Quote Originally Posted by FluffNStuff View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regres...oward_the_mean

With the sheer numbers of players opening the new locks, some of them will experience odds crushing luck. Those that experienced it are now returning to normal luck. Others that experienced soul destroying luck will either have their luck returned to normal, or more likely stop opening out of sadness. Either way, the ones we are hearing from are those that had luck far above the mean, but just because they are the majority of the ones we are hearing from does not in any way make them an actual majority of openers.
This is a good theory, but does not apply to this case, as I have not encountered a single mass crate opener who did not experience better odds and I think the market proved this...the market tanked for shards and fossils, that hasnt happened before, therefore this can be thrown out.