Elixir luck bonus?

**Zel** · 07-03-2012, 03:32 AM

I was just wondering what the luck bonus does, exactly? Is it just for drops, or will it affect the rate at which I see rare spawns too?

Is the bonus additive or multiplicative ?

**Alolucard** · 07-03-2012, 08:58 AM

Does It Effect Ally and Minion Drops?

**Carapace** · 07-03-2012, 10:39 AM

Originally Posted by Alolucard

Does It Effect Ally and Minion Drops?

No, it should not have any affect on Allies or the Nightly Reward.

**Alolucard** · 07-03-2012, 11:11 AM

So Is The 5th Day Reward Guarenteed Legendary Vanity?

**Lowlyspy** · 07-03-2012, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by Alolucard

So Is The 5th Day Reward Guarenteed Legendary Vanity?

From what i've heard, people have gotten vanities or plat (10 being the highest i've heard 1 person getting on 1 toon)

**csb** · 07-03-2012, 03:08 PM

At one time, the drop descriptions in mission icons showed a lot more detail. It even listed the white and green drops from bosses. If I remember correctly, the percent chance of the pink drop was given as 2.7%.

Regular: (100 / 2.7) = 37 boss kills per pink
15% luck: (100 / (2.7 * 1.15)) = 32 boss kills per pink
35% luck: (100 / (2.7 * 1.35)) = 27 boss kills per pink

This should apply to both bosses and ghosts.

I have read some posts where people say that they get a pink almost every time when using an elixir. That is either a lie, or the luck math is broken.

**between** · 07-03-2012, 03:34 PM

the pink drops have been reduced to 1.1% as of the new content release.
Through my endless grinding ive noticed a pretty regular 1 pink drop every half an hour which was equivalent to 35-40 runs with the 15% luck.

i tried with the 35% one, and there was no noticeable difference over the course of 2 hours.

in addition, i have noticed that the rare spawn(at least of the maps that i've farmed) now spawn with a higher chance than the pinks, since the content update.

obviously no real math was done for my information, just stuff i noticed from thousands of runs -.-

**Staryknight** · 07-03-2012, 04:50 PM

Originally Posted by csb

At one time, the drop descriptions in mission icons showed a lot more detail. It even listed the white and green drops from bosses. If I remember correctly, the percent chance of the pink drop was given as 2.7%.

Regular: (100 / 2.7) = 37 boss kills per pink
15% luck: (100 / (2.7 * 1.15)) = 32 boss kills per pink
35% luck: (100 / (2.7 * 1.35)) = 27 boss kills per pink

This should apply to both bosses and ghosts.

I have read some posts where people say that they get a pink almost every time when using an elixir. That is either a lie, or the luck math is broken.

No this is not how the luck elixers work. STS luck elixers do not increase the drop rates instead you get a chance to "reroll". When you reroll you get an item one rarity better than your original drop. So say you kill a boss and get a green if you have a luck elixer you will have a 15/35% percent to reroll. If you
reroll you will automatically get a pink.
So while you do not get a pink every time the drop rate is pretty high. Basically all you have to do is get a green from a boss and the drop rates for that are pretty high. If you reroll you will get a pink.

**csb** · 07-03-2012, 05:24 PM

Originally Posted by Staryknight

No this is not how the luck elixers work. STS luck elixers do not increase the drop rates instead you get a chance to "reroll"...

Ok,

Chance to get a pink:

Regular: 2.7 in 100 kills. So, (100/2.7) = 37 boss kills per pink.
15% luck: 2.7 in 100 kills, plus 15% reroll chance. 2.7 + ((100 - 2.7) * 0.027 * 0.15) = 3.1. So 3.1 pinks in 100 kills is (100/3.1) = 32 boss kills per pink.
35% luck: 2.7 in 100 kills, plus 35% reroll chance. 2.7 + ((100 - 2.7) * 0.027 * 0.35) = 3.6. So 3.1 pinks in 100 kills is (100/3.6) = 28 boss kills per pink.

This is about the same.

Assuming this is true:

Originally Posted by between

the pink drops have been reduced to 1.1% as of the new content release.

Regular: 1.1 in 100 kills. So, (100/1.1) = 91 boss kills per pink.
15% luck: 1.1 in 100 kills, plus 15% reroll chance. 1.1 + ((100 - 1.1) * 0.011 * 0.15) = 1.26. So 1.26 pinks in 100 kills is (100/1.26) = 79 boss kills per pink.
35% luck: 1.1 in 100 kills, plus 35% reroll chance. 1.1 + ((100 - 1.1) * 0.011 * 0.35) = 1.48. So 1.48 pinks in 100 kills is (100/1.48) = 68 boss kills per pink.

**Snakespeare** · 07-03-2012, 05:26 PM

I am going to do rough numbers here, fuzzy math. Normally a pink is 1% and a green is 22%... -ish. And pinks only drop from ghosts, executions, or bosses.

So when a green drops (1 in 5-ish), it tests luck and rerolls (1 in 3 -ish for the expensive one). So every 15th boss/ghost/execution can be a pink. I did get one with one usage.

Now the other elixir is 15% but it lasts longer. A green (1 in 5 -ish) can turn into a pink (1 in 6 -ish) or 1 in 30, and since it lasts longer you are more likely to kill a boss/ghost/execution. When I used this one I got two pinks the first two bosses, thought wow, then got no more for the duration of the elixir.

