What do you think?

[extrapayah]

if someone told you that the chance of looting an item is 0.0002% with cool expression :D

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item, and then, knowing that 1 run is approximately 20 minutes, it's a whooping 10 million minutes needed!, converted into hours, it's around 150,000 hours, 6000 days, 20 years, of 24/7 playing times...

P.S.: thank you for the transparency, we definitely need this more

[stricker20000]

if someone told you that the chance of looting an item is 0.0002% with cool expression :D

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item, and then, knowing that 1 run is approximately 20 minutes, it's a whooping 10 million minutes needed!, converted into hours, it's around 150,000 hours, 6000 days, 20 years, of 24/7 playing times...

P.S.: thank you for the transparency, we definitely need this more

Wait what? Did STS tell that as loot chance?

Ikr, farming for set *** is non sense because it's impossible to loot it. You can farm for hundreds of hours and then just somebody who did his first run will loot it:fatigue:

[Kharjojo]

This remind me the first appearance of the planar pendant recipe, where sys-luck was the only requisite.
I think it's just the same here, with the difference that in between you could've gained something worth opening the arena chests.
Cannot say the same for the normal underhul tokens and i feel daily the pain of a lot of farmers, including me.. it's kinda disheartening.

[Suentous PO]

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item

I gravitate towards the insane generally and this statement is deliciously bonkers.
There is no reason to assume that in 500,000 runs you will expect to loot anything with a percentage of .0002

Even the "law" of averages can be spanked by the reality of "random".

[extrapayah]

yup, someone kind enough to count the rate, here is the ss:

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/13498032_10153984727733241_8510053636762732121_o.j pg

really appreciate the transparency, drop rate should be clear enough for player to make judgement

[Faliziaga]

got me a chocolate pudding after reading this

[stricker20000]

Sts doesn't tell the rates because nobody would farm anymore :p

[Suentous PO]

more or less you will hit 10 bc its 1/10 chance

Closer to reality than his certainty that X amount of times will certainly come up.
If I say roll a one on a 6 sided die , you would be mislead to assume it will certainly take 6 rolls.
It's easy to fall for the gamblers fallacy.

[Kakashis]

Yes, the odds of getting it are so slim, but people are still looting. It really is like winning the lottery. During the course of a day and the countless south gate runs, you rarely see mold drops and that's with many people. Up if to elite and runs that require Hunter lix, it's amazing that we already see some recipies for weapons!

[Trenton]

it does take 6 time
bigger your sample size closer to reality

rooll the dice 600 times you will get 100 times 6 on that maybe 101 maybe 99 but top of the bell curve is on 100
Are you kidding me? Let's make it even bigger. Heads and tails. 50% chance for tails, but there is a possibility that you CAN go 20 times without landing a single tails. There's no definite chance, 100 rolls does not mean 49-51 heads and 49-51 tails.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[Trenton]

20 times in a row heads means 1/2^20 =1/1048576, so with that logic you can win lottery every year until you die or hit by lightning 30 times etc

It exacly means 49 51 head tails exacly*

you can, doesnt allways mean you will, most likely you wont, get it?
I suggest you to have some info about probability first before jumping in
Logic does not come from an equation. That's only for people with a lack of experience and laziness to console themselves. Being a math geek does not solve real probability, experience does.

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[Fyrce]

This is obviously a lie. What moron has done 500k runs? Thats right, therefore lie.

[Suentous PO]

it does take 6 time
bigger your sample size closer to reality

rooll the dice 600 times you will get 100 times 6 on that maybe 101 maybe 99 but top of the bell curve is on 100

By that logic your saying that if I flip a coin twice it will be heads once and you will not roll two tails even once.
What I objected to is that he seemed to say he could WITHOUT A DOUBT roll a 1 on a six sided die AS LONG AS HE ROLLED SIX TIMES.
If you roll 200 tails in a row (il)logic implies the odds of you rolling another tails is low, when it is still 50%


well it solves anything you can imagine, thats why and how you live in todays modern world. ah btw if you act without calculating the outcome, you most likely lose in many situation.

love with your heart use your brain for anything else

Math implies our "reality" when it isn't, such as the fact that the mathematics of physics shows there is no reason why time doesn't go both forward and backwards.


Ps I just rolled 100 coins and got 58 heads and 42 tails, I must be magic that it wasn't the probible average of 50 50 or even 49 51
Lel

[stricker20000]

There are no ways to find out the rates, mainly due to the reroll factor.

Without rerolling they could, but honestly who runs without lepre or elixir there?

Re-roll is so useless there, you hardly need to take it into concern.

[stricker20000]

This is obviously a lie. What moron has done 500k runs? Thats right, therefore lie.

I guess you got this wrong.

[Melthyz]

Re-roll is so useless there, you hardly need to take it into concern.

I agree with you, luck elixir is a total waste at underhul. I'm not sure if a lep makes a difference. I just put it on cuz it seems like the right thing to do.

[stricker20000]

By that logic your saying that if I flip a coin twice it will be heads once and you will not roll two tails even once.
What I objected to is that he seemed to say he could WITHOUT A DOUBT roll a 1 on a six sided die AS LONG AS HE ROLLED SIX TIMES.
If you roll 200 tails in a row (il)logic implies the odds of you rolling another tails is low, when it is still 50%



Math implies our "reality" when it isn't, such as the fact that the mathematics of physics shows there is no reason why time doesn't go both forward and backwards.


