How Event Crates & Chests Work During the Ursoth's Assault Event

[Kakashis]

Thanks for the update STS! Guess I didn't make the wrong decision to panic sell all my crates afterall! Can we sell those elondrian chests after we craft them or must we open them like the tarlok Goldens?

[Crowsfoot]

Falmear,

Remember when the first double mythic weekend? Remember how badly it crashed the market in just two days? Thus, it is evident that double chance on locked crates does have an effect. You can say it does not but history has shown us that it has. This system takes care of market crashing by allowing double odds for those who do not like to gamble but the cost is slower crate openings. Considering that this event is three weeks long and there is double odds. Thus, this was an intelligent move.

As for double the chance, you're right. Opening two locked crates is not double the chance in terms of arithmetic. It is two individual independent chances to loot arcane or mythic items. I knew this, but you can think of it like this to ease your mind. However, if you do not like that, then you're welcome to farm Elondrian Spirit chests, no?

Also, read post #57.

Termination of previous trials should be considered. So, Zeus is right that two locks does not equal one double chance crate.

This aside, here are a few economic shifts I foresee:

1) locked crates will sky rocket in price do to them being used in crafting.

2) mythic weapons will be dirt cheap do to:
-the event lasting 3 weeks
-double odds crates
-free chests with the weapons
•a crafting system to create those free chests
•lb runners emassing large quantities of these chests

3) However, this is dependent on the power of the new event items.

4) a larger impact on the economy from nonplat players.

[csyui]

Suppose the loot rate of a mythic item from an old lock crate is 1%. Thus the loot rate of a mythic item from a new lock crate is 2%.
Let us see how we lose the chance to loot mythic after the new lock crate introduced.

We have two options now: open N new lock crate, or open 3N old one. (For example, N=3)

Option 1:
If we open 9 old lock, the chance we get at least one mythic item is
1 - 0.99*0.99*...*0.99 = 0.08648275 (Nine 0.99 involved in multication part.)

Option 2:
If we open 3 new lock, the chance we get at least one mythic item is
1 - 0.98*0.98*0.98 = 0.058808

Conclusion
For option 1, (aka. open old lock), we will get a loot with the probablity around 8.65%;
For option 2, (aka. open new lock), the probability drop to 5.88%.
Warning: You will lose 2.77% to loot mythic items by opening new lock crates.

And you may look more into the new lock from the table below:
(The percentages in the table are the chance you will lose by opening new lock instead of old one given certain values of p and N.
Obviously, we lose a lot chance to earn mythic items on these new lock crates.)

	N=50	100	150	200
p=0.5%	13.35%	14.37%	11.66%	8.46%
p=0.6%	14.14%	13.46%	9.68%	6.24%
p=0.7%	14.55%	12.26%	7.83%	4.48%
p=0.8%	14.67%	10.95%	6.20%	3.16%
p=0.9%	14.56%	9.62%	4.85%	2.20%
p=1%	14.27%	8.36%	3.74%	1.52%

[csyui]

Suppose the loot rate of a mythic item from an old lock crate is 1%. Thus the loot rate of a mythic item from a new lock crate is 2%.
Let us see how we lose the chance to loot mythic after the new lock crate introduced.

We have two options now: open N new lock crate, or open 3N old one. (For example, N=3)

Option 1:
If we open 9 old lock, the chance we get at least one mythic item is
1 - 0.99*0.99*...*0.99 = 0.08648275 (Nine 0.99 involved in multication part.)

Option 2:
If we open 3 new lock, the chance we get at least one mythic item is
1 - 0.98*0.98*0.98 = 0.058808

Conclusion
For option 1, (aka. open old lock), we will get a loot with the probablity around 8.65%;
For option 2, (aka. open new lock), the probability drop to 5.88%.
Warning: You will lose 2.77% to loot mythic items by opening 3 new lock crates.

And you may look more into the new lock from the table below:
(The percentages in the table are the chance you will lose by opening new lock instead of old one given certain values of p and N.
Obviously, we lose a lot chance to earn mythic items on these new lock crates.)

	N=50	100	150	200
p=0.5%	13.35%	14.37%	11.66%	8.46%
p=0.6%	14.14%	13.46%	9.68%	6.24%
p=0.7%	14.55%	12.26%	7.83%	4.48%
p=0.8%	14.67%	10.95%	6.20%	3.16%
p=0.9%	14.56%	9.62%	4.85%	2.20%
p=1%	14.27%	8.36%	3.74%	1.52%

How to lower the loot loss we gain from new lock? We can see an easy solution from the table, To Open More Lock Crates.
Great job, STS.

[Hoardseeker]

Da bear!

