Please Explain What Has Happened With Crates

[conradev]

Four-thousand...

4000 is the number of crates I have opened spanning the last week.

Saturday:
I opened 1500 crates over an 18 hr period. My loot rate for Arcane was about 1 in 100 crates.

I looted approximately 2 Fossils, 8 or 9 Shards, 3 Maridos, 1 Toor.

In Between these loots, there was a steady volume of jewels (mostly damaged and weak) at a rate I would say was about 1 in 10.

It was enough to land me about 15m (I buy all my crates from auc)

Sunday:
I opened about 800 crates over an 18 hr period. My loot rate was 0 Arcane. I wanted to chop it up to bad luck so I did.

Monday:
By this time I had reinvest all my gold made prior into full-blown crate farming. Spent another $90 to open more.

My loot rate was 0 Arcane in about 900 opens. Not only was my loot rate 0, but I also noticed that my jewel loot rate had gone from about 1 in 10 to now 1 in 400.

There is no coincidence, at this high of volume the loot table was changed (possibly fixed to how it was supposed to be originally) however no mention was made about it.

I have never been shy about spending my money on this game, nor have I been shy to let people know how much I have spent. About 500k plat all purchased.

While I appreciate the addition of crate tokens, I don't appreciate my efforts and spending to be mislead.

With everything sketchy that has gone on in the past, I really need this to be addressed before I put another dime in.

500 dollars and I am back to where I started. Now there is something not ethical about that. There is no other game to my telling like that.

If there was a malfunction I want my plat credited back even though the loss has already been made as I put all the gold back into buying more crates.

If you're not willing to put a price on your best in game gear and pets in a dollar amount, if you are leaving it up to gambling you have to show numbers...odds. And those odds cannot change.

$500 and I should be able to directly buy something...but as of now I have nothing.

[Niixed]

Thanks for posting some hard data, con. If drop rates have indeed been nerfed, I'd hope that STS would be forthcoming about what happened. If it was an intentional arcane/mythic windfall that has now ceased, then they should communicate that to players, both in game and on the forums.

[G-M]

We haven't made any changes to the Ren'gol crates since 6/30 when we fixed a bug related to crate tokens. Also we don't update the game on the weekends.

[FluffNStuff]

Were you always opening the same crates? (Regular,Big, Bigger, Goblin, etc)

[Ssneakykills]

I would of stopped opening crates after the first bunch you opened you could of easily become maxed out with selling and using some of that with a lot of gold to spare.

On topic I'd like to think the drop rate hasn't changed but from those statistics however reliable they are I can see that something has changed along the lines as I've heard of others that have also have bad luck recently

[Niixed]

We haven't made any changes to the Ren'gol crates since 6/30 when we fixed a bug related to crate tokens. Also we don't update the game on the weekends.

Hmm, so if one assumes both cases are true.... that's a mystery that begs to be solved.

Is there anything that might explain the phenomenon that conradev is describing? If what con described is accurate, the contrast between one time period and another in terms of perceived loot success is extremely sharp. I'd bet this is the source of many players' frustration - to con and other players in his situation, it looks like the spigot was turned off even if you hadn't made any changes. Idk it might be worth checking into and finding out why it seems to happen this way. If there's a good explanation to be had, it would alleviate a lot of the negative emotions many players feel.

[VenomsChaos]

You are in the MOST UNLUCKLY CLUB.

But allways saying AL is a lucky base game. if you are a unluckly plat player, i think you should just but kits - ankh - + + +.

Also i think lucky rolls about date-timing in AL to. So if i would open 10000 lock, probably i ll open 200-300 in eachday. And when i catch the lucky time i can spamm all 10000 lock.

[Otahaanak]

Still trying to wrap my head around 5000 locked.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bidiel]

wuuooo you said "About 500k plat all purchased.

While I appreciate the addition of crate tokens, I don't appreciate my efforts and spending to be mislead."

500,000 plat??? that is $90 = 1700 plat then 500k plat= $26,460

naaa i dont believe that :v

[conradev]

We haven't made any changes to the Ren'gol crates since 6/30 when we fixed a bug related to crate tokens. Also we don't update the game on the weekends.

Thank you.
Can you confirm that new mythic items are only available in Massive Crates? It seems this way, sorry if it was already announced this way but I haven't seen anything on it.

[Maalice]

I have heard that people are having bad luck as well. I dunno what but it seems.something has changed? Also are arcane weapons still in the loot table? You would think that tons of mauls and kershals would be dropping as wel, not just shard and fossil. This could be why so many shards and fossil because weapons are out of the loot table, and there isnt anything other than shards and fossil too loot.

[conradev]

We haven't made any changes to the Ren'gol crates since 6/30 when we fixed a bug related to crate tokens. Also we don't update the game on the weekends.

