Bazinga!
12-10-2015, 11:02 AM
I wanted to decide on the best elixir strategy to get the best results and searched for a guide on re-roll, and I found Physiologic's guide from the 56 cap. Some of you will say that he has already made a guide like this but I'm sorry to say that his guide is incorrect. He was perfect on all counts with his calculations, algorithms etc., except he missed one small point which largely affects the outcome.
(If you are not concerned about Physiologic's guide then skip to the REROLL section.)
Here is a link to the guide he made:
http://www.spacetimestudios.com/showthread.php?30059-How-Drop-Rates-Work-(Simplified)-and-the-Factor-of-Luck-Elixirs
And now I will explain what he did and how it really works. Read the third section of his guide, where all the calculations are. He multiplied the drop rate with the reroll chance and then multiplied the rest of the percentage;
e.g.-- (1/4) -> Reroll x (1/100) -> Chance of getting a pink x (99/100) -> Chance of getting an item which is not pink.
But this does not make sense with accordance to the definition of re-roll. Re-roll means getting an item one class higher than the earlier one. So if you are getting a green, a reroll will help you get a purple. If you are getting a purple, a reroll will help you get a pink. What Physiologic did as far as my understanding is concerned is that he multiplied the reroll with the chance of getting any other colour, and then multiplied it with the chance of getting a pink, which shouldn't be in the equation at all. Not every colour rerolls into a pink, only purple does, so (99/100) cannot be taken into account.
This is probably becoming pretty complex and overwhelming for some of you, so let me explain how it should actually be.
REROLL------->
First we have to take the drop rates for each colour item WITHOUT an elixir. Only the devs know the exact drop rate, but in the upcoming table, I have set up some arbitrary and sensible drop rates for each colour.
144378
The first box show the base drop rates without any elixir. In the second table, I have shown the chance of getting an item with a 100% reroll elixir. Pink always rerolls into elite. Purple always rerolls into pink and so on. So the 5% pink always becomes elite, giving a 6% chance totally to get an elite (because there is still 1% chance to get an elite without reroll and it clearly states in the elixir description that it will reroll IF POSSIBLE).
The third box shows the chance of getting each item colour with a 30% reroll elixir, which is your 1.25, 1.5 and 3x combo daily blessing elixir with which most people farm. You can see that your chance of getting an elite increases from 1% to a mere 2.5%, which kind of sucks. It makes way less difference compared to the 100% reroll.
The fourth box shows 70% reroll chance, and is a pretty good contender, giving 4.5% chance of getting an elite. You can get 70% reroll by using daily 3x, the 2x combo from the store (8 Platinum) and a big lucky hat. For an hour, it will cost you 16 platinum and it will give you 4.5% chance of getting an elite, whereas the 100% reroll will cost you 40 platinum for 6% chance to get elites. Comparing the ratios, the 70% reroll is the most cost effective method of farming, but of course this doesnt apply to all dungeons. The base values I took are completely random.
Now lets take appropriate base drop rates for the new campaign THE OVERLORD RETURNS. I haven't tested but this is an educated guess of the drop rates.
Note: Different elites have different drop rates, but I'm taking the average drop rates for elites as 0.1%, which means in a thousand runs with no elixir, there will be one such drop.
144379
Legendaries are preeeeetty common in the new campaign so I have taken the drop rate as 7%. Now, we can see that you can now get a whopping 7.1% elite drop rate with a 100% reroll and a 5% drop rate with the 70% reroll chance elixir.
Why Should You Take a 100% Reroll?
As I said lots of pinks drop here and if you could turn every single one of them into an elite, then you might get lucky and hit the jackpot (MAGOR, WARAT and ARZAC).
In short I'm here to say that elixirs do make a difference unlike the conclusion in Physiologic's guide which made it seem like they are of no use. I hope this guide helps you and correct me in any place you think I'm wrong.
(If you are not concerned about Physiologic's guide then skip to the REROLL section.)
Here is a link to the guide he made:
http://www.spacetimestudios.com/showthread.php?30059-How-Drop-Rates-Work-(Simplified)-and-the-Factor-of-Luck-Elixirs
And now I will explain what he did and how it really works. Read the third section of his guide, where all the calculations are. He multiplied the drop rate with the reroll chance and then multiplied the rest of the percentage;
e.g.-- (1/4) -> Reroll x (1/100) -> Chance of getting a pink x (99/100) -> Chance of getting an item which is not pink.
But this does not make sense with accordance to the definition of re-roll. Re-roll means getting an item one class higher than the earlier one. So if you are getting a green, a reroll will help you get a purple. If you are getting a purple, a reroll will help you get a pink. What Physiologic did as far as my understanding is concerned is that he multiplied the reroll with the chance of getting any other colour, and then multiplied it with the chance of getting a pink, which shouldn't be in the equation at all. Not every colour rerolls into a pink, only purple does, so (99/100) cannot be taken into account.
This is probably becoming pretty complex and overwhelming for some of you, so let me explain how it should actually be.
REROLL------->
First we have to take the drop rates for each colour item WITHOUT an elixir. Only the devs know the exact drop rate, but in the upcoming table, I have set up some arbitrary and sensible drop rates for each colour.
144378
The first box show the base drop rates without any elixir. In the second table, I have shown the chance of getting an item with a 100% reroll elixir. Pink always rerolls into elite. Purple always rerolls into pink and so on. So the 5% pink always becomes elite, giving a 6% chance totally to get an elite (because there is still 1% chance to get an elite without reroll and it clearly states in the elixir description that it will reroll IF POSSIBLE).
The third box shows the chance of getting each item colour with a 30% reroll elixir, which is your 1.25, 1.5 and 3x combo daily blessing elixir with which most people farm. You can see that your chance of getting an elite increases from 1% to a mere 2.5%, which kind of sucks. It makes way less difference compared to the 100% reroll.
The fourth box shows 70% reroll chance, and is a pretty good contender, giving 4.5% chance of getting an elite. You can get 70% reroll by using daily 3x, the 2x combo from the store (8 Platinum) and a big lucky hat. For an hour, it will cost you 16 platinum and it will give you 4.5% chance of getting an elite, whereas the 100% reroll will cost you 40 platinum for 6% chance to get elites. Comparing the ratios, the 70% reroll is the most cost effective method of farming, but of course this doesnt apply to all dungeons. The base values I took are completely random.
Now lets take appropriate base drop rates for the new campaign THE OVERLORD RETURNS. I haven't tested but this is an educated guess of the drop rates.
Note: Different elites have different drop rates, but I'm taking the average drop rates for elites as 0.1%, which means in a thousand runs with no elixir, there will be one such drop.
144379
Legendaries are preeeeetty common in the new campaign so I have taken the drop rate as 7%. Now, we can see that you can now get a whopping 7.1% elite drop rate with a 100% reroll and a 5% drop rate with the 70% reroll chance elixir.
Why Should You Take a 100% Reroll?
As I said lots of pinks drop here and if you could turn every single one of them into an elite, then you might get lucky and hit the jackpot (MAGOR, WARAT and ARZAC).
In short I'm here to say that elixirs do make a difference unlike the conclusion in Physiologic's guide which made it seem like they are of no use. I hope this guide helps you and correct me in any place you think I'm wrong.