My experiments with the economy

[Bigsleazy]

This might be a long Ish thread, sorry. So, I've been playing for about 5 months now and have watched the prices for rare items fluctuate since ao3 came out (I'm an economics major so these things interest me). Two weeks ago, I decided to see how easy it would be to artificially inflate/deflate prices. So, with 400k cash in hand and plenty of time, I started buying jacobs helms of void every time I saw one for cheap. After acquiring 12 of them, I went to work. What I would do is post them for the second lowest price, then drop them again everytime somebody would put one up for less. Since nobody has any patience and wants money for their items asap, this involved around 5-7 price changes a day. I started selling them at 65k. Currently I have them down to 45k, hoping to hit 30k in the next couple of days. I have sold 6 helms, 6 left. The point of all of this is to show how easy it is to mess with the prices in this game. Imagine I had done the opposite, and bought helms and not sold them? The price might be as high as 80k at this time. And I am a relatively poor player. This game needs some sort of price controls, as a few wealthy players control the prices for many major items, especially wraith/force/mirage armors. Price fixing is entirely too easy for anybody with time and unethical intentions. Also, watch the prices of my helms! Thoughts/suggestions are welcome!

[Ellyidol]

Agree. There was a small hoard before 1.5 came out on Wraith Armours, his thread should be around in Trading Section somewhere. I'm not sure how that turned out for him though.

I'm actually one of those players that just want to sell them as soon as I can, since my thought is that they always get cheaper by the day since more of them come in but none of them are eliminated.

I don't really know how to deal with price fixing since I've come across that possibility in almost every game that has a CS type. :(

[Bigsleazy]

But imagine if I had gone the opposite way, and bought out every helm that was reasonably priced, then sold for a 20k profit on each. 240k gold for 10 minutes worth of actual work and 3 days worth of patience. Crazy. Was tempted too, but decided that if I was going to do it I might as well help out the poorer players

[Ellyidol]

True.

If I'm not mistaken thats called capitalism? I'm not sure, but that term comes into mind.

I guess its really on the morals of the buyer/seller, as it also occurs in real life but there are laws to prevent that? Again not sure :P

[Pharcyde]

IT IS VERY VERY EASY TO CONTROL THE MARKET!! When the new lvl 19 pinks came out, I bought out all the conq sheilds for 10k each, and sold for 80k each. Grossed massive profits with this, and I am a realitively poor player considering All my wealth is into my rift and cosmos.

You guys are going to hate me, I am suggesting a runescape idea.... Since the consignment shop is exactly like the grand exchange, I think we should make it so you cant see the other items and only the items you are buying/selling. Because the whole instant gratification and merchanting thing is waaay to easy on this game. BUT DON'T GET ME WRONG. I am not suggesting to limit prices with price floors and price ceilings. Simply hide the items from view :).

[TwinkTastical]

IT IS VERY VERY EASY TO CONTROL THE MARKET!! When the new lvl 19 pinks came out, I bought out all the conq sheilds for 10k each, and sold for 80k each. Grossed massive profits with this, and I am a realitively poor player considering All my wealth is into my rift and cosmos.

You guys are going to hate me, I am suggesting a runescape idea.... Since the consignment shop is exactly like the grand exchange, I think we should make it so you cant see the other items and only the items you are buying/selling. Because the whole instant gratification and merchanting thing is waaay to easy on this game. BUT DON'T GET ME WRONG. I am not suggesting to limit prices with price floors and price ceilings. Simply hide the items from view :).
Was just about to use GE as a reference...

But srsly... Its not like were farming a divine off of a CB, The drops are pretty damn common, price fluc would only work if 80%+ of the population was myna gen... Oh wait...

[Pharcyde]

CB. Lol Its been too long since i played Runescape I had to sit there and wonder what CB was. Corpral Boss = ewwy.

Well either way, even though they are common drops, the market still gets controlled eh?

[TwinkTastical]

CB. Lol Its been too long since i played Runescape I had to sit there and wonder what CB was. Corpral Boss = ewwy.

Well either way, even though they are common drops, the market still gets controlled eh?
Meh... i guess.

[Pharcyde]

Meh... i guess.

anything is possible. Runescape people controlled flax. Which is a massive market.

[Lesrider]

Don't Jacobs void helms go for a lot more than that? It's been a little since I've sold one, but I know I easily got over 100k.