Ps I just rolled 100 coins and got 58 heads and 42 tails, I must be magic that it wasn't the probible average of 50 50 or even 49 51
Lel

The less times you flip the coin the more likely it won't be 50:50 but the more often you try the closer the chances you observe are to 50:50. The lower the number of tries the greater the divergence will be.

[stricker20000]

I agree with you, luck elixir is a total waste at underhul. I'm not sure if a lep makes a difference. I just put it on cuz it seems like the right thing to do.

Yea ikr, the chances to get a legendary without reroll is very low anyways. And once you are lucky and loot a legendary you need more luck to reroll and then you get same chance on set item as if you just killed boss without anything.

The utility converges to zero. The chances to loot set item without luck are way higher than looting it via re-roll. Ofc it adds a bit of a chance but as I said its like nothing.

[Suentous PO]

it does take 6 time
bigger your sample size closer to reality

rooll the dice 600 times you will get 100 times 6 on that maybe 101 maybe 99 but top of the bell curve is on 100


well it solves anything you can imagine, thats why and how you live in todays modern world. ah btw if you act without calculating the outcome, you most likely lose in many situation.

love with your heart use your brain for anything else


The less times you flip the coin the more likely it won't be 50:50 but the more often you try the closer the chances you observe are to 50:50. The lower the number of tries the greater the divergence will be.

I can see here that we are arguing the difference between probability and possibility, I am saying it is entirely possible to not roll what he thinks is certain.
Research the gamblers fallacy

[stricker20000]

I can see here that we are arguing the difference between probability and possibility, I am saying it is entirely possible to not roll what he thinks is certain.
Research the gamblers fallacy

Yes of course it is possible to flip the coin 20 times and get 20 tails but irelia calculated the probability for that case. Probability never excludes possibility. The probability to win the lottery is very low but it still is possible to win the lottery. What probability tells you is basically that you can play the lottery your whole life long but you most likely will never hit the jackpot. Actually another word for possibility is luck in this case :p

Gamblers fallacy basically tells you: If you toss a coin the probability for tossing head or coin is always 50% and does not scale by the number of tosses you have already done. Gamblers fallacy does not influence Probability; If you toss it 10 times you will hardly get 50:50 (heads/tails). If you toss the coin 1000 times you will be pretty close to 50:50, if you toss it 100000 times you will be closer to 50:50, if you toss it 100000000 times you will be even closer to 50:50 (overall).
Gamblers fallacy means: If you tossed the coin 10 times and you were so lucky that you tossed 10x head in a row (the probability for that is (1/2)^10= 1/1024 (about 0,1%)) you will still have 50% chance to toss head on your next toss and not (1/2)^11.

"Randomness has no memories" thats what Gamblers fallacy says.

[Ardbeg]

As i stated before, the new sets are obviously not meant to be looted by one person. Sts wants them to drop, but not on a daily basis. And i think it's ok, as long as you can make progress hunting them. Try hunting the banished amulet and you see how bad it gets, lol.

[Jazzi]

Very interesting. It sounds about right though. The drop rates in this game are super low, unless you spend a ton of money on crates. Well it is what it is.

[Ardbeg]

Very interesting. It sounds about right though. The drop rates in this game are super low, unless you spend a ton of money on crates. Well it is what it is.

The Drop rates vary a lot. There are still some low hanging fruits with good revenue (drops and ingredients). Just don't expect Antignome and Banished to fall into this category. Some more middle tier items could help though.

[Suentous PO]

Lol I'll be more simple

He thought there was a certain number of chances that would *guarantee*. he hit one number.

Certainty and probability do not mix

[Eagle Eye229]

If you farm without lix/lep,your foolish.

I looted fossil on my second Ren I opened,never since.

It doesn't matter how many runs you do.if an item has 1 % drop rate,you could do 5k runs without looting it.or one your first try.

Drop rates are so low because sts more than likely will not release another arc amulet for a long time (maybe we will get one more..)

It's a good thing.

Eat up some of that birthday money.

[extrapayah]

rerolling from legendary rarity is more or less equal to another roll chance from killing the boss once again, everyone posted here know that we can reroll into set item, but the significance is too low to spend reroll lix with.

anyway a friend said it was normal to have that kind of percentage, so nvm this post.

the info was given by a dev, that's why i cencored the name with red

[ilhanna]

if someone told you that the chance of looting an item is 0.0002% with cool expression :D


I'd say why bother putting resources on elaborate set bonus and upgrade quest when it can only be played by minuscule less than one percenters.

[stricker20000]

To all the nonbelievers on the power of reroll:



And for the nonbelievers of the legitimacy of this post:
Click here for thrrad quote was taken from. (http://www.spacetimestudios.com/showthread.php?315169-Design-Blog-Adjustments-to-Luck-Elixirs-Mythics-and-Arcanes-can-drop-from-mobs!&highlight=Reroll).

The best way to attack farming these set items is:
A)use a luck elixir, lepre and an Arlor ring. I prefer using the 30% loot elixir but TBH I end up rerolling more times on the mobs than the bosses, even though I dont use a lepre at bosses, this part is for the benefit of someone who posted on this thread actually had the audacity to once say maybe I might be slowing down runs because I used lepre during mobs(hasn't forgotten about all those rogue trolls when I made a buff warriors and mages post).
B)Maybe stop complaining that the best way to farm is "get banned and unbanned and farm a free lazarith jewel" on forums and actually go farm. Unveiled attempt to make OP actually go farm.
C) Try nott to reroll during mobs, each time you drop a legendary item without rerolling at boss just think of it as a "missed" SET item drop chance. To simplify things: each time you loot a legendary from boss no rerolls that legendary item could have been rerolled for a set item.

