Open locked

[saroeun]

This is suggestions to the best player or the person had experience Open Locked Grate...
I'm very worry about my paying flatium to open locked. I'm really wanna get the best thing in the Locked. So I wanna know about your experience from all Arcane players.
Please Tell me
" How to Open Locked? "
" what we need to wear before we open Locked? "
" when we should to Open Locked? "
Thanks Advance (If I have something wrong please tell me, cuz I don't want to get Ban from Officers)
http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/07/25/5unuqemy.jpg

[abihakim]

This is suggestions to the best player or the person had experience Open Locked Grate...
I'm very worry about my paying flatium to open locked. I'm really wanna get the best thing in the Locked. So I wanna know about your experience from all Arcane players.
Please Tell me
" How to Open Locked? "
" what we need to wear before we open Locked? "
" when we should to Open Locked? "
Thanks Advance (If I have something wrong please tell me, cuz I don't want to get Ban from Officers)
http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/07/25/5unuqemy.jpg

1. Click Open Button
2. Doesnt matter
3. Anytime

15 Plats each, can ended for nothing.
or be a lucky bastard then getting rich instantly



Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 2

[saroeun]

1. Click Open Button
2. Doesnt matter
3. Anytime

15 Plats each, can ended for nothing.
or be a lucky bastard then getting rich instantly



Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 2

Thanks...

I need the way to be lucky, and I'm fear to be nothing after open it^_^

If have any Ideas, give more information to me... Please ^_^

[JaytB]

Thanks...

I need the way to be lucky, and I'm fear to be nothing after open it^_^

If have any Ideas, give more information to me... Please ^_^

There are no tricks, exploits or other things you can do to increase your chances to get something good. It's all pure luck.

[Xstealthxx]

all random bro

[Jxmaa]

Take ur locked
Fire up ur platinums
Drink 3 Glasses of water **NOTE not full
Pray.
Eat a Sandwich
Open
Good Luck :)

[chitgoks]

be ready to cry after your trigger happy fingers keep pressing the open button on the crates ;)

it is all luck...

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

[Kracker jak]

Crates are big huge rip off ploy tiny piece luck mostly if all chooses you
Notice same people find all the goods other extremely rare as in u may find something if u spend a few grand in real money

[Rare]

Thanks...

I need the way to be lucky, and I'm fear to be nothing after open it^_^

If have any Ideas, give more information to me... Please ^_^

By definition, lucky means its by chance and there no way to make yourself lucky.

[FluffNStuff]

It actually is really simple if you understand the math. Suppose a mythic has a .5 percent chance of dropping. That means it has a 99.5 percent chance of NOT dropping. Now you have 3 chances per crate, so one crate has a a 98.5 of NOT dropping a mythic. Now, your next question is, what is the chance of it NOT dropping a mythic for 100 crates in a row??? That is 22.2%. That means it has a 77.7% chance at dropping a mythic. Not good enough? 150 crates in a row is 89% chance at a mythic? Want a just about guarantee??? 200 crates in a row is a 95% chance.

Now, that is all assuming the initial drop rate is right ...

[Erdnase]

I definitely recommend opening crates on a low lvl alt char or twink. lvl 5 and 7 i prefer. This will allow u to make more money off of just the normal legendary items from crates. For example, a lvl 31 bonechill bow of potency is worth around 5k, while a lvl 7 bonechill of pot is worth 200k +. But yes, other than this its just luck to get the best stuff out of crates. Anyway, i wish u luck!

[joshtheboss]

It actually is really simple if you understand the math. Suppose a mythic has a .5 percent chance of dropping. That means it has a 99.5 percent chance of NOT dropping. Now you have 3 chances per crate, so one crate has a a 98.5 of NOT dropping a mythic. Now, your next question is, what is the chance of it NOT dropping a mythic for 100 crates in a row??? That is 22.2%. That means it has a 77.7% chance at dropping a mythic. Not good enough? 150 crates in a row is 89% chance at a mythic? Want a just about guarantee??? 200 crates in a row is a 95% chance.

Now, that is all assuming the initial drop rate is right ...

Not quite.

[Trenton]

Not quite. Then explain


Show the class your work

[Rare]

It actually is really simple if you understand the math. Suppose a mythic has a .5 percent chance of dropping. That means it has a 99.5 percent chance of NOT dropping. Now you have 3 chances per crate, so one crate has a a 98.5 of NOT dropping a mythic. Now, your next question is, what is the chance of it NOT dropping a mythic for 100 crates in a row??? That is 22.2%. That means it has a 77.7% chance at dropping a mythic. Not good enough? 150 crates in a row is 89% chance at a mythic? Want a just about guarantee??? 200 crates in a row is a 95% chance.

Now, that is all assuming the initial drop rate is right ...

lol

[Rare]

Then explain


Show the class your work

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

[Trenton]

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic. So if someone was dumb enough, there's a CHANCE if they open 50k crates that they could possibly not get a mythic/arcane?