**Snakespeare** · 07-03-2012, 05:32 PM

Originally Posted by csb

Regular: 1.1 in 100 kills. So, (100/1.1) = 91 boss kills per pink.
15% luck: 1.1 in 100 kills, plus 15% reroll chance. 1.1 + ((100 - 1.1) * 0.011 * 0.15) = 1.26. So 1.26 pinks in 100 kills is (100/1.26) = 79 boss kills per pink.
35% luck: 1.1 in 100 kills, plus 35% reroll chance. 1.1 + ((100 - 1.1) * 0.011 * 0.35) = 1.48. So 1.48 pinks in 100 kills is (100/1.48) = 68 boss kills per pink.

It rerolls greens into pinks. First determine if green (22.8%) then determine if upgraded to pink (15 or 35%).

Straight up multiplication: 22.8 * .15 = 3.42 or 22.8 * .35 = 7.98

rounded to 3.5% and 8%

**csb** · 07-03-2012, 05:41 PM

Originally Posted by Snakespeare

So every 15th boss/ghost/execution can be a pink.

15% chance should mean that after the first roll, there will be a second roll every 7th boss kill. (100/15) = 6.67.

There is no "every 15th... can be a pink". In this case, every 7th has a chance to roll again. Rolling again means another 1.1% chance of getting a pink. So, you have to multiply (0.15 * 1.1) = 0.165. This means that after the first roll giving a 1.1% chance of receiving a pink, there is a 0.165% chance of getting a second roll and receiving a pink.

If the actual number of pinks on re-rolls is greater than 15% times the drop rate, then either the luck description is wrong, or there is a math bug in the game.

**Carapace** · 07-03-2012, 05:54 PM

Originally Posted by csb

...

Assuming this is true:

Regular: 1.1 in 100 kills. So, (100/1.1) = 91 boss kills per pink.
15% luck: 1.1 in 100 kills, plus 15% reroll chance. 1.1 + ((100 - 1.1) * 0.011 * 0.15) = 1.26. So 1.26 pinks in 100 kills is (100/1.26) = 79 boss kills per pink.
35% luck: 1.1 in 100 kills, plus 35% reroll chance. 1.1 + ((100 - 1.1) * 0.011 * 0.35) = 1.48. So 1.48 pinks in 100 kills is (100/1.48) = 68 boss kills per pink.

I can confirm Pink drops were reduced

**Snakespeare** · 07-03-2012, 05:56 PM

^ lol it would be cool if you would tell us whose math is right.

**Snakespeare** · 07-03-2012, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by csb

15% chance should mean that after the first roll, there will be a second roll every 7th boss kill. (100/15) = 6.67.

There is no "every 15th... can be a pink". In this case, every 7th has a chance to roll again. Rolling again means another 1.1% chance of getting a pink. So, you have to multiply (0.15 * 1.1) = 0.165. This means that after the first roll giving a 1.1% chance of receiving a pink, there is a 0.165% chance of getting a second roll and receiving a pink.

If the actual number of pinks on re-rolls is greater than 15% times the drop rate, then either the luck description is wrong, or there is a math bug in the game.

No, it is not a "roll again". It is a guaranteed UPGRADE of the color. Futumsh explained it to us. After your roll, it checks the luck. If you get the luck roll you get the next color up. White becomes green, green becomes pink. The only roll left is which green, because there's only one pink.

**between** · 07-03-2012, 06:06 PM

Originally Posted by Snakespeare

I am going to do rough numbers here, fuzzy math. Normally a pink is 1% and a green is 22%... -ish. And pinks only drop from ghosts, executions, or bosses.

So when a green drops (1 in 5-ish), it tests luck and rerolls (1 in 3 -ish for the expensive one). So every 15th boss/ghost/execution can be a pink. I did get one with one usage.

Now the other elixir is 15% but it lasts longer. A green (1 in 5 -ish) can turn into a pink (1 in 6 -ish) or 1 in 30, and since it lasts longer you are more likely to kill a boss/ghost/execution. When I used this one I got two pinks the first two bosses, thought wow, then got no more for the duration of the elixir.

you just proved how extremely unlucky i am.

**csb** · 07-03-2012, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by Snakespeare

No, it is not a "roll again". It is a for certain UPGRADE of the color.

So, if there is a 1% chance of getting a pink, and a 22% chance of getting a green, then 1 + (22 * 0.35) = 8.7. An 8.7% chance of getting a pink means (100 / 8.7) = 11.5 boss kills per pink.

So, you are saying that with 35% luck, the chance goes from 100 boss kills per pink to 11.5 boss kills per pink? That seems wrong. Can someone confirm that?

I ran PL wearing Big Luck on multiple characters for over a year and never noticed those kinds of numbers. However, elixirs plus Big Luck in certain PL zones like AO3 did generate huge numbers of pinks. I assumed it was normal for those zones, and didn't gather stats with and without luck.

**Snakespeare** · 07-03-2012, 06:16 PM

PL is a hodge podge. They seem to have different drop rates in each campaign. But in DL they tell us the rates.

Yes, I think 11.5 boss/ghost/executions for the higher percentage (shorter duration) elixir is about right. I said 1 in 15 with fuzzy math but it came to 7.98% with real math (which you're right, becomes 9.08% when you add in the normal chance for a pink without the luck proc).

**csb** · 07-03-2012, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by Carapace

I can confirm Pink drops were reduced

Yes, but it is really important to know how the luck percent is applied:
(A) Is is a percent chance to do a second roll identical to the first roll. ie. 35% of the time you repeat the first roll and keep the best or the two rolls.
(B) Is it a percent chance to take the current item color, and increase it. ie. If I get a green, then 35% of the time the green is converted to pink.

**Staryknight** · 07-03-2012, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by csb

(B) Is it a percent chance to take the current item color, and increase it. ie. If I get a green, then 35% of the time the green is converted to pink.

This is for SURE how it works in SL/PL as stated by devs. I would assume that this is how it works for DL as well but could not say for sure. Maybe Cara could chime in here?