All that being said, I hope you've better luck now, all puns intended. I also hope this makes it possible for OP and co. to understand why reroll is something that doesn't let STS tell us the exact numbers. They could tell us the drop chances for the antignome pieces from bosses but that would be only without the reroll and I bet the chances for those are horribly bleak.

On a side note, maybe try nott using heal during runs to increase efficiency of your runs@somenub mage on this thread.

Each time you loot a legendary item at boss, that happens like once in 50runs and then you have ~50% chance to reroll and then if you reroll on the legendary item you just get the same chance to loot set item as kf you just killed boss.
So if you do 50runs and loot one legendary without reroll, well you did 50 runs. If you do 50 runs and reroll on legendary, wow then you did 51 runs. Not a big deal at all. Wasting money on that luck elixiers in these maps doesn't really help. Doesn't work like farming crates.

Of course they could tell chances without reroll lol. I don't think their RNG sets the drop rates for dofferent items on itself.
Firther more you could calculate the exact chance by knowing the rate to loot a legendary item (you need that one without reroll) and the rate of looting set item. You would know rate to loot legendary, rate to reroll and rate to loot set item then.

The chances to loot set item via re-roll are so much lower than lootin it without. If we knew the rates not only the rats without reroll would be horribly bleak.

If you have 50% luck then the chance to loot set item via luck is already divided by 2 (legendary rate/2). Then it has to be multiplied with the drop rate of set item in loot table which isn't even close to 0,5%.
Even if the chance to loot legendary or set item woukd both be 5% which is way to high the chance to loot set item by rerolling already is down to 0,125%. If loot rates both are 1% its down to 0,005%. Do you feel it getting ridiculously low?

[stricker20000]

rerolling from legendary rarity is more or less equal to another roll chance from killing the boss once again, everyone posted here know that we can reroll into set item, but the significance is too low to spend reroll lix with.

anyway a friend said it was normal to have that kind of percentage, so nvm this post.

the info was given by a dev, that's why i cencored the name with red

Interesting. I expected such a drop rate tho lol

[stricker20000]

You are speaking about hypothetical cases and false numbers.

The lets say in itself not a plausible statement. How about I say "let's say" set item is a 100%? There is no way to argue with that.

What I've posted is what I know is the best way to increase your chances of obtaining a set item drop from bosses. The only thing viable on your post is 55% luck reroll...

For me I've managed to get an unrerolled into legendary every 30 or so runs, this is being uncharacteristically pessimistic. I do get an unrerolled legendary 2-3 consecutively in runs and I also get dry streaks without a legendary drop(rerolled or nott) for 20-30 runs, that there is RNG.

I've probably looted 3-4m worth of gear and chests from rerolls in Underhul, I've spent maybe 2mish, maybe more for both the numbers.

This thread was about how futile running for set items is and I posted a few reasons why you might be stuck in a tunnel with no light in sight. The only reason I took the time to post was because people were making posts without any base about how "reroll" doesn't help, myth(no pun intended this time) busting can be fun if the other party is englightened in the process if not there's a saying that goes "you can bring the horse to the river but you cant make it drink".

Hope it cleared things up and you've better luck now. I'll stop commenting because it eats on my time to play the game.

1/30*0,55*1/2000 = 0,000916% to loot set item on reroll still. Took the 1/2000 chance for set item because we have easily done 2000 runs wothout set item. I'm just curious if you don't want to understand how luck works towards set items or if you just don't understand it.
Lootin encrusted chest, golden chest etc. with luck elixier is another thing.

That means for those rates: The chances to loot a set item without any re-roll is more than 50x higher than looting it with reroll.

I doubt that 0,050916% instead of 0,05% is worth buying luck elixiers. BTW if 1/30 is the rate for lootin legendary without re-roll and you have 55% re-roll chance the probability for lootin set item without reroll will always be about 55x higher than looting it with re-roll, no matter what the rate for set item is.

[Niixed]

My take is that a 0.0002% chance to loot anything (even with luck boosts) is discouraging and useless to the individual player. I wish devs would break out of their 'players-as-a-group' thinking and see things from the perspective of the individual more often.

A community is composed of individuals with individual ideas, individual agendas and individual needs. The reality is that most players aren't going to try hard for something knowing that they, individually, have a joke-of-a-chance to loot that three-map-set item. I know I'm not interested. This game calls us all "heroes" but this design virtually guarantees that only the occasional lucky lottery winner gets to be the 'hero.' It's so rare that devs have resorted to blasting a system message every time someone loots it! o.0

I dislike set bonuses because it means we are railroaded into wearing the gear that the developer chooses. In the future, will STS just dump itemization entirely and go with exactly the same gear for everyone? Are we just along for the ride? Where's freedom, variety, and choice? I'm not demanding anything, it just feels like those qualities aren't even being considered anymore.

[Suentous PO]

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item




I never said it guaranties, i said its the top of bell curve which means the most likely senario is you hit it in that number, whats so hard to get this?

It's not, but your language is "expect" and even though you use the qualifier "like" which could imply you might have thought 500k roll will absolutly hit one #.
All I implied is you could do that and it is possible to not drop it, dig?
Then ppl kept trying to exposing bell curves which I wasn't addressing.

@ Ir - like the Lightning scenario I just kept trying to say not that it could never happen but that it might not.