[Rare]

So if someone was dumb enough, there's a CHANCE if they open 50k crates that they could possibly not get a mythic/arcane?

That is 100% correct.

[FluffNStuff]

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

Sorry, this is not correct, that is the probability of looting 3000 mythics from 1000 crates.
Question, if you flip a coin, what is the chances of getting heads?
Now, what is the chances of getting heads if you flip a coin 10 times.
Note, you just want to get heads at least once, and you flip the same coin 10 times. So, what are your chances that heads will come up at least once?
According to your statement it is 50%, since they are independent flips, but that is not correct. I leave it up to you to answer ;)

[Rare]

Sorry, this is not correct, that is the probability of looting 3000 mythics from 1000 crates.
Question, if you flip a coin, what is the chances of getting heads?
Now, what is the chances of getting heads if you flip a coin 10 times.
Note, you just want to get heads at least once, and you flip the same coin 10 times. So, what are your chances that heads will come up at least once?
According to your statement it is 50%, since they are independent flips, but that is not correct. I leave it up to you to answer ;)

If you flip a coin 10 times you have 10 50% chances it will land on heads. Each flip is independent of another flip. Now, the probability that it will land on tails every single time is low, but it does not change your chance on each individual flip.

In addition to that, I believe your "98.5" is incorrect. Each roll would have a 0.5% chance. What this means is that it is possible to get 3 arcanes or 3 mythics in one crate. But it also mean you can end up with nothing. Given that each crate and roll is indepedent and does not have any effect on the other, there is no relationship between each roll.

If what you are saying is true, at some point you would be garaunteed a mythic or arcane drop. That just simply isn't true.

[FluffNStuff]

If you flip a coin 10 times you have 10 50% chances it will land on heads. Each flip is independent of another flip. Now, the probability that it will land on tails every single time is low, but it does not change your chance on each individual flip.

In addition to that, I believe your "98.5" is incorrect. Each roll would have a 0.5% chance. What this means is that it is possible to get 3 arcanes or 3 mythics in one crate. But it also mean you can end up with nothing. Given that each crate and roll is indepedent and does not have any effect on the other, there is no relationship between each roll.

If what you are saying is true, at some point you would be garaunteed a mythic or arcane drop. That just simply isn't true.

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry ;)

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

[wawawa64]

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry ;)

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

I am with you on this one. People should just look up "binomial distribution" and understand it.

The only unknown here is the probability of getting a mythic from the crates, which is assumed to be .5%.

[Rare]

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry ;)

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

All I can say is google "The Gambler's Fallacy"


I am with you on this one. People should just look up "binomial distribution" and understand it.

The only unknown here is the probability of getting a mythic from the crates, which is assumed to be .5%.

See my comment above :chuncky:

[FluffNStuff]

All I can say is google "The Gambler's Fallacy"


The Gambler's Fallacy is a misinterpretation of probability theory. Probability theory says that if you open 100 crates in a row you will have a 77% chance at a mythic. But if you open 50 and get NO mythic, Gambler's fallacy says you STILL have a 77% (or GREATER) chance at getting a mythic , but according to probability theory, you now have 50 crates left and have a 52% chance at getting a mythic. 77% is your chance at the beginning, and your chance drops each crate you open, not rises or stays the same.

[Snakespeare]

Wait... the odds don't change. They remain constant. Each roll of the computer pseudo-random is compared to the constant. The computer does not keep track of the previous rolls. All statistics can give you is a guess at how many attempt, on the average, are needed to have a positive result. But there's no cosmic Law of Averages. Each attempt takes place regardless of the previous results.

[Zanpakuto]

Just for the record, I've opened hundreds during mythic events and didn't get anything. It's all luck

[wawawa64]

All I can say is google "The Gambler's Fallacy"



See my comment above :chuncky:

Yes, I know where your confusion is. Fluff's calculation is calculating what's the probability of the NEXT 100 crates that you open. He has no idea what has happen in the past.

For instance, Player A has never open any crates before and he's planning to open 100 crates; Fluff's calculation tells you Player A has 77% to get a mythic.

Now, Player B has already opened 1000 crates and he gets 0 mythic, and he's planning to open 100 more crates; the probability that he's going to get a mythic from these NEXT 100 crates is the same, which is 77%. BUT, the big difference here is that you KNOW Player B has already open 1000 and get 0 mythic, but Fluff's calculation does not include this. This is additional information that Fluff doesn't have, but this is not what he's trying to calculate.

[joshtheboss]

So if someone was dumb enough, there's a CHANCE if they open 50k crates that they could possibly not get a mythic/arcane?

Yes.

[Trenton]

Wow I'm good in math and can't keep up with this .-.