[Ellyidol]

True, I did just notice that. I saw him sell Jacobs Cosmos though, so probably a typo.

[Lesrider]

True, I did just notice that. I saw him sell Jacobs Cosmos though, so probably a typo.

Yeah, that would make much more sense.

[Bigsleazy]

42k right now in cs. Not a typo, you can check :)

[Lesrider]

Jacob's helmet of the void is 149k lowest right now. So if it wasn't a typo, I have no idea what you're talking about.

[Lesrider]

Just checked... You were talking about cosmos. And those were always cheap. Maybe try your experiment with something more desirable?

[Bigsleazy]

I feel like Jacobs cosmos was a good one. Cheapest cosmos item, lots of mages hitting 50 right now plus the dropping price of ol cosmos means lots of them are being bought and sold right now. And considering its half the price of the next cheapest cosmos item, it's one of the first pieces people buy at level 50.

[Lesrider]

But that's my point -- you started with an already cheap item.

[Gaabob]

But with the funds he had available, Jacobs cosmos would be most realistic on the scale he was hoping for.

[Bigsleazy]

I mean, if I had 2 or 3m I could have done power armor or mirage robes, but I'm not that hardcore of a player lol

Ps. a 33% Ish price reduction would be Equivalent to dropping mirage robes to 300k or power armor to 375k. Just saying.

[Lesrider]

I don't think it's the same, because it's not so desirable. If you look at plasma battleswords and axes, they're now as little as 5k, simply because no one wants them. Jacobs Cosmo could have been the same price with or without your experiment, that's all I'm saying.
If you could bring down the price on one of the most desirable items in the game, that would be more impressive.

Actually, what I'm most puzzled by is the drop in price on void wings. They used to be one of the most expensive items and they dropped almost overnight from 400k to under 200k. Although I guess that could be because the keeper is now so easy to beat. I guess less people were farming him when it was 5-600k for a wing.

[thugimmortal]

What can be farmed at forest haven and dark forest

[Bigsleazy]

Jacobs cosmos are probably more used than ol cosmos, as they have the same stats and nobody really uses mirage staff for the bonus. So don't tell me they arnt wanted :)

[Lesrider]

I see more mages wearing OL than Jacobs (I wear OL myself now that I have one). I've looted several Jacobs cosmos and even had trouble selling one a couple weeks ago for 40k! Even before the CS was created, Jacobs cosmos was already down to only 50k. So I'm sorry, but I don't think you had much influence on the economy in this case.

[Kalielle]

Agreed with Lesrider - most of the price fluctuations described are due to overall changes in supply and demand and not a single trader's actions... Wraith became expensive because it was the most affected by the rush nerf, since it cannot be farmed in victory. Wings are cheap because they are no longer in demand; it used to be that you absolutely needed them to survive rushing, but now everyone needs dps so they use bows or blasters - and of course Keeper got much easier to farm.

I've done my own experiments with the market... (Yes, go ahead and hate me, see if I care. :p) My experience is that if people are selling things underpriced - in the sense that there is a lot of demand for an item and people are willing to pay a lot for it - then it's possible to constantly buy out low sellers and inflate the prices. But really, you are not so much inflating the prices as bringing them to where they should be to meet the demand. After a short while the other sellers will catch up and everyone will be listing the items at the new price. And you can't push the price up indefinitely to whatever number you choose - there's a balance somewhere determined by how many people are buying and selling the item. The best you can hope for is to guess what the right number is, then buy out the occasional underpriced seller who doesn't do his research, and sell for a more realistic price.

But if there not much demand for an item, and lots of supply, it will do you no good to try to buy up all the sellers and sell the item at a very high price. Because there will always be new sellers undercutting you, and meanwhile buyers will wait for the price to go down and won't buy, and you won't be able to resell items fast enough and at a high enough price to make up for all the people you had to buy out. I've tried it, and I've seen others buy me out to try it themselves... If the demand isn't there, it won't work.

I should say, the above applies less when new items come out, or when there's an update. Then nobody knows what prices should be and it takes a while for the market to figure out where it should stand - and meanwhile everybody wants to be the first to have the new items - so there's more of an opportunity for market manipulation. But it doesn't last long until things settle and prices are back to normal again.