There is no guarantee

[p-value]

It's not, but your language is "expect" and even though you use the qualifier "like" which could imply you might have thought 500k roll will absolutly hit one...

Not at all how I read it, nor based on that poster's other replies what they meant.

It is, in fact, the very definition in probability: *Expectation*, which *is* 1 for the example the poster gave.

[extrapayah]

Not at all how I read it, nor based on that poster's other replies what they meant.

It is, in fact, the very definition in probability: *Expectation*, which *is* 1 for the example the poster gave.

thanks for clearing this :P, i'm not a native, so i usually make mistakes, pardon me

[xutreuqux]

Derailing is strong with this thread

[Memnochthedevil]

I dont think for set items re-roll counts. Friend looted mold without lep or luck elixir. Is just luck without the re-roll factor involved.

[stricker20000]

Derailing is strong with this thread

I don't think it really derailed, it just went deeper into detail about loot chances and how re-roll affects them.

[stricker20000]

I dont think for set items re-roll counts. Friend looted mold without lep or luck elixir. Is just luck without the re-roll factor involved.

basically yes but there is very very low chance to get it on re-roll but as I/we explained...it is so low that it is not worth it.

[Melthyz]

Besides the Cryostar / Elite Cryostar I personally don't these maps are worth farming. The legendary drops that comes from these maps have no value. The coins you gathered from these maps are pretty worthless since you'll end up spending way more on ankhs and pots. Basically, unless you get extremely lucky you'll end up on the wrong end of this deal.

[Fenerx]

if someone told you that the chance of looting an item is 0.0002% with cool expression :D

so we will need like 500,000 runs to expect looting one item, and then, knowing that 1 run is approximately 20 minutes, it's a whooping 10 million minutes needed!, converted into hours, it's around 150,000 hours, 6000 days, 20 years, of 24/7 playing times...

P.S.: thank you for the transparency, we definitely need this more
Lol man 0.0002 chance to get in one chest. Maybe if u opening 100000000000 chest and looted the item or opening 1 chest and looted that item

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[Kaziscate]

This is obviously a lie. What moron has done 500k runs? Thats right, therefore lie.

It takes 500k runs for a 100% chance.

[Kaziscate]

Correct me if I am wrong,but with the drop rate for the helm and belt being 0.0002% from elite Cryostar, it would be 0.00024% (with egg shell ring only),0.00026% (with lepre only),0.0003%(with 25% luck elixir only or have egg ring and lepre equipped),0.00032%(with 30% luck elixir only),0.00034% (25% luck elixir+egg ring[35% in total]), 0.00036% (25% luck elixir+lepre or have 30% luck elixir+egg ring[40% in total]),0.00038% (30% Luck elixir+lepre [45% in total]),0.0004% (25% luck+lepre+egg ring[50% luck]), and 0.00042% (30% luck+lepre+egg ring[55% in total]) Also, i am basing this off the new reroll system where 1 reroll counts as 2 runs


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[Neisser Moya]

I ate cake around 3 times and twice pancakes while i was reading, i think i never read so much O.o

[Neisser Moya]

I ate 3 times cake and twice pancakes while i read, i think i never read this much O.o

[extrapayah]

Correct me if I am wrong,but with the drop rate for the helm and belt being 0.0002% from elite Cryostar, it would be 0.00024% (with egg shell ring only),0.00026% (with lepre only),0.0003%(with 25% luck elixir only or have egg ring and lepre equipped),0.00032%(with 30% luck elixir only),0.00034% (25% luck elixir+egg ring[35% in total]), 0.00036% (25% luck elixir+lepre or have 30% luck elixir+egg ring[40% in total]),0.00038% (30% Luck elixir+lepre [45% in total]),0.0004% (25% luck+lepre+egg ring[50% luck]), and 0.00042% (30% luck+lepre+egg ring[55% in total]) Also, i am basing this off the new reroll system where 1 reroll counts as 2 runs


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it's not that high, the end percentage of getting yellow loot would be:

[percentage of directly looting yellow] + [percentage of directly looting legendary] * [total loot reroll chance] * [percentage of directly looting yellow]

if we insert numbers into it and let's say percentage of directly looting legendary is as high as 50%, and we use maximum reroll buffs we can get, it will be

0.0002 + 0.5 * 0.55 * 0.0002 = it's 0.000255, not 0.0004ish :P

[Fredystern]

Unbelievable

A simple thread summon lots of math master on forum *-*

[Fredystern]

I agree with you, luck elixir is a total waste at underhul. I'm not sure if a lep makes a difference. I just put it on cuz it seems like the right thing to do.

Nope, luck elixir was very useful in underhul, if you reroll in underhul after killing boss, its like you kill the boss twice so you got the second chance to set (only works if got legendary - arcane) in other hand if you got common - epic its work like in other map common become rare, rare - epic, epic - legend vroom explained it

[Melthyz]

Nope, luck elixir was very useful in underhul, if you reroll in underhul after killing boss, its like you kill the boss twice so you got the second chance to set (only works if got legendary - arcane) in other hand if you got common - epic its work like in other map common become rare, rare - epic, epic - legend vroom explained it
Umm... and wat have u looted with luck elixir on antignome pieces? A mold perhaps? I haven't looted anything from underhul with or w/o luck elixir on..

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[Fredystern]

Umm... and wat have u looted with luck elixir on antignome pieces? A mold perhaps? I haven't looted anything from underhul with or w/o luck elixir on..

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Nothing :D i didnt lvl up my character to 56 since i stay in 47 for pvp, i only run in underhul when my guildmate need help =$

[Melthyz]

Well until u run those maps a few hundred times n come up empty handed u wouldn't know wat we're referring to.