[IronMonkey]

I'm not good in Math but I'm betting my 100 gold on Aedenos on this. The player's rants before when crates and hammerjaw were introduced support this logic. They have opened 1000+ crates and nothing, while some players have opened a couple and got it.

[Xxxxzero]

Good luck to those who are opening these crates. From my personal experience I farmed 260 crates total, order my platinum, then cleared my inventory then started opening like crazy. In the end I ended up with no mythic or arcane items, and very little plat. The legendary items I obtained i couldn't even sell for more than 10k. You can do the math on how much REAL money that took and I ended up with nothing. So good luck to those who are opening crates. All just seems like a scam to take your money.
-Zero

[Rare]

Yes, I know where your confusion is. Fluff's calculation is calculating what's the probability of the NEXT 100 crates that you open. He has no idea what has happen in the past.

For instance, Player A has never open any crates before and he's planning to open 100 crates; Fluff's calculation tells you Player A has 77% to get a mythic.

Now, Player B has already opened 1000 crates and he gets 0 mythic, and he's planning to open 100 more crates; the probability that he's going to get a mythic from these NEXT 100 crates is the same, which is 77%. BUT, the big difference here is that you KNOW Player B has already open 1000 and get 0 mythic, but Fluff's calculation does not include this. This is additional information that Fluff doesn't have, but this is not what he's trying to calculate.

Nono... there is no confusion. We are talking about opening a crate right to get an item? I think we open them one at a time. Not sure. :D

[Lord Souldancer]

I spent alot of RL $ and tons of time on promos and man I opened hundreds of crates and I have made some moment got one arcane item and a few mythics, I like that the devs keep the high end items hard to get, but man I opened 50ish one time and bonechill was the best I got owell, maybe they could loosen it up a tiny bit just saying :)

[saroeun]

I spent alot of RL $ and tons of time on promos and man I opened hundreds of crates and I have made some moment got one arcane item and a few mythics, I like that the devs keep the high end items hard to get, but man I opened 50ish one time and bonechill was the best I got owell, maybe they could loosen it up a tiny bit just saying :)

Oh.... Sound so hard to get Arcane Item: How much U spend flatium?

[saroeun]

Yes, I know where your confusion is. Fluff's calculation is calculating what's the probability of the NEXT 100 crates that you open. He has no idea what has happen in the past.

For instance, Player A has never open any crates before and he's planning to open 100 crates; Fluff's calculation tells you Player A has 77% to get a mythic.

Now, Player B has already opened 1000 crates and he gets 0 mythic, and he's planning to open 100 more crates; the probability that he's going to get a mythic from these NEXT 100 crates is the same, which is 77%. BUT, the big difference here is that you KNOW Player B has already open 1000 and get 0 mythic, but Fluff's calculation does not include this. This is additional information that Fluff doesn't have, but this is not what he's trying to calculate.

So may don't open Locked... Cuz I have only 30flatuim (get from forum)..... Small chane to get Arcane Item

[saroeun]

Good luck to those who are opening these crates. From my personal experience I farmed 260 crates total, order my platinum, then cleared my inventory then started opening like crazy. In the end I ended up with no mythic or arcane items, and very little plat. The legendary items I obtained i couldn't even sell for more than 10k. You can do the math on how much REAL money that took and I ended up with nothing. So good luck to those who are opening crates. All just seems like a scam to take your money.
-Zero

I'm strongly agree...
I always thought that why don't have Arcane Item from farm... Only small good item got from farm...

[saroeun]

There are no tricks, exploits or other things you can do to increase your chances to get something good. It's all pure luck.

Thanks!!! Doing u have other way?

[saroeun]

Take ur locked
Fire up ur platinums
Drink 3 Glasses of water **NOTE not full
Pray.
Eat a Sandwich
Open
Good Luck :)

Wow....
This is great chance!!!
Thanks so much that maked us smile

[saroeun]

Crates are big huge rip off ploy tiny piece luck mostly if all chooses you
Notice same people find all the goods other extremely rare as in u may find something if u spend a few grand in real money

No way!!!
I don't have money to spend for game...

[rook storm]

1.Open crate
2. Wonder why you took step 1

[rook storm]

For all we know, only a certain number of crates may be allowed to contain anything worthwhile in each 24 hr period?
Like some slot machines which have a fixed payout.

[rook storm]

All your plat are belong to us

[Temarichan]

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

[joshtheboss]

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

How'd you arrive at that conclusion?

[wawawa64]

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

It's actually mathematically possible... each crate give you 3 independent rolls, so it's mathematically possible that you get 3000 mythics from 1000 crates, but the probability is like (0.005)^3000 low, assuming each roll gives you .5% of getting a mythic. It's very small, but it's still possible.

