so do different arcanes have different drop rates in crates

[lethaljade]

Just wondering everyines opinion on this, for example more hammerjaws drop daily then shards, and hammerjaw being the most common arcane to drop from a crate.
Im wondering this as through personal experience, I have looted 11 arcanes across multiple different accounts, 6 of theese have been hammerjaw 4glacian 1 samael. Of course none of us will ever have any idea, but im curious to know if anyone else has experienced this.

[Zeus]

H2N has explained it like this:

If you open a crate and hit arcane, then you roll again to decide if it's an egg (higher chance) or a weapon (lower chance). If you land on egg, then you roll again to see which egg that you roll (equal chance). If you roll a weapon (lower chance) then you roll again to see what you roll (equal chance). Also, shard is in the weapon category of arcane rarity.

[lethaljade]

Ooo interesting, so all arcane eggs supposedly have the same probability? Mhm , thanks for the info zeus, that means 6 times ive been unlucky and looted the crappiest egg im not sure if I prefer that lol!

[Zeus]

Ooo interesting, so all arcane eggs supposedly have the same probability? Mhm , thanks for the info zeus, that means 6 times ive been unlucky and looted the crappiest egg im not sure if I prefer that lol!

You're the unluckiest of the luckiest!

[Anarchist]

Ehehehe unlucky ^


Come lemme teach what unlucky is Jade

[lethaljade]

Yes unlucky in my eyes, once I count up how many alternate accounts ive used to open crates and how much plat ive bought in total, doesnt make me feel so lucky, makes me feel like a numpty ;)
l
Ehehehe unlucky ^Come lemme teach what unlucky is Jade

[utkarsh saini]

ahh./... any hoW I CANT BUY PLATINUMS ..... so once i started getting platinum from frrreeee offers ..... i get 1050 plat from free offers . and decided to get opening locked from that ... i tried . around 70 locked from that .. and not a single pet ... legendary also i didnt et and no weapon moe than legendary .... just junk . so now i m frustated from that . and left opening them

[lethaljade]

ahh./... any hoW I CAyesterdayATINUMS ..... so once i started getting platinum from frrreeee offers ..... i get 1050 plat from free offers . and decided to get opening locked from that ... i tried . around 70 locked from that .. and not a single pet ... legendary also i didnt et and no weapon moe than legendary .... just junk . so now i m frustated from that . and left opening them


Yeah it can be like that i opened 1700 plat worth yesterday on my toon wnd another toon nothing atall all junk however esrliar in the day I opened 5 and got an hammerjaw and 2 weeks before that I opened 10 crates and got 2 hammerjaws, but if I work out crate cost and plat convert to gold, im not making any money whatsoever, im loosing it, best adivce to you is buy elixer kits and sell, crates r a rip off, I know this myself, but still choose to open them lol,

[Roberto077]

I opened 5 and got an hammerjaw and 2 weeks before that I opened 10 crates and got 2 hammerjaws

Please never call yourself unlucky ever again. Just no.

[Energizeric]

The big question I have, which has never been answered, is this:

STS says locked crates have a slightly higher chance of looting Arcane than does an Elite Golden Chest. However, there are 7 Arcane items which currently come in Crates. Elite Golden Chests only have the possibility to loot one single Arcane item each. So then which of the following is true:

1) The total chance of looting any of the 7 arcane items from a locked crate is slightly higher than looting the one single Arcane item that can be looted from an Elite Golden Chest.

or....

2) The chance of looting each of the 7 arcane items from a locked crate is slightly higher than looting that same item from an Elite Golden Chest.


If #2 is true, then the chance of looting any arcane item from a locked crate would actually be slightly more than 7 times as high as looting an arcane item from an Elite Golden Chest.

For some reason STS has not been willing to answer this question. But it is either #1 or #2. I suspect the answer is #2, and that is why so few Arcane items are ever looted from Elite Golden Chests.

[Serancha]

I've played a year and a half and not looted a single arcane item. Saying you are unlucky for looting 11, no matter which ones they are is absurd.

[basketholic209]

The big question I have, which has never been answered, is this:

STS says locked crates have a slightly higher chance of looting Arcane than does an Elite Golden Chest. However, there are 7 Arcane items which currently come in Crates. Elite Golden Chests only have the possibility to loot one single Arcane item each. So then which of the following is true:

1) The total chance of looting any of the 7 arcane items from a locked crate is slightly higher than looting the one single Arcane item that can be looted from an Elite Golden Chest.

or....

2) The chance of looting each of the 7 arcane items from a locked crate is slightly higher than looting that same item from an Elite Golden Chest.


If #2 is true, then the chance of looting any arcane item from a locked crate would actually be slightly more than 7 times as high as looting an arcane item from an Elite Golden Chest.

For some reason STS has not been willing to answer this question. But it is either #1 or #2. I suspect the answer is #2, and that is why so few Arcane items are ever looted from Elite Golden Chests.