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[p-value]

Btw its not %100 on 500k run with 0.0002 rate its just expected run count to get. You can get sooner or later than 500k run but most likely close to that number

Bold emphasis mine: Careful with your wording there. 500k is *not* the most likely (which is of course 1, the mode of the distribution. IOW, you are *most likely* to succeed on the first attempt compared to succeeding on any other specific attempt).

500k is the *mean* of the distribution. Nothing more, nothing less. It is ~1.44 X the median, or said another way, half of the players would see success before 500000/1.44 ~346575 attempts.

[p-value]

althought as you said the chance begins before 500k as half the chunk of bellcurve is there the biggest probability is the median
but if you say total number of players who got earlier whi,ch is the area under curve yes you are right but also same amount got it more than 500k run on the right side

my assumption is based on this actually just like coin flip
https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/figures/expact.png

put it simple its same chance to get it 346575 and 653425

No, it's not.

You are ~1.85 X more likely get you first success on trial 346575 versus trial 653425.

The distribution of trials to first success is most certainly *not* a "bellcurve", it is a geometically decaying distribution (hence the name).

The mean is greater than the median because of the *weight* of tails (number of trials), *not* their probabilities, and the "biggest probability" is most certainly not the median, it's the mode, which as I said is 1.

[Melthyz]

Any rocket scientists here that would like to make an input? Holy smokes, if it drops it drops, if it doesn't well maybe next time. There you go I just figured out the formula... You're Welcome!!!

[p-value]

...then enlighten me if you make distrubution for all cases total runs lets say 1m total run over months how many pieces are we gonna see in game?
say it like prob of 1 piece is:2 pieces is: 3 piece is:

That would of course be the binomial distribution. Here's the PMF for 0 to 4 seen by trials:

152689

Note that these are not a "bellcurve" - the probability is much too low for the # of trials under consideration to be using the normal approximation.

[Sorayai]

Is this mathematic competition or just
"What do u think"?
Lol

[Melthyz]

Sorry, what was this thread about? I'm assuming rocket science or something of that nature...

[stricker20000]

Correct me if I am wrong,but with the drop rate for the helm and belt being 0.0002% from elite Cryostar, it would be 0.00024% (with egg shell ring only),0.00026% (with lepre only),0.0003%(with 25% luck elixir only or have egg ring and lepre equipped),0.00032%(with 30% luck elixir only),0.00034% (25% luck elixir+egg ring[35% in total]), 0.00036% (25% luck elixir+lepre or have 30% luck elixir+egg ring[40% in total]),0.00038% (30% Luck elixir+lepre [45% in total]),0.0004% (25% luck+lepre+egg ring[50% luck]), and 0.00042% (30% luck+lepre+egg ring[55% in total]) Also, i am basing this off the new reroll system where 1 reroll counts as 2 runs


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I guess you can't say that because it depends on legendary drop rate. I calculated the chance for set item from boss if legendary drop rate was 1/30. Im not sure how you calculated that but it seems wrong to me. If I noticed it correctly you calculated those numbers based on a pink drop every run.

So pretty optimistic numbers :P

[stricker20000]

No, it's not.

You are ~1.85 X more likely get you first success on trial 346575 versus trial 653425.

The distribution of trials to first success is most certainly *not* a "bellcurve", it is a geometically decaying distribution (hence the name).

The mean is greater than the median because of the *weight* of tails (number of trials), *not* their probabilities, and the "biggest probability" is most certainly not the median, it's the mode, which as I said is 1.

What Ireliaa meant is that the probability regarding each try specifically is always the same.
What p-value meant is that the probability to loot the set item after 500000 runs is higher than looting it after 700000 runs if you consider the total number of runs you have already done.

I know what p-value is referring to but I can not reproduce the "course" of the probability in your diagram, e.g. maximum for 1 set item is at 500k trials.

[Carapace]

super fascinating thread.

Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.

Just food for thought :)

[stricker20000]

Bold emphasis mine: Careful with your wording there. 500k is *not* the most likely (which is of course 1, the mode of the distribution. IOW, you are *most likely* to succeed on the first attempt compared to succeeding on any other specific attempt).

500k is the *mean* of the distribution. Nothing more, nothing less. It is ~1.44 X the median, or said another way, half of the players would see success before 500000/1.44 ~346575 attempts.

346575 attempts lol. Thats about 20 years of farming if one run takes 5min and 4 hours of pure farming every day. I doubt anyone plays old game standard like this in 20years. Nothing against your numbers, they seem to be right. It's just ridiculous thinking about it as a individual player/farmer.

[stricker20000]

super fascinating thread.

Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.

Just food for thought :)

Thats true but its so luck based that farming for it is barely worth it. It would be worth it if a player would farm for other stuff( that is actually lootable but still worth something) there and loots the set item just additionally as a "lottery reward".

Anyways I'm still a fan of a system that rewards farming. Like a progress an individual farmer makes towards an item. Farming for the mythic glintstone set was hard too but players had a progress farming it since fangs were lootable. You needed hundreds of fangs but you got more and more parts of the set the more you farmed. For set item it is like: "well...win the lottery or farm for nothing and end up buying it."

What I am trying to say is that the individual player doesn't benefit from farming, it is purely luck based and doesn't matter if you are a hardworking farmer or not.

[Melthyz]

Thats true but its so luck based that farming for it is barely worth it. It would be worth it if a player would farm for other stuff( that is actually lootable but still worth something) there and loots the set item just additionally as a "lottery reward".