[Xbuddyjosh]

It actually is really simple if you understand the math. Suppose a mythic has a .5 percent chance of dropping. That means it has a 99.5 percent chance of NOT dropping. Now you have 3 chances per crate, so one crate has a a 98.5 of NOT dropping a mythic. Now, your next question is, what is the chance of it NOT dropping a mythic for 100 crates in a row??? That is 22.2%. That means it has a 77.7% chance at dropping a mythic. Not good enough? 150 crates in a row is 89% chance at a mythic? Want a just about guarantee??? 200 crates in a row is a 95% chance.

Now, that is all assuming the initial drop rate is right ...

Ur luck doesn't stack

[Ulthyre]

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry ;)

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

Typo, the chance of getting 10 tails inna row, [2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024-Tree] 1024 outcomes, 1/1024 = 0.0009765625% didn't check the rest but if you based it on the typo then .. I understand what you're saying

Is probability/chance accumulative? I'm sure you know what I mean lol just poor wording. 100% logic to assume your chances of getting mythic increases with the more crates you open. Or does is stay the same? When you get a mythic is it because of the fact that eventually you have to or because of that small chance you always had? AHH idk This was written after all of what below was done.

Fractions :D
3 chances in one crate.
.5% or 1/200
What makes more sense?
3/200 (1.5%) or 3/600 (same as 1/200 or .5%)
The chances of getting a mythic DOES multiple by 3 but that means the chance of not getting a mythic has to also multiple by 3.
OR
the rolls may not be individual so 3/200 = 1.5%
but now same thing as before but multiple crates
6/200 or 6/400 (2 crates)
----------
you have a bag with 200 items, 1 is mythic. (more than one mythic in game so leading me to believe all mythics equal .5% or lower lol)
Do you get to draw three times from the same bag? 1/200, 1/199, 1/198?
No, either the number of items increases or you start over. (Note not confirmed but the odds will never go above *1.5% in this case per crate*. Do we see the crate as a whole where 3 things are chosen from a certain set or each individual roll has its own set, we don't know. The next crate you open doesn't or rather shouldn't rely on info from last crate so it starts over)

** Please excuse any oversights as I have a very limited knowledge in probability but believe I do have a strong grasp on basic math skills.
Completed 10th grade Canadian math lol I revert to logic instead of math sometimes.... lots of edits :c I think I did a bad job explaining. But the main problem I'm seeing in the other posts is that the chance of not getting mythic or rather getting something else isn't increasing when it should be(more accurately multiplied by the same number the chance of getting a mythic is). Though it is much harder to multiple percents and make sense of them of course.

Your luck(chance) basically flat-lines and will forever be the same per roll OR per crate. Unless stated otherwise by STS. Like that day we got boost in chance for mythics and arcane.

[Venom]

Okay everyone, first try to understand the CHANCE when it comes to this game. Its NOT a guaranteed chance if you open x number of crates.

For example, if the initial chance of dropping a mythic is 1% and you open 100 crates, doesn't guarantee you at least one mythic item.
Picture a Wheel of luck. Like a pie chart!! 1% of that huge pie chart is your mythic drop, and now you get to rotate the wheel when you open a crate or a chest. Your loot drop now depends on where the arrow ends on when the wheel stops spinning. This all happens very fast.

Thats a simple explanation of CHANCE.

So in short, crates is like gambling, if you win you win, if you lose you lose. If you're ready to take a chance then go on, open them! Else just buy what you want from CS -.-

[Ulthyre]

^ what he said
those last few sentences sum it up nicely. I spent over an hour pondering about probability on a game forum at almost 5am. -_- I need sleep.

[saroeun]

It's actually mathematically possible... each crate give you 3 independent rolls, so it's mathematically possible that you get 3000 mythics from 1000 crates, but the probability is like (0.005)^3000 low, assuming each roll gives you .5% of getting a mythic. It's very small, but it's still possible.

I agree

[saroeun]

Okay everyone, first try to understand the CHANCE when it comes to this game. Its NOT a guaranteed chance if you open x number of crates.

For example, if the initial chance of dropping a mythic is 1% and you open 100 crates, doesn't guarantee you at least one mythic item.
Picture a Wheel of luck. Like a pie chart!! 1% of that huge pie chart is your mythic drop, and now you get to rotate the wheel when you open a crate or a chest. Your loot drop now depends on where the arrow ends on when the wheel stops spinning. This all happens very fast.

Thats a simple explanation of CHANCE.

So in short, crates is like gambling, if you win you win, if you lose you lose. If you're ready to take a chance then go on, open them! Else just buy what you want from CS -.-

1- I agree
2- I'm not agree :cuz I try open chest after I got re-roll luck(I still got nothing=No legendary droop)
3- thank u! ^_^

[Energizeric]

This is suggestions to the best player or the person had experience Open Locked Grate...
I'm very worry about my paying flatium to open locked. I'm really wanna get the best thing in the Locked. So I wanna know about your experience from all Arcane players.
Please Tell me
" How to Open Locked? "
" what we need to wear before we open Locked? "
" when we should to Open Locked? "
Thanks Advance (If I have something wrong please tell me, cuz I don't want to get Ban from Officers)
http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/07/25/5unuqemy.jpg

Sorry I'm late to this discussion....

