucky enough to get an arcane item, a second dice roll determines what arcane item you get.
If the chance to roll an arcane is x% on the first loot table and y% to roll a shard on the second one then your total chance is x*y% (mathematically speaking).
I suppose that looting a shard from an egdc is slightly less than x*y%.

Anyway i might be completely wrong ��

In the case of an Elite Golden Dragonscale chest, y would be 100% since there is only one arcane item that you can get. So once "x" determines that you get an arcane item, there is no "y".

So even if you are correct then that does not change the legitimacy of my question. Read what I wrote again. All I did was assume that for locked crates "y%" was the same for all 8 arcane items, which may or may not be correct, but it does not change the question. I want to know if the chance of looting a specific arcane item (like a Kershal for example) would be better in an elite golden chest or in a locked crate. I suspect that the answer may be "locked crate" in which case that means that the chance of looting any arcane item at all is actually more than 8 times greater in a locked crate than in an elite golden chest.

[FluffNStuff]

What you are missing is that both locks and EGP's are essentially slot machines and these work by spinning virtual wheels with a lot more items then you are seeing. For instance, the 2K might show up 800 times on the virtual wheel, where as each arcane item shows up once, perhaps each Mythic shows up 2-3 times.
Now there is one Arcane Shard on each virtual wheel, and you are concerned with the other Arcanes that take up 7 other spots out of say 500 or a 1000. The real question is how many spots are there on each wheel that contain junk.

[Rianaku]

^ Exactly. No matter how you explain it, basically I would presume that Crates have a lot better chance, we can't say exactly how much better because we don't know the drop % etc etc. But basically yes, it's going to be damn hard to get arcane/mythic out of an elite golden chest.

~Peace

[Energizeric]

^ Exactly. No matter how you explain it, basically I would presume that Crates have a lot better chance, we can't say exactly how much better because we don't know the drop % etc etc. But basically yes, it's going to be damn hard to get arcane/mythic out of an elite golden chest.

I understand that. What I want to know is which of the following is true:

1) Elite Golden Chests have a slightly less chance of dropping any arcane item than Locked Crates, but a better chance at dropping a specific arcane item.

or

2) Elite Golden Chests have a slightly less chance of dropping a specific arcane item than Locked Crates, and a much lower chance at dropping any arcane item.



Either #1 or #2 is the case. I'm trying to find out which one. It's simple math. Saying that the chance is "low" so it doesn't matter is a meaningless statement. I know the chance of dropping arcane is low. Don't make this into a debate if you don't know the answer. I'm asking the developers for their input. If they don't want to say, then I'd ask them to please post that they would rather not say and I'll accept that. But don't tell me that my question is not relevant to you. Post in a different thread then please.

[Morholt]

I'd go with an elite gold has a better chance at desired arcane item.

If a locked for arcane is 1/999, and a chest is 1/1111, that is the slight difference in rarity.
For a chest, that arcane is an automatic shard.
For a crate, it first does the 1/999, then determines if weapon/egg. If weapons actually are rarer, we could guess it is 40% chance weapon category and 60% egg. Not running the numbers, but that sounds to be worse than 1/1111 already. Next, you have to roll for the shard out of 4 weapons. Perhaps it's a fair chance for each at this point. Perhaps not, and shard has a lower chance than that. But, at best, the chance is 1/4. This now, without running numbers, seems to make the chance of a shard from a chest overwhelmingly better than from a crate.

Of course, we can get lots of other valuable goodies from crates before hitting a shard in either. That's the gamble of deciding what to open--your profit/loss margin.

[Energizeric]

I'd go with an elite gold has a better chance at desired arcane item.

If a locked for arcane is 1/999, and a chest is 1/1111, that is the slight difference in rarity.
For a chest, that arcane is an automatic shard.
For a crate, it first does the 1/999, then determines if weapon/egg. If weapons actually are rarer, we could guess it is 40% chance weapon category and 60% egg. Not running the numbers, but that sounds to be worse than 1/1111 already. Next, you have to roll for the shard out of 4 weapons. Perhaps it's a fair chance for each at this point. Perhaps not, and shard has a lower chance than that. But, at best, the chance is 1/4. This now, without running numbers, seems to make the chance of a shard from a chest overwhelmingly better than from a crate.

Of course, we can get lots of other valuable goodies from crates before hitting a shard in either. That's the gamble of deciding what to open--your profit/loss margin.

I suspect you may be correct, but I'm trying to find out for sure.

[Morholt]

I suspect you may be correct, but I'm trying to find out for sure.

Not sure which is a better reply, so here is both lol:

1) My friend, I suggest you stare into the sky all night long this whole week, and hope to find many shooting stars.

2) I'd say the chances of us getting such a confirmation would be...arcane. :P

[basketholic209]

Not sure which is a better reply, so here is both lol:

1) My friend, I suggest you stare into the sky all night long this whole week, and hope to find many shooting stars.

2) I'd say the chances of us getting such a confirmation would be...arcane. :P

Yeah, if locked crate has lower chance as you said, I'm pretty sure we won't have any confirmation

Sent from my SM-N900 using Tapatalk