Please Explain What Has Happened With Crates

[FluffNStuff]

Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.

1. Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
2. Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.

Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regres...oward_the_mean

With the sheer numbers of players opening the new locks, some of them will experience odds crushing luck. Those that experienced it are now returning to normal luck. Others that experienced soul destroying luck will either have their luck returned to normal, or more likely stop opening out of sadness. Either way, the ones we are hearing from are those that had luck far above the mean, but just because they are the majority of the ones we are hearing from does not in any way make them an actual majority of openers.

[conradev]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regres...oward_the_mean

With the sheer numbers of players opening the new locks, some of them will experience odds crushing luck. Those that experienced it are now returning to normal luck. Others that experienced soul destroying luck will either have their luck returned to normal, or more likely stop opening out of sadness. Either way, the ones we are hearing from are those that had luck far above the mean, but just because they are the majority of the ones we are hearing from does not in any way make them an actual majority of openers.

This is a good theory, but does not apply to this case, as I have not encountered a single mass crate opener who did not experience better odds and I think the market proved this...the market tanked for shards and fossils, that hasnt happened before, therefore this can be thrown out.