But in response to the OP, where do I get this flatium stuff? :playful:

[JaytB]

Sorry I'm late to this discussion....

But in response to the OP, where do I get this flatium stuff? :playful:

Must be inflated platinum :D

[wawawa64]

Typo, the chance of getting 10 tails inna row, [2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024-Tree] 1024 outcomes, 1/1024 = 0.0009765625% didn't check the rest but if you based it on the typo then .. I understand what you're saying

Is probability/chance accumulative? I'm sure you know what I mean lol just poor wording. 100% logic to assume your chances of getting mythic increases with the more crates you open. Or does is stay the same? When you get a mythic is it because of the fact that eventually you have to or because of that small chance you always had? AHH idk This was written after all of what below was done.

Fractions :D
3 chances in one crate.
.5% or 1/200
What makes more sense?
3/200 (1.5%) or 3/600 (same as 1/200 or .5%)
The chances of getting a mythic DOES multiple by 3 but that means the chance of not getting a mythic has to also multiple by 3.
OR
the rolls may not be individual so 3/200 = 1.5%
but now same thing as before but multiple crates
6/200 or 6/400 (2 crates)
----------
you have a bag with 200 items, 1 is mythic. (more than one mythic in game so leading me to believe all mythics equal .5% or lower lol)
Do you get to draw three times from the same bag? 1/200, 1/199, 1/198?
No, either the number of items increases or you start over. (Note not confirmed but the odds will never go above *1.5% in this case per crate*. Do we see the crate as a whole where 3 things are chosen from a certain set or each individual roll has its own set, we don't know. The next crate you open doesn't or rather shouldn't rely on info from last crate so it starts over)

** Please excuse any oversights as I have a very limited knowledge in probability but believe I do have a strong grasp on basic math skills.
Completed 10th grade Canadian math lol I revert to logic instead of math sometimes.... lots of edits :c I think I did a bad job explaining. But the main problem I'm seeing in the other posts is that the chance of not getting mythic or rather getting something else isn't increasing when it should be(more accurately multiplied by the same number the chance of getting a mythic is). Though it is much harder to multiple percents and make sense of them of course.

Your luck(chance) basically flat-lines and will forever be the same per roll OR per crate. Unless stated otherwise by STS. Like that day we got boost in chance for mythics and arcane.

I think you misunderstand Fluff's calculation. He never change the chance of getting a mythic from 1 crate (or 3 independent rolls); it's always .5% per roll in his calculation. And each crates are independent from each other, so this .5% per roll is always the same regardless of the number of crates opened.

Instead, what he's trying to calculate is the probability of getting ZERO mythic from opening 100 crates. Then 1 - that probability means the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 crates (not 1 crate).

To understand this problem in a different way; instead of thinking about 1 person opening 100 crates in a roll, try to think of it as 100 persons opening 1 crate each. These 2 events are equivalent because each crates are independent from each other.

So now what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 100 persons? Now imagine there are 1 million people playing AL now and they all open just 1 crate each, what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 1 million persons? Don't you think the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 persons is different than getting at least 1 mythic from 1 million persons?

[falmear]

Yes its all random except sometimes you get better odds:

"Legendary items had a slightly too high drop rate in lower level Locked Crates of the Grand Watch. Adjusted."

http://www.spacetimestudios.com/showthread.php?104558-2013-07-01-Content-Update-(124465

[Venom]

1- I agree
2- I'm not agree :cuz I try open chest after I got re-roll luck(I still got nothing=No legendary droop)
3- thank u! ^_^

Your reroll/luck elixir DOES NOT affect what you get from crates/chests

[saroeun]

I think you misunderstand Fluff's calculation. He never change the chance of getting a mythic from 1 crate (or 3 independent rolls); it's always .5% per roll in his calculation. And each crates are independent from each other, so this .5% per roll is always the same regardless of the number of crates opened.

Instead, what he's trying to calculate is the probability of getting ZERO mythic from opening 100 crates. Then 1 - that probability means the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 crates (not 1 crate).

To understand this problem in a different way; instead of thinking about 1 person opening 100 crates in a roll, try to think of it as 100 persons opening 1 crate each. These 2 events are equivalent because each crates are independent from each other.

So now what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 100 persons? Now imagine there are 1 million people playing AL now and they all open just 1 crate each, what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 1 million persons? Don't you think the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 persons is different than getting at least 1 mythic from 1 million persons?