Anyways I'm still a fan of a system that rewards farming. Like a progress an individual farmer makes towards an item. Farming for the mythic glintstone set was hard too but players had a progress farming it since fangs were lootable. You needed hundreds of fangs but you got more and more parts of the set the more you farmed. For set item it is like: "well...win the lottery or farm for nothing and end up buying it."

What I am trying to say is that the individual player doesn't benefit from farming, it is purely luck based and doesn't matter if you are a hardworking farmer or not.

They substituted it with coins, abeit a poor one since the price of those keep dropping by the day. I totally agree with you as much as the Glinstone set was a pain in the butt at least there were other side items we could've looted to make some gold. Underhul is more like "set item" or bust even those gold chest are pretty rare, looted 3-4 elite gold heretics and i've ran those maps hundreds of times...

[stricker20000]

They substituted it with coins, abeit a poor one since the price of those keep dropping by the day. I totally agree with you as much as the Glinstone set was a pain in the butt at least there were other side items we could've looted to make some gold. Underhul is more like "set item" or bust even those gold chest are pretty rare, looted 3-4 elite gold heretics and i've ran those maps hundreds of times...

Farming those maps is absolutely not worth it unless you loot set item.

[Plqgue]

super fascinating thread.

Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.

Just food for thought :)
But weeks and weeks of farming for nothing is also boring

[Niixed]

super fascinating thread.

Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.

Just food for thought :)

Thank you for your input Carapace.

Maybe the issue is that devs haven't fully accounted for psychological and social effects that exceedingly low odds have on players collectively? If we, individually, can't be a hero, then why are we playing the game? If my individual efforts are extremely likely to yield negative results in perpetuity, then what motive do I have to attempt that feat? Players don't want an oversupply, but we also don't want to literally-impossible odds.

AL's odds model strongly affects player activity because the transaction cost (time+money) is extremely high. In Vegas, slot machines have impossible odds, but they are still attractive because the effort needed to play is minimal: place bet, pull lever, done. These days it takes less than a second per transaction.

AL's equivalent slot machine requires us to run something akin to a marathon each time we pull the lever. This is exactly what I mean about players-as-a-group thinking: if the odds don't justify individual runs, individuals won't attempt. Thoroughly considering the individual's perspective will help you make better decisions about players collectively. That group of players choosing not to attempt to farm the Antignome set will only grow as the extremely low odds become more apparent through personal experience and social communications. Shouldn't one of the devs' top priorities be player participation? :(

In basic economics, undersupply and oversupply are equally serious states. What is the actual equilibrium? I don't know, but I do know disequilibrium is what we have right now.

[Kaziscate]

super fascinating thread.

Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.

Just food for thought :)

So if 1 million people farmed the Elite Cryostar for the set helm/belt, 2 people will get the set helm/belt?

[extrapayah]

also don't forget that, the thing we're trying to get is 1 out of 5 set item that will likely outdated next season (and even worse, it have upgrades), it's not like planar pendant, and we can't finish elite citadel+cryostar as fast as arena last two seasons.

also you made the set drop rate by thinking that it is community who's farming, but banished helm is not even tradeable! and you have to farm by your own for the last piece, the amulet (okay not by your own, but it's only for who already finished the quest!, and at half season, they were only 1-2 person!)

and aside from that, the loot distribution in whole arlor world is not distributed correctly based on effort of game time, longer and more difficult maps doesn't seem to give more benefit than running dozen of easier map at equal accumulative time, this problem won't rise if only devs play their game regularly

a bit out of topic, hunter elixir were designed to have short time assuming we can got multiple entries from others' invite, but after the 'lazy' fix, you haven't redesigned the hunter elixir...

also, please fix the unresponsiveness of the recent client... too many freeze, lags, fake ping, i think you need to find a way to make your client and system responsive enough even when we have weapons/skills that deals enormously multiple hits like aegis or flameforged staff. like grouping multiple hits damage into one. the messages transferred between client and server should be scalable, that it is possible to compress or group multiple commands/feedback into a static sized message

[Niixed]

also you made the set drop rate by thinking that it is community who's farming, but banished helm is not even tradeable! and you have to farm by your own for the last piece, the amulet (okay not by your own, but it's only for who already finished the quest!, and at half season, they were only 1-2 person!)

Just wanted to highlight this salient point. [emphasis mine]

[extrapayah]

even though it's farmed by community, how do you think we should value the item? i think most of us will think the value of the item by comparing it with the effort we will need to farm the item personally.

let's say with that kind of droprate, i expect myself to loot it by 16 years of playing non-stop, so even if i'm using as low as 10k gold per day as a daily income, i will think that any price below 60m is actually more cost/time efficient! is it okay having a 60m item that will be expired in one season? and again, it's only one piece out of several pieces!

even i feel it's not right when i sold a raw cryostar core at 10m, but after knowing how low the droprate is, it's way too underpriced, and calling a 10m item as underpriced is not ok, however you see it

[stricker20000]

even though it's farmed by community, how do you think we should value the item? i think most of us will think the value of the item by comparing it with the effort we will need to farm the item personally.

let's say with that kind of droprate, i expect myself to loot it by 16 years of playing non-stop, so even if i'm using as low as 10k gold per day as a daily income, i will think at any price below 60m is actually more cost/time efficient! is it okay having a 60m item that will be expired in one season?