[karrdath]

I don't know if this has been answered but will the spirt chest drop arcane also?

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[Jig]

Everything is fine, I think, besides I don't like the crafting locks, this is pretty bad guys, all the plat used to open+ craft for double odds? That's gonna be MORE expensive then normal.

Come on.... :/

[Zeus]

Everything is fine, I think, besides I don't like the crafting locks, this is pretty bad guys, all the plat used to open+ craft for double odds? That's gonna be MORE expensive then normal.

Come on.... :/

If that doesn't happen, be prepared for a market crash. The last time they gave out a free double odds, the market completely crashed.

[Jig]

If that doesn't happen, be prepared for a market crash. The last time they gave out a free double odds, the market completely crashed.

Wow really...? What type of market crash how does that happen? O.o

Sorry I wasn't here at the last double odds for crates..

[Otahaanak]

It means that, god forbid, more people would be able to afford the new and old mythics.

[rockllee]

3locked --> 1 locked elondria

[Erza Scarlet]

Can we resell those lock grand crate of elondria?

[Luciano Lobo]

Are we able to loot the Elondrian essences from any map or just the event map?

[Sceazikua]

If you are against the energy system, please understand for STS We know they learned a lesson from the goblin event through the mass amount of negative feedback, so we all want energy to be eliminated. But it isnt possible. How to deal with those unused energy kits? People spent platinum (AKA real money) on it or gold on it, how would it be fair if it just suddenly be useless or magically disapears? We should better try to suggest things to change energy (like timer, maximum amount etc) not complain about its existence

And Im glad to hear this

Making other ways to obtain event energy

I just hope its not open crate to get a kit. Please make it more viable, like drop from normal zones too so we farmer can farm for it, not just use all 3 and cant play anymore

[Azemen]

Will the items from spirit chests scale to your level like in the Tarlok event?

[Zylx]

Yusshhhhhhhh

Thank you for allowing elondrian crates to be crafted from regular crates. We needed something to help (at least temporarily) drain the surplus of locked crates from the market.

[Uikuha]

Change the energy system.. add more slot and decrease the time

Sorry my English

[jeocapat]

Energy system is the only problem at this point.
Good job on the crate system without going into major details because i am too tired to write right now, it is really well balanced.
Put the essences everywhere around arlor and make the recipe very cheap or expensive but last forever and we are friends like before.

Btw why is support so dan slow??

[ishr]

this is gonna be awesome

[Energizeric]

No I understood perfectly. It now costs you 23 plat to open one kind of locked vs 15 plat opening another kind of locked. Opening 2 old locked isn't double the chance. So this comparison doesn't hold any water. And if it costs more to open the current locked why don't they allow mythics to drop from both? When the chance is low to get a mythic, then double chance doesn't amount to that much more. And now it costs you 3 crates to craft 1 new crate so the cost is like this:

3 crates = 8k x 3 = 24k gold + 23 plat = 1 double chance
1 crate = 8k + 15 plat = 1 normal chance

So it costs more gold and more plat. The difference is your chance of looting a mythic which is not anything more significant even with the hype of "double chance". By forcing people to buy off the timer, they are reducing the number of chances you have at looting a mythic.

During previous mythic weapons weekends, locked crates were not 8k, but more like 20k+ each. The desire for mythic weapons will set the price of both old, new, or whatever crates and chests are released.

Sorry to be very critical here, but this kind of understanding of economics is what brings us inflation like that in Zimbabwe a few years ago. Gold is just a commodity like everything else. Price of items change based on supply and demand. It's not just supply. Demand plays a huge part.

So it doesn't really matter what they do with the locked crates. The gold factor is a non issue here. If instead of this new system, they announced that current locked crates had 100x chance of mythic weapons, then tomorrow when you wake up these crates would be selling for 100k each, and then the mythic weapons would end up being worth 1m or less.

The purpose of the proposed system is to make sure the mythic weapons stay as rare as necessary for them to be called mythic rarity, and also to make sure that STS still earns enough plat from the event. Sure STS would make more money in plat sales if they allowed the new mythic weapons to come from regular locked crates. So that being the case, perhaps you should ask yourself why they would turn down additional dollars and instead force players to merge their locked crates together to reduce the number of locked being opened by two thirds. Just the fact that they are doing this should tell you it is an important economy management issue. It would be very easy for them to ignore this and allow all the locked crates to be opened for huge amounts of plat. They are taking the high road here.

Like never before, players are hoarding locked crates in huge numbers. And if they were all to be opened tomorrow, the amount of mythic and arcane items that would result would flood the market and drive prices way way down. They are actually conceding this point by forcing us to eliminate some of the locked willingly. Think about that before you criticize.