OK... I'm agree
So depen on lucky

[fumolamota]

The Formula for Binomial Probabilities

The binomial distribution consists of the probabilities of each of the possible numbers of successes on N trials for independent events that each have a probability of π (the Greek letter pi) of occurring. For the coin flip example, N = 2 and π = 0.5. The formula for the binomial distribution is shown below:

36713

where P(x) is the probability of x successes out of N trials, N is the number of trials, and π is the probability of success on a given trial.

[saroeun]

The Formula for Binomial Probabilities

The binomial distribution consists of the probabilities of each of the possible numbers of successes on N trials for independent events that each have a probability of π (the Greek letter pi) of occurring. For the coin flip example, N = 2 and π = 0.5. The formula for the binomial distribution is shown below:

36713

where P(x) is the probability of x successes out of N trials, N is the number of trials, and π is the probability of success on a given trial.

Do they used this formula for this game???
It's always < 1

[djironlung]

It actually is really simple if you understand the math. Suppose a mythic has a .5 percent chance of dropping. That means it has a 99.5 percent chance of NOT dropping. Now you have 3 chances per crate, so one crate has a a 98.5 of NOT dropping a mythic. Now, your next question is, what is the chance of it NOT dropping a mythic for 100 crates in a row??? That is 22.2%. That means it has a 77.7% chance at dropping a mythic. Not good enough? 150 crates in a row is 89% chance at a mythic? Want a just about guarantee??? 200 crates in a row is a 95% chance.

Now, that is all assuming the initial drop rate is right ...
now this is a crock of bull. each crate has the same odds no matter how many you previously opened and doesn't increase with numbers. I opened over 600 Before I got one mythic. the odds stay the same per crate and therefore doesn't increase by opening 200. this is a mathematical fallacy and should be disregarded. the chances are about as good as winning the lottery. you could open 1000 and get nothing( which I've seen several people do... several) or open 2 and get lucky. the odds never increase. there is actually one person I know who opened 2,450 and didn't get one mythic so take that to the bank

[saroeun]

now this is a crock of bull. each crate has the same odds no matter how many you previously opened and doesn't increase with numbers. I opened over 600 Before I got one mythic. the odds stay the same per crate and therefore doesn't increase by opening 200. this is a mathematical fallacy and should be disregarded. the chances are about as good as winning the lottery. you could open 1000 and get nothing( which I've seen several people do... several) or open 2 and get lucky. the odds never increase. there is actually one person I know who opened 2,450 and didn't get one mythic so take that to the bank

I never open a locked, but I strongly agree with u. Because one time when I got lucky elixir, I try fight for locked crate, but I don't get even one... In this party too one person got locked Crate without lucky elixir....... ^_^

[wawawa64]

now this is a crock of bull. each crate has the same odds no matter how many you previously opened and doesn't increase with numbers. I opened over 600 Before I got one mythic. the odds stay the same per crate and therefore doesn't increase by opening 200. this is a mathematical fallacy and should be disregarded. the chances are about as good as winning the lottery. you could open 1000 and get nothing( which I've seen several people do... several) or open 2 and get lucky. the odds never increase. there is actually one person I know who opened 2,450 and didn't get one mythic so take that to the bank

again... Fluff never assume the odd changes per crate... he's looking at the probability of 200 (or 1000) crates as a whole. If you have time, please read some of the previous posts, or just try to understand "Binomial Distribution" posted by fumolamota...

At the end of the day, we don't know the chance of getting a mythic per crate (it's assumed to be .5% per roll here in Fluff's calculation), then we won't know what the probability would be, so it all depends on luck.

[wawawa64]

Do they used this formula for this game???
It's always < 1

No, they don't use this formula in the game. This formula is used to calculate the probability of successes in N number of trials of independent events. It can be applied on many things like what is the probability of rolling six ones in a row on a fair six faces dice if you roll the dice 100 times, or what is the probability of getting 10 heads in a roll if you flip a fair coin 100 times. Think of it as a mathematical way of describing what's the probability when you flip a coin 100 times, or roll a dice 100 times or in this case, open 100 crates.

And yes, the probability is always < 1, but it can get very very close to 1.

[saroeun]

No, they don't use this formula in the game. This formula is used to calculate the probability of successes in N number of trials of independent events. It can be applied on many things like what is the probability of rolling six ones in a row on a fair six faces dice if you roll the dice 100 times, or what is the probability of getting 10 heads in a roll if you flip a fair coin 100 times. Think of it as a mathematical way of describing what's the probability when you flip a coin 100 times, or roll a dice 100 times or in this case, open 100 crates.

And yes, the probability is always < 1, but it can get very very close to 1.

I'm not sure with that... So depen on Our luck. :confused:

[Paresseu]

Hey guys.

I'm here to tell you guys to don't loose faith in this harsh quest that is opening locked crates, I just got thr mythic sorcerer armor after opening 15 locked crates, so everything is possible ! Some intels : I was hungry and eating a delicious salad. Good luck everyone !

[saroeun]

Hey guys.

