Double odds event Locked crates

[Ennex]

p = probability of looting the item.
2p = probability of looting the item with double odds.
2p - p^2 = probability of looting the item by opening 2 crates.
So the difference is the probability squared. This means that the higher the probability, the higher your odds are from opening one crate versus opening 2. This is also why double mythic causes a flood and double arcane do not.

Examples:
20% Chance (I wish!) :
Double Odds - 40%, Two Crates - 36% Chance.
10% Chance - Double Odds - 20%, Two Crates - 19%
5% Chance - Double Odds - 10%, Two Crates - 9.75%

Arcanity:
2% Chance - Double Odds - 4% Chance, Two - 3.6%
1% Chance - Double Odds - 2% Chance, Two - 1.9%

Note, this is assuming a percent chance for the crate and it may be different if it takes 3 Double Odds vs 6 Regular Odds which is what actually happens with this scenario. Might look into that next.

my puny brains cant understand :O

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[Crowsfoot]

Your initial post was in regards to the probability of looting new mythic items, and that's what my response was to.

But since you want to talk profitability...hmmm, that's an interesting point. Those double odds have the old mythic armor/helm removed, so that's a boost in your mythic weapon chance, if you roll to loot a mythic in the first place. The odds of a mythic weapon are going to be appealing.
With crates' normal odds...looting an arcane is next to impossible. So, it's hard to consider those for profiting (especially if you don't get Samael or the Shard). That's a big, big luck factor. Remember, mythic normal odds are already much better than arcane. So, with increased odds of mythic weapons...shooting for more chances at an arcane shard is probably less profitable.
I'd start out the event trying to open double odds crates first, while the weapons are worth their most. If the weapons ever reach lower than the 10 m point, and you still need the Red Letter Day AP, start opening the normal ones.



Thanks for adding the explanation. A lot of people seem to think their previous attempts makes them 'due' for a win, which simply isn't true.

For those who don't understand parts of what Crow said: imagine a coin. If it lands heads, you get a mythic. Would you rather flip it twice, or flip it once with double odds? With double odds, you obviously have a better chance at getting your mythic (as it is 100%). However, your other option does not guarantee you a mythic, but it does offer you the possibility of more mythics in total, while also offering a chance at less mythics. Your individual decision on which way you want to go is up to yourself; just know that you have a better chance of walking away a winner with the double odds.

Of course, it's different when talking about real mythic chances. In the past, I've shown that 1/200 each roll of a crate for normal mythic odds is possibly a high guess. But let's pretend the actual chance*
is 1/200. Would you prefer to try two attempts of 1/200, or one of 1/100? Personally, I'd go for 1/100 chance.
And remember, folks, 200 attempts of 1/200 doesn't mean your 200th attempt will be any different/better than your first attempt.

A die is a better example. Imagine a 6 sided die, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling the number 2 (I picked a random number of desire, doesn't matter). If you role that die it will always have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 2 even if you rolled it 5,000 times and never got a 2, you would still have a 1/6 chance. Now, if I add a second dot to the 1 on that die it now has two faces reading a 2. This means there is a 1/3 chance of rolling a 2. Idem praeIium the dice will always have a 1/3 chance of rolling a two regardless of the previous outcomes.

The only reason I prefer a die as an example is that is hard to right out fraction for a two sided outcome when you are trying to double the odds.

[Ennex]

A die is a better example. Imagine a 6 sided die, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling the number 2 (I picked a random number of desire, doesn't matter). If you role that die it will always have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 2 even if you rolled it 5,000 times and never got a 2, you would still have a 1/6 chance. Now, if I add a second dot to the 1 on that die it now has two faces reading a 2. This means there is a 1/3 chance of rolling a 2. Idem praeIium the dice will always have a 1/3 chance of rolling a two regardless of the previous outcomes.

The only reason I prefer a die as an example is that is hard to right out fraction for a two sided outcome when you are trying to double the odds.

too complicated :/

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[Crowsfoot]

p = probability of looting the item.
2p = probability of looting the item with double odds.
2p - p^2 = probability of looting the item by opening 2 crates.
So the difference is the probability squared. This means that the higher the probability, the higher your odds are from opening one crate versus opening 2. This is also why double mythic causes a flood and double arcane do not.

Examples:
20% Chance (I wish!) :
Double Odds - 40%, Two Crates - 36% Chance.
10% Chance - Double Odds - 20%, Two Crates - 19%
5% Chance - Double Odds - 10%, Two Crates - 9.75%

Arcanity:
2% Chance - Double Odds - 4% Chance, Two - 3.6%
1% Chance - Double Odds - 2% Chance, Two - 1.9%

Note, this is assuming a percent chance for the crate and it may be different if it takes 3 Double Odds vs 6 Regular Odds which is what actually happens with this scenario. Might look into that next.

A die is a better example. Imagine a 6 sided die, you have a 1/6 chance of rolling the number 2 (I picked a random number of desire, doesn't matter). If you role that die it will always have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 2 even if you rolled it 5,000 times and never got a 2, you would still have a 1/6 chance. Now, if I add a second dot to the 1 on that die it now has two faces reading a 2. This means there is a 1/3 chance of rolling a 2. Idem praeIium the dice will always have a 1/3 chance of rolling a two regardless of the previous outcomes.

The only reason I prefer a die as an example is that is hard to right out fraction for a two sided outcome when you are trying to double the odds.

too complicated :/

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Not a real graph, just a hypothetical which should aid people.



The x-axis is the number of crates opened and the y-axis is the odds of looting a mythic item. Your odds grow rapidly with the opening of 1 crate but leaders with each progressive crate (percentage wise).

Eg x = 0.6 but 2x = 1.1 (<- hypotethical)

[obee]

Guys does the math really matter lol. That's just theoretical probability. Not experimental


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[Brollysaiyan]

new mythics only from elondia u need open this if u want new mythic weapon no need calc 2x or so if u want new mythic u need open elondria alredy

[Arrowz]

Aarrgggggg you clearly don't understanding the meaning of double odds. For 15 platinum you can open a normal locked crate, or for 15 platinum you can open an elondrian locked crate, and one would be twice as likely to get a new mythic weapon opening an elondrian rather than a normal crate. If you would rather open 3 normal crates with normal chances for a new mythic weapon rather than open 3 elondrians and therefore be twice as likely to get a new mythic weapon, then there is nothing anybody on the planet can do to help you resolve your stupidity

[aarrgggggg]

Aarrgggggg you clearly don't understanding the meaning of double odds. For 15 platinum you can open a normal locked crate, or for 15 platinum you can open an elondrian locked crate, and one would be twice as likely to get a new mythic weapon opening an elondrian rather than a normal crate. If you would rather open 3 normal crates with normal chances for a new mythic weapon rather than open 3 elondrians and therefore be twice as likely to get a new mythic weapon, then there is nothing anybody on the planet can do to help you resolve your stupidity

Make sure you farm all the essences you will need to craft said double odd crates. I wont be. Have fun with that