I'm pretty sure it's no. 1.
The reason why so few arcane items are ever looted from elite golden chests are because so few are opened compared to locked crates (probably 100 : 1)

Sent from my SM-N900 using Tapatalk

[Crowsfoot]

The big question I have, which has never been answered, is this:

STS says locked crates have a slightly higher chance of looting Arcane than does an Elite Golden Chest. However, there are 7 Arcane items which currently come in Crates. Elite Golden Chests only have the possibility to loot one single Arcane item each. So then which of the following is true:

1) The total chance of looting any of the 7 arcane items from a locked crate is slightly higher than looting the one single Arcane item that can be looted from an Elite Golden Chest.

or....

2) The chance of looting each of the 7 arcane items from a locked crate is slightly higher than looting that same item from an Elite Golden Chest.


If #2 is true, then the chance of looting any arcane item from a locked crate would actually be slightly more than 7 times as high as looting an arcane item from an Elite Golden Chest.

For some reason STS has not been willing to answer this question. But it is either #1 or #2. I suspect the answer is #2, and that is why so few Arcane items are ever looted from Elite Golden Chests.
I don't know the hard numbers, but below is the basic equations, as I understand them. There are multiple equations since each chance of looting is an additional opened of the dice."

For Looting Arcane Items from Locked Crates:

For Eggs:

Ae = n • ((k • l) • e) / E

Ae: the chance of looting that arcane item.
n: the number of crates opened.
k: the constant for the odds of looting an arcane item.
l: the constant for odds of looting an arcane item from a locked crate.
e: the odds of of looting an egg once an arcane weapon has been decided as the awarded loot..
E: the number of eggs available to be looted.

For Weapons:

Aw = n • ((k • l) • w) / W

Aw: the chance of looting that arcane item.
n: the number of crates opened.
k: the constant for the odds of looting an arcane item.
l: the constant for odds of looting an arcane item from a locked crate.
w: the odds of looting an weapon once an arcane item has been decided as the awarded loot.
W: the number of weapons available to be looted.

For Elite Golden Chests:

Ac = n • (k • c) / w

Ac: the chance of looting that arcane item.
n: the number of chests opened.
k: the constant for the odds of looting an arcane item.
c: the constant for odds of looting an arcane item from an elite golden chest.
W: the number of weapons available to be looted.

---

A few assumptions can accurately be made such as the number of weapons/eggs available, that elite golden chest loot is relative to locked loot and thus locked have the coefficient of one, and the number of chests opened. The rest of the values are geusstimations.

For the below, I assumed the variable constants and odds. Arcane items are often described as a 1 in 1,000,000 chance (1 in 1,000,000 is 1 to 1,000,000 which can be wirtten as 1:1,000,000 and thus 1/1,000,000 which is 0.000 000 001) or 0.000 000 001 when written as a constant. Eggs have a higher drop rate, so I assumed a 70% (0.7) chance as opposed to 30% (0.3) for weapons when dealing with arcane loot in locked crates. I assumed the lower odds of elite golden chests dropping arcane items being 80% (0.8) of that from locked crates. That figure has no founding, it is a hunch.

Using these values I can derive the resulting odds of looting a specific item from each relative source. I assumed 100 of the relative source were opened in each equation to keep it constant and values easier to work out mathematically.

Eggs in Locked Crates:

Ae = n • ((k • l) • e) / E
Ae = 100 • ((0.000 000 001 • 1) • 0.7) / 4
Ae = 100 • 0.000 000 000 7 / 4
Ae = 0.000 000 07 / 4
Ae = 0.000 000 017 5
Ae ~ 0.000 001 75%

Weapons in Locked Crates:

Aw = n • ((k • l) • w) / W
Aw = 100 • ((0.000 000 001 • 1) • 0.3) / 3
Aw = 100 • 0.000 000 000 3 / 3
Aw = 0.000 000 03 / 3
Aw = 0.000 000 01
Aw ~ 0.000 001%

Arcane Weapon from an Elite Golden Chest

Ac = n • (k • c) / w
Ac = 100 • (0.000 000 001 • 0.8) / 1
Ac = 100 • 0.000 000 000 8 / 1
Ac = 0.000 000 08 / 1
Ac = 0.000 000 08
Ac ~ 0.000 008%

As you can see, these numbers say that the odds of looting a maul of olerus (just picking a random, yet specific, item). Is 8 times larger than that of a locked crate. I suspect that the odds are higher from an elite golden chest, but probably not this large of a gap. Additionally, because there are more eggs than weapons available to loot I suspect that the higher odds for eggs is a way of balancing the arcane items so that an equal number of every arcane item is looted. I infer this because there is a larger number of eggs than weapons available. This is possible with the correct egg to weapon ratio, if derived.

Feel free to plug in your own guesstimated figures to see what you believe the odds are.

[Energizeric]

If #1 in my post above is true, then the chance of looting a specific arcane item would be much much higher in an Elite Golden Chest than in a locked crate.

[Crowsfoot]

If #1 in my post above is true, then the chance of looting a specific arcane item would be much much higher in an Elite Golden Chest than in a locked crate.