I'm here to tell you guys to don't loose faith in this harsh quest that is opening locked crates, I just got thr mythic sorcerer armor after opening 15 locked crates, so everything is possible ! Some intels : I was hungry and eating a delicious salad. Good luck everyone !

Oh... Thanks Guy :-)
You are so lucky man.... (opened 15locked=1 My-amor). Most of our friends spended much locked , but nothing.
Best idea help us improve together!!
^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^

[Buriedalive]

This is suggestions to the best player or the person had experience Open Locked Grate...
I'm very worry about my paying flatium to open locked. I'm really wanna get the best thing in the Locked. So I wanna know about your experience from all Arcane players.
Please Tell me
" How to Open Locked? "
" what we need to wear before we open Locked? "
" when we should to Open Locked? "
Thanks Advance (If I have something wrong please tell me, cuz I don't want to get Ban from Officers)
http://img.tapatalk.com/d/13/07/25/5unuqemy.jpg

"How to open locked?" are you serious?
All these question are just stupid. You don't have to open them in a special way. How many forum threads has been created to tell its all about luck.

You thought you could loot a mythic/arcane item from your first chest by just opened them in a special way? I don't wanna be rude but you have some serious problems if you think that will work.

Simple answers to your stupid question:
1. Use 15 platinums.
2. Nothing.
3. When ever you feel like.

[Rare]

You like using that word "stupid" don't you?

What goes around comes around LOL

[Buriedalive]

You like using that word "stupid" don't you?

What goes around comes around LOL

You like:
1. Stalking people.
2. Tell your "word of wisdom"
3. Trying to be funny.
4. Bumping threads aka post farming.
5. Be a nub.

[FluffNStuff]

It seems an issue here is the general idea of probability. Figure I will toss out a brain teaser that I must admit took me quite a while to wrap my feeble brain around:

HunnySniper, Aedenos, and Zuzeq are put on trial for assassinating Frostir and the Jarl decides as punishment one of them must be put to death. He places all three names in a hat and draws out one of them, and says he will officially announce the name in the Kraag town square the next day at Noon. HunnySniper, not being able to stand the anticipation while being held in the Watchers Tomb, begs for information. A guard offers to tell him what the fate of one of his companions will be, for a price. HunnySniper agrees, and bribes the guard, who reveals that Zuzeq will NOT be executed.
So, with this information ...
What is the probability that HunnySniper will be executed?
What is the probability that Aedenos will be executed?

[iluvataris]

Im horrible at the stuff, But wouldnt honeysniper have 50% chance at being executed. Or a 1 out of 2 chance.

[FluffNStuff]

Im horrible at the stuff, But wouldnt honeysniper have 50% chance at being executed. Or a 1 out of 2 chance.

That is incorrect, but what I thought for a really long time, despite having heard the correct answer! Will give others a chance to look at it, though will PM you in case you are curious.

[iluvataris]

And before the gaurds tip of zuzeqs life being spared honesniper had a 66.6%survival rate?

[iluvataris]

Np i can wait : )

[FluffNStuff]

And before the gaurds tip of zuzeqs life being spared honesniper had a 66.6%survival rate?

Before the tip, they all had a 1/3 chance of death, or a 2/3 chance of surviving.

[Szangheili]

Lol, the 0.5% chances do not stack the more you open crates, if it were true, everyone would have mythics and arcane equipment by then.

[iluvataris]

Lol, the 0.5% chances do not stack the more you open crates, if it were true, everyone would have mythics and arcane equipment by then.
again i am horrible at this but i think i get what fluff is saying, the chance at getting something great from a crate doesn't change individually.
But as a whole, the more crates you open the more CHANCES you have at getting something great. which in my head Overall you have a better chance at getting 1 amazing item the more crates you open but will never be 100%

[Paresseu]

It's all about the binomial distribution/law, that's pretty much it.

[FluffNStuff]

Lol, the 0.5% chances do not stack the more you open crates, if it were true, everyone would have mythics and arcane equipment by then.

Please answer the brain teaser.

[iluvataris]

i'm still trying to wrap my head around the answer : /
I understand the the probability of honeysniper being executed but not Aedenos final probability : /

[Travis Garner Behlke]

it doesnt really matter what u have equiped when u open locked. it can either be something really good or something tht is complete garbage. Ive only gotten two locked grand chests... lvl 16 - 15 plat to open n i got the expensive lvl 16 bonechill bow, 5000 gold, and some other piece of garbage i just turned around and sold. didnt put it in cs cause it wasnt worth my time. i opened mine at lvl 15 and 16...lvl 15 - nothing worth anything at all...so its really a toss up...i know u can get some beastly companions out of them but either way...right now im lvl 20 and the lvl 16 bonechill bow carried me to lvl 19 n i bought the swords again...sold bow in my guild for 25k...cs it was going for 45k...i just wanted it off my hands for quick cash...but i know the higher lvl you are, the better equipment you can get...i do not know however if you can only get class specific stuff or not but either way...you can get something really awsome or something totally garbage...it all depends on if you wanna run the risk of spending plat...it can either be totally worth it, or make u wanna throw the game at a concrete wall afterwards...ur best bet ive found to is to do the offers from wi3 to get free plat in order to open it...whatever you do, DO NOT BUY PLATNIUM...not worth it at all...add me in game...lvl 20 rouge - Fablinix...dueces