Indeed but they can not just increase the drop rate significantly to make it lootable for everyone because that would flood the market. But there should be some progress while farming. Even if it is just the drop rate increasing with the number of bosses killed there until you loot it. Can not be the right way to let farming be non sense.

[Faliziaga]

super fascinating thread.

Just to inject a bit of how we utilize this kind of stuff, the original poster is doing an example from the point of view of a single person farming a single item for themselves. Unfortunately in an MMO the reality is that while you may want the item for yourself, there are thousands of others that also want this item. So if you have say 10,000 people with those odds farming for certain things then you start to see that it's not about an individual farming an item, but the entire server farming for an item. This is where the largest disconnect is when it comes to loot distribution, because you have to think in terms of the entire player base and not the individual experience. If the odds were in favor of every person farming for themselves in a reasonable amount of time no one would be farming anymore because everyone is sick of getting the drop that isn't worth anything. In the end it all goes back to basic economics, and supply and demand.

Just food for thought :)

I would like to know whether the current in game amount of antignome helms and belts corresponds to what you've expected the entire player base to have looted after all these weeks since the expansion is out. Do you think the supply is adequate? Furthermore I would like to know what your data reveals about the development of number of runs made in the new maps in the last weeks. Personally, I am stuck at 3/5 parts of the antignome set (helm and belt missing) and after weeks of very intense farming I have completely stopped to run these maps for a while now.
In my opinion there is a wide field between only a handful of people owning the antignome set and people getting tired looting set items not worth anything because of an oversupply. Players want to enjoy new content, there should be fun and less boring, endlessly repetitive, non-sense, frustrating runs that lead to nothing and are topped with the crafted armors' stats randomness.

[Ardbeg]

Just a short correction: You can activate the questlines by lending the gear. This also holds true for the last part of the quest, the banished amulet. There are definitively more than 1-2 players hunting it, but it is an exclusive sport with the necessary elixier.

[stricker20000]

Just a short correction: You can activate the questlines by lending the gear. This also holds true for the last part of the quest, the banished amulet. There are definitively more than 1-2 players hunting it, but it is an exclusive sport with the necessary elixier.

True but the need to lend the gear to skip antignome set can't be aimed. On top of that elite maps are pretty hard without antignome set and don't give real profit. (pots, ankhs,...)

[Ardbeg]

True but the need to lend the gear to skip antignome set can't be aimed. On top of that elite maps are pretty hard without antignome set and don't give real profit. (pots, ankhs,...)

It is designed that way, so it can be lended, that was confirmed by Vroom. All in all (Underhuul timed runs aside) it is a very expensive set with limited use and no relevance in pvp. It makes runs exciting because you know you *could* hit the jackpot, but it s not practically farmable.
As i stated before, thats ok with me as long as there are ways to progress on the new maps without the set. So far this scheme has made poor lucky farmers rich and rich unlucky collectors poor, lol.

[Kingofninjas]

Thank you for your input Carapace.

Maybe the issue is that devs haven't fully accounted for psychological and social effects that exceedingly low odds have on players collectively? If we, individually, can't be a hero, then why are we playing the game? If my individual efforts are extremely likely to yield negative results in perpetuity, then what motive do I have to attempt that feat? Players don't want an oversupply, but we also don't want to literally-impossible odds.

AL's odds model strongly affects player activity because the transaction cost (time+money) is extremely high. In Vegas, slot machines have impossible odds, but they are still attractive because the effort needed to play is minimal: place bet, pull lever, done. These days it takes less than a second per transaction.

AL's equivalent slot machine requires us to run something akin to a marathon each time we pull the lever. This is exactly what I mean about players-as-a-group thinking: if the odds don't justify individual runs, individuals won't attempt. Thoroughly considering the individual's perspective will help you make better decisions about players collectively. That group of players choosing not to attempt to farm the Antignome set will only grow as the extremely low odds become more apparent through personal experience and social communications. Shouldn't one of the devs' top priorities be player participation? :(

In basic economics, undersupply and oversupply are equally serious states. What is the actual equilibrium? I don't know, but I do know disequilibrium is what we have right now.

I think the closest AL ever reached towards farming equilibrium was with the planar tombs (when breeze was worth 1-3m).

Every single run was rewarded with planar fragments, with a chance for planar tomb chests which commanded some value because they contained the means to make the best fear in the game.

[Eagleye]

It is designed that way, so it can be lended, that was confirmed by Vroom. All in all (Underhuul timed runs aside) it is a very expensive set with limited use and no relevance in pvp. It makes runs exciting because you know you *could* hit the jackpot, but it s not practically farmable.
As i stated before, thats ok with me as long as there are ways to progress on the new maps without the set. So far this scheme has made poor lucky farmers rich and rich unlucky collectors poor, lol.

If it was truly designed to be "lended" that's absolute stupidity on the Dev's part. Sorry to say most of the people in this game arnt gonna be willing to lend out hella pricey items. That's literally promoting scamming ..the fact that you can lend is cool to complete the quests but unrealistic for the majority. This set was made specifically for the 1% of the 1% and im still confused as to how sts doesn't see a problem in that. Your average endgame player will never see a full antignome set and that's disheartening for a lot of players. Your opinion is obviously bias because you have it, so of course your gonna defend it. You and a handful of players are the only ones with full sets and imo defending it is selfish at this point. How many elite runs have you gotten to do with full antignome or banished parties? Its staggeringly low if at all and the expansion has been out for months...something's gotta give at this point that's a no brainer.

