How Drop Rates Work (Simplified) and the Factor of Luck Elixirs

[Exemplify]

Awesome thread! really shows the minimal effect of luck elixirs and how drops are truly random. i got lucky in one of my first runs with a L51 MM Gemstone bracer.

[Phoenixking]

I heard that how muh damage you aborbs will SLIGHTY just BARELY change your pink results as when i barekyenter a level that does boss i rarely get a pink but doing the whole map i SCARECLY get a pink

[Kraze]

How drops work: random. Drops with big luck slightly less random. Drops with elixir slightly more less random. Drops with big luck elixir and typing PINK: still random, but if it makes ya happy go for it.

[Pharcyde]

Man, I miss your epic knowledge Phys. Also, you just got a way of wording things, very clear and understandable.

[Ellyidol]

This would benefit all the new players so much if it was stickied. Most deserving one I've come across so far, fully explains the drop system, simple too.

Welcome back, Phys. We've missed your numbers!

PS. In line with independent and random drop chances, wouldn't the event of 5 pinks at once be possible, but very very low odds?

[Fyrce]

Form a circle around the boss, naked, and dancing!

Still giving me a headache with all those numbers, I see

Good to see you posting again! I'm not saying I missed you or anything!

[NECROREAPER]

I've noticed it enough times for it to not be true, depending on how much "work" you're doing can and DOES affect what type of drop you get.

When I say enough times, I mean well over a few hundred

[Tamino]

One of the "myths" I believe is that "pink goes to the lower level player"; my belief comes from empirical data, but not writted down and tested for statistical relevance. IMHO, lower player has better chances to get more valuable item than normal level - it is like the items drop percentages are scaled up (or down?) according to the threat level. This isn't against the indipendence rule, the presence of lower level players does not interfere with the probability of other players to get a pink.

[skavenger216]

Great work physio! I find it funny that even after you have just completely broken down how drop rates work, people are still posting their theories of how to increase chances.

I've noticed it enough times for it to not be true, depending on how much "work" you're doing can and DOES affect what type of drop you get.

When I say enough times, I mean well over a few hundred

Pure coincidence, once again, random is random.

[Tamino]

Pure coincidence, once again, random is random.

Agree (with some extent, there are many kind of distribution even in random functions), but why do you think the drop system is actually random? Because devs said so?

[skavenger216]

Agree (with some extent, there are many kind of distribution even in random functions), but why do you think the drop system is actually random? Because devs said so?

#1: yes, because devs said so

#2: because I have seen LITERALLY hundreds of pink drops, with no noticeable pattern in how drops work, other than complete randomness.

#3: because everytime I hear one of these crazy theories, I try it, knowing it will NOT work, just to debunk the theory.

That's just 3 reasons, if necessary I'm sure I can come up with more, just not atm, I'm extremely tired (laying in bed typing this actually, lol!).

[KingFu]

Nice work man! You never cease to give me a headache!

[csb]

I don't know if you've noticed this but the person who does the most 'work' often gets the better drop, however what that drop is is totally random. I know it may sound strange but I've tried it many times and it *does* work to an extent, however its not a "you'll get a pink every time" kind of thing. Say if a full party kills a boss (lets say GF) and he drops all oranges and one green, the one green more often than not goes to the person who was doing the most "work."

I like this rumor because it makes people work harder. :-) And, I do get that feeling some times of having done a better job than usual and therefore receiving the best drop.

There were times when I did the most work on gf. My mage was spec'd as a paly and would never die, but kept rez'ing everyone else, and I got the pink. So, I thought I did the most work and deserved it. However, there are just as many times that I screwed up, was lucky not to get booted, got the pink, and was a little embarrassed to have gotten it. So, I guess it evens out.

[DawnInfinity]

We'll definitely have to level together.

[krazii]

PS. In line with independent and random drop chances, wouldn't the event of 5 pinks at once be possible, but very very low odds?

yes, theoretically!, Likely, well, Phys, how about some odds on 5 pinks at once?

Elly, how's the vaca?

Kraz

[drewcapu]

My "favorite" is when the toon staring at the ceiling gets the pink.

One thing I haven't seen yet is if a recipe has ever re-rolled to a "better" recipe. I got it to proc when getting a recipe in FH long time ago, but I didn't "get lucky".

[NECROREAPER]

Im not saying do more work and youll get a pink, I'm saying do more work and more often than not youll get the better drop, however a small percentage of the time that's not the case.

I do think and have found that pink drops are completely random though

[noobmigo]

My "favorite" is when the toon staring at the ceiling gets the pink.

One thing I haven't seen yet is if a recipe has ever re-rolled to a "better" recipe. I got it to proc when getting a recipe in FH long time ago, but I didn't "get lucky".

Actually LET ME EXPLAIN WHY!

That toon is the sentry, he haf most important job. He checks for enemies that might jump down from ceiling or sky and wipe you all.

[skavenger216]

Actually LET ME EXPLAIN WHY!

That toon is the sentry, he haf most important job. He checks for enemies that might jump down from ceiling or sky and wipe you all.

Thanks migo! I just woke up, and needed a good laugh.

[Physiologic]

5 pinks to 5 players within the same shot in BS (if its a 1% chance for a pink) would simply be (1/100)^5 or 0.0000000001, or .00000001%