Elite gold puzzle boxes

[gujral]

hey i was just curious that does elite golden puzzle boxes really drop kershal?
I mean i know they do but did anybody got from them and how many boxes did it take for it to drop and also plz tell abt other worthy loot from them :)

[Energizeric]

Since I kershal is worth around 30m, just based on the price of elite puzzleboxes, one would have to assume that it takes around 1000 of them to loot one. That is of course assuming that nothing else good comes in them, which may or may not be the case. Although I'm not sure what other decent loot does come in them. Shade armor? Not exactly worth much these days.

[gujral]

Well i was thinking to open up 100 boxes..so do i have a chance?

[Sloggar]

All luck based but in 100 the chances are lower than getting it in 100 crates

[Queenslayer]

U should sell ur puzzle to save more money to buy kershal or wait for new mytic gun imo

[gujral]

Just today my guild mate opened 1 elite golden warchest and he got arcane maul lol.. They just keep motivating me lol

[Sorcerie]

Yea, I hear these drop from elite golden's and I know someone who managed to get one from an elite golden puzzlebox - but the odds from an elite golden are supposed to be lower than that of a locked, which is already damn near impossibly low. So best advice is to sell em' and save, you'd get there much faster and won't feel like garbage after opening a ton of them for nothing and losing all your gold in the process.

[Kakashis]

I know a few players who looted Kershal, maul, and even shard from golden chests. If you're a gambler, then I always encourage players to do Goldens vs crates. Golden is 50-100k each, 0 money. Locked is 50k opportunity cost to open and $1 real money. If you have lots of money in real life, go for locked, if you have enough wealth in the game, then go for golden.

[Energizeric]

Well i was thinking to open up 100 boxes..so do i have a chance?

I'm guessing around a 10% chance if you open 100 boxes. So not very good, but yes it's possible.

[Crowsfoot]

Since I kershal is worth around 30m, just based on the price of elite puzzleboxes, one would have to assume that it takes around 1000 of them to loot one. That is of course assuming that nothing else good comes in them, which may or may not be the case. Although I'm not sure what other decent loot does come in them. Shade armor? Not exactly worth much these days.
Umm, ratios aren't based on market value. Plus, you have forgot to account for the termination of past trials.

I personally open elite golden chests. Bes I've ever gotten is mythic mage armor. No arcanes yet.

[Energizeric]

Umm, ratios aren't based on market value. Plus, you have forgot to account for the termination of past trials.

I personally open elite golden chests. Bes I've ever gotten is mythic mage armor. No arcanes yet.

The market price is determined by supply and demand, and usually that translates pretty accurately when taken in a large sample. Yes, in a real economy there are things like "perception" which are gained from advertising and marketing which can falsely boost the price of a product. But in AL there is no advertising of elite golden puzzleboxes, so the price is an accurate reflection of perception about what can be looted from them. So unless you think that people have a very wrong perception of what the possibilities are from them, then the price is probably somewhat accurate.

I would guess my estimate of 0.1% chance of looting a kershal is probably pretty close to the real number.

[Crowsfoot]

The market price is determined by supply and demand, and usually that translates pretty accurately when taken in a large sample. Yes, in a real economy there are things like "perception" which are gained from advertising and marketing which can falsely boost the price of a product. But in AL there is no advertising of elite golden puzzleboxes, so the price is an accurate reflection of perception about what can be looted from them. So unless you think that people have a very wrong perception of what the possibilities are from them, then the price is probably somewhat accurate.

I would guess my estimate of 0.1% chance of looting a kershal is probably pretty close to the real number.
There is no founding in market price effecting drop rate. STS doesn't change the drop rate just because the chest size more or less expensive.

I never argued that it is a 1:1000 chance (although I think the odds are lower). My only argument was against your logic of correlating the marketed price to drop rates.

[Energizeric]

I don't think drop rates affect prices of chests very much, unless there is a huge change in drop rates. The reason is that people do not hoard chests, and once they are opened they are eliminated from the market, meaning the market is always fresh out of these and needing more. The only time I can remember a big change in the price of elite chests based on supply/drop rate is when the shuyal gladiator arena was first introduced, since everyone was in there, the supply of elite chests went way up, and prices dropped a bit.

Otherwise the price is determined by what items you can loot and how much those items are worth on the current market. So when the kershal was worth 50m+, the mythic amulets were 1m+, the mythic ring was 3m+, and the legendary items you could loot in an elite puzzlebox also had decent value, then elite golden puzzleboxes would sell for 80-100k each. Now that the legendary items that can be looted in them are pretty worthless, the mythic ring is less than 2m, the mythic amulets are 200-400k, and the kershal is only 30m, the price of elite golden puzzleboxes has dropped to the 30-40k range.

The price fits the loot, not the supply. If the price was based on supply, then the price would actually have gone up since there are much fewer elite golden puzzleboxes being looted now than there were last season. Most elite farmers are in Tindirin now, not Shuyal.

Supply/drop rate mostly affects the prices of items that stay in form, like armors, helms, weapons, rings and amulets. The price of items that get "used up", like eggs (which get hatched), chests (which get opened) or gems (which get used for crafting) does not get affected very much by supply/drop rate. People just keep buying them and then the extra supply is simply removed from the market. It would take a huge change in drop rate and supply to affect the prices of these items.