[Fyrce]

I've done a little bit of experimenting myself and I must say that controlling the market is extremely difficult.

First, you cannot be on that many hours to be sure you control all supply and pricing.

2nd, you cannot control supply. There's a lot of stuff out there and once in a while, I've seen an item that seems rare suddenly gain a whole bunch of supply that someone wants to get rid of or when suppliers think the pricing is right. Morever, it's usually not a single item since players can use alternative items. You must control those as well. When a particular pink is too expensive, you will see corresponding pinks and purples, and sometimes greens, gain value as well, as some people figure out they do not need that super expensive item (yet).

Third, changes in the game will change your market. So when players are rebalanced or when the new Balefort stuff went in.

I think affecting the market is possible in limited circumstances, but you can also lose a lot of money trying :)

[Ellyidol]

True, I've noticed its extremely hard to try and be a capitalist in this market. The only opportunity I can see is being able to make money with a small margin. Buy out the gear, price them maybe 10k more.

Sure its still "inflating" or controlling the market, but its at a higher price that isn't really much of a difference (aside from cheap cheap items of course). Making 10k might not be much, but if you were able to buyout 10-20 items and reprice them for 10k more, thats 100-200k if all are sold quick. I just don't like the risk though, the game isn't stable enough yet to even try to think about doing this.

[TwinkTastical]

anything is possible. Runescape people controlled flax. Which is a massive market.


Flax dropped.. never went up lmao... Its so bottable.

[Winternight]

This is probably one of the most interesting threads I've read so far. Kudos. ;)


I've done a little bit of experimenting myself and I must say that controlling the market is extremely difficult.

First, you cannot be on that many hours to be sure you control all supply and pricing.

2nd, you cannot control supply. There's a lot of stuff out there and once in a while, I've seen an item that seems rare suddenly gain a whole bunch of supply that someone wants to get rid of or when suppliers think the pricing is right. Morever, it's usually not a single item since players can use alternative items. You must control those as well. When a particular pink is too expensive, you will see corresponding pinks and purples, and sometimes greens, gain value as well, as some people figure out they do not need that super expensive item (yet).

Third, changes in the game will change your market. So when players are rebalanced or when the new Balefort stuff went in.

I think affecting the market is possible in limited circumstances, but you can also lose a lot of money trying :)

It could certainly be possible with a large group of people (maybe 5-6) all working to increase the price of a single item. Once they have acquired nearly all of that item the price that it can be sold for is completely up to them. Essentially, you are creating a monopoly.

[Pharcyde]

Flax dropped.. never went up lmao... Its so bottable.

Lol when the Grand Exchange came out. I don't play anymore and havent a long time so i dont know how it is now.

[Lesrider]

The main thing controlling the market right now was the nerf. All bosses are now easy. Keeper items like the wing used to be 5-600k. Now that he's easy to kill, everyone has wings to sell, so it's down to 125k. The only item that isn't dropping quickly in price is the Wraith (and to some extent the other two armors as well).

I think the nerf killed the fun and the economy.

[Pharcyde]

The only item that isn't dropping quickly in price is the Wraith (and to some extent the other two armors as well).

I think the nerf killed the fun and the economy.

Not many people farm for Wraith. In Victory Lap everyone usually goes to keeper, and completely forgets about the wraith dropping boss.

Plus how many people do you see hosting captive audience? not many.

[Lesrider]

Not many people farm for Wraith. In Victory Lap everyone usually goes to keeper, and completely forgets about the wraith dropping boss.

Plus how many people do you see hosting captive audience? not many.

That's because Wraith doesnt drop in Victory Lap. And now more people are doing captive audience. I don't, but I know several people who do. But it takes longer to do than victory lap, so again, wraiths are the only thing that's not really dropping in price.

Keeper used to be challenging, so not everyone killed him on every run (present company included). But everything's so easy now, I kill all bosses except tpaxx each round. And everyone usually starts with keeper now, so void wings are raining from the sky.

[Riccits]

Plus how many people do you see hosting captive audience? not many.

i always see "many" ppl farming Captive... i do it too sometimes... u can do a round in like 5min and the wraith or OL rift is not soooo rare as ppl may think.. i saw drop a lot of them.. most ppl need it for themselfs so it never lands in shop... but last i saw 5 wraiths i shop, yesterday one for 650k, thats nor much more then the rift armor..