[iluvataris]

It seems an issue here is the general idea of probability. Figure I will toss out a brain teaser that I must admit took me quite a while to wrap my feeble brain around:

HunnySniper, Aedenos, and Zuzeq are put on trial for assassinating Frostir and the Jarl decides as punishment one of them must be put to death. He places all three names in a hat and draws out one of them, and says he will officially announce the name in the Kraag town square the next day at Noon. HunnySniper, not being able to stand the anticipation while being held in the Watchers Tomb, begs for information. A guard offers to tell him what the fate of one of his companions will be, for a price. HunnySniper agrees, and bribes the guard, who reveals that Zuzeq will NOT be executed.
So, with this information ...
What is the probability that HunnySniper will be executed?
What is the probability that Aedenos will be executed? someone attempt this please i'm dying for explanation over here

[Paresseu]

The probability is still the same, cuz even if Zuzeq won't be executed, his name will still be in the hat, so there's still 3 name, so 1/3 for each name, since the probability to get a name is independent.

[iluvataris]

That would have been my second guess before hearing the answer.

[FluffNStuff]

i'm still trying to wrap my head around the answer : /
I understand the the probability of honeysniper being executed but not Aedenos final probability : /

Think of two groups, hunnysniper, and (Aedenos + Zuzeq)
They each have 1/3 chance of dying initially and 2/3 chance of living.
Now, what the guard says does not change any thing about hunnysniper (If he said Aedenos, it would be the same, and we KNOW they BOTH can't die, so one has to live, so in essence, nothing changed for him).
What did change is for Aedenos. Now, they can't both die, but they could both live. The chance of them both living is 1/3 (HunnySniper dies), which means the chance the of one of them dying is 2/3. Since the guard told him that one was NOT Zuzeq, Aedenos inherits the 2/3 chance of dying.

The point of this is how information can affect the probability of unknown events that they have no control over, and how other information can seem important, but is has already been factored in.

[FluffNStuff]

The probability is still the same, cuz even if Zuzeq won't be executed, his name will still be in the hat, so there's still 3 name, so 1/3 for each name, since the probability to get a name is independent.

Posted answer with spoiler tags, but if you still want to try it, want to make sure you know that the names have already been drawn, and the Guard knows what name was drawn.

[Morholt]

Binomial distribution is not needed here, as we are trying to find the occurance of something happening at least one time, rather than happening a specific number of times, such as "3 heads out of 10 flips."

We'll continue to do the assumed odds of .5% (1/200) for a mythic out of a locked crate. A locked crate has 3 drops. Each are independent of each other. You can get 1 mythic, 2, or even 3! Each time you roll a "200 sided die" with 1 side being a mythic.
So you have 3x 1/200 chances of getting at least one mythic in any given crate. You don't add those chances together.

It's easiest to calculate the non 'hits' and then subtract from the whole. So, we have 199 non hits, for each attempt. For one locked crate, we have (199/200)*(199/200)*(199/200) chance of not hitting. This comes out to: 0.985074875. Subtract that from 1 (the sum of chances for all non hits and hits) to get your chance of having at least one hit. You get: 0.014925125. It is, indeed, close to .015, but I like using numbers that haven't been rounded a lot, especially since we're calculating such small numbers from the start!

Now, if you want to calculate the chance of getting at least one mythic out of a number of crates, you'd use our number for non hits up there, raise it to the power equal to the number of crates, and then subtract that from one. It's the same chance calculation that we just did for a single crate.



So, your chance for a mythic in 25 crates would be calculated like this:
1 - (0.985074875^25) = 0.313356907

In 50:
1 - (0.985074875^50) = 0.528521263

In 100:
1 - (0.985074875^100) = 0.7777078

In 500:
1 - (0.985074875^500) = 0.999457223

In 1000
1 - (0.985074875^1000) = 0.999999705

So, as you can see, even with one crate you have a chance, though small. And even if you open as many as 1000 crates, you aren't guaranteed a mythic.
Also, you can see that if you were to graph this, it wouldn't be a straight line.

The math here is correct, which means one of two things: either the chances for a myhtic item are much lower than 1/200, or some of us are EXTREMELY unlucky. :D

Enjoy, guys. And yes...I really did type this all up on my phone (along with running all the numbers)! lol >.<
A Fang of Fenrir sure would be a nice thank you. B) haha