Is there a possibility that only a certain number of Arcane items can be looted in a certain time period before the loot table is regenerated? I have suspected this is how it works in the past when this has happened.

For example, maybe I started crating at a bad time when there were less Arcane items available to loot, so I got very few decent items. But the next day when the loot table has refreshed, maybe I loot 2 Arcanes right away because there are more available to be looted?

[G-M]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

135744

[conradev]

Were you always opening the same crates? (Regular,Big, Bigger, Goblin, etc)

I only opened regular for the first 1k because it's what I could afford. Then I would buy a few massives every once in a while to mix in. The past 48 hours I have seen no Arcane, and no mythic from Massives, I suspect I've opened about 100 massives.

[Ssneakykills]

Thank you.
Can you confirm that new mythic items are only available in Massive Crates? It seems this way, sorry if it was already announced this way but I haven't seen anything on it.

They are completely farmable and craftable so you will probably farm the mythics in new elites and craft from components in Orc chests maybe

Edit - I believe they even confirmed they won't come from locked crates

[conradev]

wuuooo you said "About 500k plat all purchased.

While I appreciate the addition of crate tokens, I don't appreciate my efforts and spending to be mislead."

500,000 plat??? that is $90 = 1700 plat then 500k plat= $26,460

naaa i dont believe that :v

I have done around 500k plat across all accounts and all purchased since week 1 of the game...95% has gone to crating.

[Maalice]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

135744

So did u notice a huge increase in drops and then the decline?

[FluffNStuff]

I only opened regular for the first 1k because it's what I could afford. Then I would buy a few massives every once in a while to mix in. The past 48 hours I have seen no Arcane, and no mythic from Massives, I suspect I've opened about 100 massives.

Would you be able to re-do your stats but group according to size/day?

[Akatsuuki]

Four-thousand...

4000 is the number of crates I have opened spanning the last week.

Saturday:
I opened 1500 crates over an 18 hr period. My loot rate for Arcane was about 1 in 100 crates.

I looted approximately 2 Fossils, 8 or 9 Shards, 3 Maridos, 1 Toor.

In Between these loots, there was a steady volume of jewels (mostly damaged and weak) at a rate I would say was about 1 in 10.

It was enough to land me about 15m (I buy all my crates from auc)

Sunday:
I opened about 800 crates over an 18 hr period. My loot rate was 0 Arcane. I wanted to chop it up to bad luck so I did.

Monday:
By this time I had reinvest all my gold made prior into full-blown crate farming. Spent another $90 to open more.

My loot rate was 0 Arcane in about 900 opens. Not only was my loot rate 0, but I also noticed that my jewel loot rate had gone from about 1 in 10 to now 1 in 400.

There is no coincidence, at this high of volume the loot table was changed (possibly fixed to how it was supposed to be originally) however no mention was made about it.

I have never been shy about spending my money on this game, nor have I been shy to let people know how much I have spent. About 500k plat all purchased.

While I appreciate the addition of crate tokens, I don't appreciate my efforts and spending to be mislead.

With everything sketchy that has gone on in the past, I really need this to be addressed before I put another dime in.

500 dollars and I am back to where I started. Now there is something not ethical about that. There is no other game to my telling like that.

If there was a malfunction I want my plat credited back even though the loss has already been made as I put all the gold back into buying more crates.

If you're not willing to put a price on your best in game gear and pets in a dollar amount, if you are leaving it up to gambling you have to show numbers...odds. And those odds cannot change.

$500 and I should be able to directly buy something...but as of now I have nothing.


Opening crates daily and continuesly but for the last 3 days now only got 1 shard 1 toor out of about 600-700 crates I think drop rate went normal as it should be .. Im a bit happy tho but not about the prices of arcades still going down (maybe because of the lack in demand or a lot of players already have arcane ring eggs and fossils(nekro) anyway I wanted to ask this question .. How come this new crates has better odds like 100x than the older crates? I spend before 1 account with 40k plats yet not a single arcane compare to this new crates is this just a bug? Or definitely a fix update? Fossils are like once in a blue moon to obtain before even using govblin crates ?? Just wanna clarify things .. I'd love to hear a good response from a admin

[Edward Coug]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

135744

Which seems to suggest that you also control how many arcanes come into the game?

[Jazzi]

Hm,

honestly I don't see how this is possible. I see how 1 person could be a statistical marginal case and get super bad luck, but in this thread there are several who claim the same and others who say they "heard" the same.
Even if all this were true and all those people would be getting terrible loot the last 3 days, apparently many others were looting many, because prices now are lower than ever.

[Akatsuuki]

Which seems to suggest that you also control how many arcanes come into the game?