I would assume this is right. The number of locks being opened is just so much higher that the weapons seem to only come from them.

I always open elite golden chests. Haven't seen an arcane yet but I'm hopeful. Unfortunately, I am stuck in the paradox of termination of past trials. For example: if you flip a perfectly balanced coin you have a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. If I flip that same coin 1,000 times and it is heads every single time, what are the odds that if I flip it again it'll be heads? 50/50. The previous trials have no impact on future ones. This applies to everything from coins to electronic slot machines (essentially locks).

Therefore, every time you open a locked you have the same odds.

[dantus]

Would be nice if sts would have a little transparency in this department.
My theory is each type of arcane item is set to be looted every so many crates that are popped. For example an hj will be looted on every thousand crates popped in al, and a shard every ten thousandth locked that is opened. So if you open one crate and hit happened to be the four millionth crate opened in the game you will loot a shard. On the same token you could be spamming 1000000 crates as fast as you can and someone else in game could be spamming simultaneously and keep hitting the 1000th locked and pop all the shards.

[Energizeric]

....This applies to everything from coins to electronic slot machines (essentially locks).

Therefore, every time you open a locked you have the same odds.

Not to argue with your general point, but slot machines are fixed and the sequence of rolls is planned out in advance. There is nothing random about them actually.

But yes, I do agree that locked crates are random, which would explain why the sudden popularity of them last summer caused chaos on the economy as STS did not anticipate so many being opened and so many junk pinks flowing into the market.

[Sheener]

H2N has explained it like this:

If you open a crate and hit arcane, then you roll again to decide if it's an egg (higher chance) or a weapon (lower chance). If you land on egg, then you roll again to see which egg that you roll (equal chance). If you roll a weapon (lower chance) then you roll again to see what you roll (equal chance). Also, shard is in the weapon category of arcane rarity.

Thanks

[Sceazikua]

About locked crates vs elite golden chest, these are my thoughts

1.People think arcanes only come from crate because
-so many crates are looted and opened every day, see how many crates are always listed on the cs but if you list one it sells in 10 seconds and thats how the crazy amount of crates is. They buy to resell? I dont think so because if we list the normal average price of it (10k atm) it will still sell fast. Now compare to elite golden chests, I always have to wait much longer to be able to sell 1 with average price, while low-ballers keep low-balling until it reaches a minimum price and thats when people start to buy to relist at average price, only a few open. a reason for that is crates are much easier to get. You run any maps, even the beginer maps, and loot a crate. About elite golden chests, you have to run through an elite map which takes much longer and hopefully pray you dont get a tickle stick of celerity.
-another reason is, crates seem much cheaper than elite golden chests, regardless the 15 plat. People seem to prefer spending 15 plat and 10k gold to spending 30k gold (or more, according to the kind of chest) just because "spending real life money is just easier". This is true, seriously.

2.Loots in elite golden chests are much more worthy if you looted one! Like H2N explained (said in energizeric's post), in crates when you roll into arcane weapon it can be HOOKS or SHARD. And in elite golden chest, if you are lucky enough to roll into arcane section you guarantee a SHARD loot (EDIT: this is a comparision between crate and elite golden dragonscale chest). Thats a guaranteed 80m loot, while in crate it could be a hooks or something else.

[Crowsfoot]

Not to argue with your general point, but slot machines are fixed and the sequence of rolls is planned out in advance. There is nothing random about them actually.

But yes, I do agree that locked crates are random, which would explain why the sudden popularity of them last summer caused chaos on the economy as STS did not anticipate so many being opened and so many junk pinks flowing into the market.

But since you don't know the sequence it is random.

There are several contradicting theories out there, most are very interesting. You should look into them if you have an interest in math.

[Serancha]

2.Loots in elite golden chests are much more worthy if you looted one! Like H2N explained (said in energizeric's post), in crates when you roll into arcane weapon it can be HOOKS or SHARD. And in elite golden chest, if you are lucky enough to roll into arcane section you guarantee a SHARD loot. Thats a guaranteed 80m loot, while in crate it could be a hooks or something else.


Yes, but do shards potentially drop from all elite golds, or just tinderin ones? I was under the impression it was the latter. If it wasn't, people would just be farming elite Jarl to death again.

Edit: found this from what I had copied of the official loot dist. post.




Elite Dragonscale Chests
Copper, Silver, and Gold all have chances to drop the Dragonscale Armor and Helm armor set pieces, with Gold giving you the best chance, and Copper with the least. All Elite Dragonscale Chests also have a chance to drop Wurmtongue’s Egg, and only the Elite Dragonscale Gold Chest has a chance to drop the Arcane Shard.

[Sceazikua]

I forgot to add elite golden "dragonscale" chest it guarantees shard loot if it rolls into arcane section, not all elite golden chests, we clearly know which ones these chests give (theres a guide by drgrimmy or so) ~.~ Sorry for misunderstanding. It was a comparision between crate and elite golden dragonscale chest, of course if we need other stuff like kershal scepter or maul or hook we can open other chests and also have a chance at eggs or other legendary/mythic gears.