Imagine that there is a very rich guy Bob. He wants to open some lockeds for a new Arcane Fossil. Also, there is a smart guy Billy, who knows locked crate loot table and can name an exact chance of getting a certain item (Arcane Fossil in particular). Bob decides to celebrate his salary by opening 10000 lockeds. He contacts Billy, who says that Bob will get X fossils from 10000 lockeds based on odds. Bob opens 10000 crates and gets exactly X fossils. Bob is satisfied with results and wants to open additional 10000, but unfortunately, his wife finds out that he spent their family business money for some pixels and takes all his remaining cash. But Bob has some dollars stashed under his mattress. He counts them and realizes that he is able to open only 1000 lockeds. According to Billy's information and common logic, Bob knows that he will get X/10 fossils from 1000 lockeds. He opens them and gets nothing. Bob doesn't know that with less number of rolls, the results are much more unstable, he can get nothing as well as double amount.
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