So true lol btw I just pop-up about 200 ren crates after posting my reply about 30-45mins ago, and look what I got , 3 mythic pendants that cost 19999 in auc and 1 Super mythic ring(out dated eversince decades ago )which roughly cost about 80k more or less .. Way back 5 days ago every about 50-75 crates that I open I get an arcane item ... Well still I wonder what happened STS??

[Jazzi]

So true lol btw I just pop-up about 200 ren crates after posting my reply about 30-45mins ago, and look what I got , 3 mythic pendants that cost 19999 in auc and 1 Super mythic ring(out dated eversince decades ago )which roughly cost about 80k more or less .. Way back 5 days ago every about 50-75 crates that I open I get an arcane item ... Well still I wonder what happened STS??

Wait what, the lvl 30/31 mythic pendants and blood rubies are still in the loot table?!? I saw the pendants in the vendor and was 100% sure that this was a bug. I mean who would use that when there is an abundance of cheap and much better choices

[Pivot]

zzz you don't need update to have it change like when the event cooldowns and when garetta was rebuilt just pointing out the facts

[PhoenixPrime]

Wait doesn't 4,000 crates mean 4,000 crate tokens?
After the first 750 or 1000, you could just go 'buy' an arcane from the token vendor.

On a side note, can we replace the lower level mythic items with something more useful? The Lv 30ish items have kind of run their course right now, shouldn't really be in the loot table for the Ren'Gol crates...

[Anyona]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

135744
This statement confirms that you control and alter the drop rates in lockeds.

[Magegrimm]

This statement confirms that you control and alter the drop rates in lockeds.
Maybe too much irony and we can't detect

Enviado do meu SM-G350 através de Tapatalk

[conradev]

Hm,

honestly I don't see how this is possible. I see how 1 person could be a statistical marginal case and get super bad luck, but in this thread there are several who claim the same and others who say they "heard" the same.
Even if all this were true and all those people would be getting terrible loot the last 3 days, apparently many others were looting many, because prices now are lower than ever.

This is not complete logic, the prices continue to go down for many reasons, the big two you overlooked though are hoarding from prior to the loot rate decrease as well as the buying and reselling from auction with gold.

[conradev]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

135744

So does it follow that when there are too high a number looted you reduce the quanitity of Arcanes in the Ren'gol Crate loot table?

If yes, I'm sure you understand the ethical implications therein.

Can JustG touch on this subject?

I realize gaming laws vary State to State and are complex; and I'm not sure if spending virtual currency on alleged "chance" prizes would technically be considered gambling or not...but I know that if it is, there has to be expessed and unchanging odds surrounding it, therefore making changes without notification to the customer a crime?...or at least ethically irresponsible.

Please disregard if the quoted post was an arbitrary statement.

[Jazzi]

This is not complete logic, the prices continue to go down for many reasons, the big two you overlooked though are hoarding from prior to the loot rate decrease as well as the buying and reselling from auction with gold.

I have thought about those two and some others as well, like market saturation or inability to use shard/fossil due to lack of gold to buy vials/bar/ and unfinished nekro quest. Those might all be relevant and without seeing game encompassing data they are all just conjecture. But hoarding? With steady price decrease over the last 2 weeks, why would anyone hoard? I really don't get it. I mean chances are u would make loss.

[Upperbound]

Guys. Just imagine how much money u spend on this "game" and what could u get for it (in terms of gaming). You could buy a ps4 console with all the best exclusives + big TV and have so much fun with high quality games instead of spending money in this buggy casino where noone actually knows the chances and droptables. I regret every cent spent on this "game".

Personally, i consider the hidden chances of dropping items for real money as scamming. Even casino and lottery have known and fixed chances.

[Devoleb]

Hahaha i really love seeing all the people here that reply to the post with the nekro birth picture and think its serious whahahaha this is pure sarcastic of him, i cant believe how ppl are taking this for serious??? I laughed so hard when i saw that picture and read the text... Common guys you REALLY dont get his irony? o.O maybe thats even more funny than his post hahaha

[conradev]

Hahaha i really love seeing all the people here that reply to the post with the nekro birth picture and think its serious whahahaha this is pure sarcastic of him, i cant believe how ppl are taking this for serious??? I laughed so hard when i saw that picture and read the text... Common guys you REALLY dont get his irony? o.O maybe thats even more funny than his post hahaha

Forgive my sense of "humour", the subject matter is serious, therefore we are taking replies from STS seriously.

[Caabatric]

Hahaha i really love seeing all the people here that reply to the post with the nekro birth picture and think its serious whahahaha this is pure sarcastic of him, i cant believe how ppl are taking this for serious??? I laughed so hard when i saw that picture and read the text... Common guys you REALLY dont get his irony? o.O maybe thats even more funny than his post hahaha

Blow over 100 dollars on a game and get nothing....
I remember whenever I see these type of threads I usually think "you know they say chance drop rate......"
Then i think about the amount of games that I spent money on just to see it goes free the next week and notice that I am pretty upset...

