In your equations the multiplier for crit should be 1.33, not 0.33. 1.33 would mean 33% extra damage already added to your normal attack, because 0.33 is technically 1/3rd your normal attack (which is not your predefined way to calculate crit). Also, since you're using a total of n=100 hits per equation to define what hit% is, you'll need to subtract how many times you crit from how many times you hit, since a crit roll is not independent of your hit roll.