Please Explain What Has Happened With Crates

[Niixed]

ill back conrad up on this. i was one who spent 20k plats in the first week of the expansion and made around 80m. looting 3 gold toor and countless arcane shards fossil, about 10 maridos and toor. after my success i told conrad it was time for him to be popping crates. and he had great success as well. but about a week later, i invested 15m back into massive and completely lost. conrad then pm me saying that now is not a good time to be popping crates. i totally agree that the drop rate is mega nerfed, it feel like arcane is back where it should be though, with the title of actual "arcane"

Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.

1. Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
2. Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.

Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?