Think about blowing up all your money that you have right now on a broken ps3. you would be upset right.... this is similar to what the OP is feeling....
He has a right to demand seriousness from sts responses rather than have them joke at him for spending money on their game.....

[Bidiel]

"a crime?" come on, no one put a gun to his head and forced to you to buy and spend in this game, and GM was only sarcastic

[BottleNexz]

So does it follow that when there are too high a number looted you reduce the quanitity of Arcanes in the Ren'gol Crate loot table?

If yes, I'm sure you understand the ethical implications therein.

Can JustG touch on this subject?

I realize gaming laws vary State to State and are complex; and I'm not sure if spending virtual currency on alleged "chance" prizes would technically be considered gambling or not...but I know that if it is, there has to be expessed and unchanging odds surrounding it, therefore making changes without notification to the customer a crime?...or at least ethically irresponsible.

Please disregard if the quoted post was an arbitrary statement.
nailed it....

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

[carmine_blade]

Is this a merch thread conrad, like your last one about the endless loop ring? Hmm.

[BottleNexz]

no, I think it's more to do with the underhand tactics of StS of moving the goal posts on a whim.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

[Dex Scene]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

135744
Hello Gm, Remi and seo!! [emoji23]

[scarysmerf]

We haven't made any changes to the Ren'gol crates since 6/30 when we fixed a bug related to crate tokens. Also we don't update the game on the weekends.

Good thing I stoped after I looted 3 arcane shards,toor,maridos and a fossil.lady luck was verry kind to me :)

[DuhSensasian]

ill back conrad up on this. i was one who spent 20k plats in the first week of the expansion and made around 80m. looting 3 gold toor and countless arcane shards fossil, about 10 maridos and toor. after my success i told conrad it was time for him to be popping crates. and he had great success as well. but about a week later, i invested 15m back into massive and completely lost. conrad then pm me saying that now is not a good time to be popping crates. i totally agree that the drop rate is mega nerfed, it feel like arcane is back where it should be though, with the title of actual "arcane"

[Niixed]

ill back conrad up on this. i was one who spent 20k plats in the first week of the expansion and made around 80m. looting 3 gold toor and countless arcane shards fossil, about 10 maridos and toor. after my success i told conrad it was time for him to be popping crates. and he had great success as well. but about a week later, i invested 15m back into massive and completely lost. conrad then pm me saying that now is not a good time to be popping crates. i totally agree that the drop rate is mega nerfed, it feel like arcane is back where it should be though, with the title of actual "arcane"


Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.



Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.


Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?

[Edward Coug]

Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.



Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.


Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?

Yes, if the system limits how many items of a certain type can drop from locks during a given period of time. This would explain why the arcane drops were so high at first, but then tailed off as more arcanes were obtained.

[FluffNStuff]

Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.



Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.


Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

With the sheer numbers of players opening the new locks, some of them will experience odds crushing luck. Those that experienced it are now returning to normal luck. Others that experienced soul destroying luck will either have their luck returned to normal, or more likely stop opening out of sadness. Either way, the ones we are hearing from are those that had luck far above the mean, but just because they are the majority of the ones we are hearing from does not in any way make them an actual majority of openers.

[Kakashis]

Yeah in the first week, many of my friends looted red items. As of lately and today, success rate is far from fruitful. Seems like something perhaps a bug has occurred.

[Endeavorian]

i only opened one massive, got a gold toor a shard sooo... that was cool

[Bless]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

135744

In my 5 years of STG games/forums, that is for me the funniest thing a dev has ever said LOL

[conradev]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

With the sheer numbers of players opening the new locks, some of them will experience odds crushing luck. Those that experienced it are now returning to normal luck. Others that experienced soul destroying luck will either have their luck returned to normal, or more likely stop opening out of sadness. Either way, the ones we are hearing from are those that had luck far above the mean, but just because they are the majority of the ones we are hearing from does not in any way make them an actual majority of openers.

This is a good theory, but does not apply to this case, as I have not encountered a single mass crate opener who did not experience better odds and I think the market proved this...the market tanked for shards and fossils, that hasnt happened before, therefore this can be thrown out.

[Arpluvial]

Hey guys,

We realize that there are a lot of questions regarding crates. The team is always listening, but please make sure to keep posts friendly and constructive.

[conradev]

...I'm too real for gaming

[e'dria♡]

wow i cant believe you literally opened that kind of amount of locks and got nothing on 800 or so. LOL

Personally, ive opened a numerous of massives and got 5 belts, shard, fossils and got big amount of plats back.
I even looted them on 2-3 crates, i don think the odds are bad at all, its enough.