[Ardbeg]

If it was truly designed to be "lended" that's absolute stupidity on the Dev's part. Sorry to say most of the people in this game arnt gonna be willing to lend out hella pricey items. That's literally promoting scamming ..the fact that you can lend is cool to complete the quests but unrealistic for the majority. This set was made specifically for the 1% of the 1% and im still confused as to how sts doesn't see a problem in that. Your average endgame player will never see a full antignome set and that's disheartening for a lot of players. Your opinion is obviously bias because you have it, so of course your gonna defend it. You and a handful of players are the only ones with full sets and imo defending it is selfish at this point. How many elite runs have you gotten to do with full antignome or banished parties? Its staggeringly low if at all and the expansion has been out for months...something's gotta give at this point that's a no brainer.

Please read my post again, especially the last sentence.

I am ok with having items of all tiers in this game, be it RNG or crafting. All i was trying to state again was, that this obviously was never intended to be farmed by one person, but to add some excitement to the maps. This is something completely different to the Glintstone set and thats all i wanted to say. Don't shoot the messenger, give your Feedback to sts please!

[Luciano Lobo]

I just prefer that the coin and token system will always be present for everything because I don't want to die farming or spend years in getting something useful. I like to farm but no to the point of ludopathy.

[Eagleye]

Please read my post again, especially the last sentence.

I am ok with having items of all tiers in this game, be it RNG or crafting. All i was trying to state again was, that this obviously was never intended to be farmed by one person, but to add some excitement to the maps. This is something completely different to the Glintstone set and thats all i wanted to say. Don't shoot the messenger, give your Feedback to sts please!

The messenger hasn't been shot just sharing my opinion .. And your one of the few who defend it so expect to clash with others who feel strongly different about it.

[Ardbeg]

here we are on lending talk again, just like the times lending gold for midas touch, sounds genious

well good luck with your exclusive sport, I made enough to get the set by sitting on expedition camp than doing this exclusive sport. I could go for it, But there is the problem the party im gonna farm most likely wont have the set and they will die like flies which will lead my teams and my own deaths, team will give up ill give up

without the set farming elites is torture and im not a tank i cant lead the pt and save ppl besides you burn elixir on your wasted time aswell

you and avaree talk like its cake event here vanity weapon drops like cake gold flowing everywhere furnitues awesome to farm etc Its simply No the only gold income to regular players is the events like previous goblin event and hoarded goblin chests thats flowing gold and it actually hyped up the economy a bit

farming at this time is horrific and frustratingif you design a dungeon to be hard you adjust loot acordingly and idk others but vanity wesapon isnt my type of motivation on farm

Dont play deaf and blind please, game havent made only for you two and few more

1)I was not promoting the lending system. I was here when borrowed Midas Touch and Arcane Rings led to tons of Drama. In fact i was asking if this is a glitch when i first noticed it.

2)All normal maps and elite map 1 and 2 are very much doable with normal gear (yes, we did that with old glintstone sets) craft some effigys, grab a tank.

3)I looted 6-7 vanity weapons so far, at one day two, which is not so bad in terms of drop rate, people just don't want to pay for the hunter lix (which is tradable). Wether this is sufficient or not for all, it is just one way of looting real farmable things. Everyone is free to give his own feedback.

About the furniture i already stated in another thread that imho the upkeep fee kills the housing demand.

4) Yes, Tanks are not optional in new maps again (and neither are the other classes) and thats a great thing.

I didn't compare it to the cake event, but gave my mixed feedback based on what we run and what we get. Everyone is free to do the same to deliver a complete picture to sts.

[p-value]

...I know what p-value is referring to but I can not reproduce the "course" of the probability in your diagram, e.g. maximum for 1 set item is at 500k trials.It's just the PMF of the distribution at 0,1,2,3 and 4 for each curve (its maximum for one is bimodal at 499999 and 500000 trials). Hope that clarifies it for you.

[control]

Lol, a thread where everyone is right. Most of us have been playing since pocket legends time and the question that bothers most is how to drop legendary or vanity items.
I say play with rogue as its skills have maximum damage and believe in yourself to make your own luck. Also don't be greedy if you get a lemon make a lemonade.
Python

[extrapayah]

anyway with the tendency of devs saying that it's community who's farming, i can't hold myself of thinking that the drop rate in this game is also affected by community, like how crane machine works (failed attempts from other people help increasing chance for next try).

ofc no exact/definite proofs with this accusation, but assuming people who claimed opened 15k plat and got no samael (at the time when nobody opened crates thanks to waiting for event) is telling the truth, market overflooded with planar pendant recipe, and individually get more recipes even though as individual they plays at similar time, similar length of time, fossils looters from arena, complaints of crates drop rate at the time no one farms for it, it might be true.

and if that's how it works, it's not fair, because players can't see/guess the current droprate

[stricker20000]

It is designed that way, so it can be lended, that was confirmed by Vroom. All in all (Underhuul timed runs aside) it is a very expensive set with limited use and no relevance in pvp. It makes runs exciting because you know you *could* hit the jackpot, but it s not practically farmable.
As i stated before, thats ok with me as long as there are ways to progress on the new maps without the set. So far this scheme has made poor lucky farmers rich and rich unlucky collectors poor, lol.

Is there any other reason to run those maps besides looting set? nope. Thats why many stop farming those maps because the only way to get the set is to buy it for millions. Those "exciting" runs stoped being exciting after having done 500+...they are rather frustrating. Farming = useless

[stricker20000]

It's just the PMF of the distribution at 0,1,2,3 and 4 for each curve (its maximum for one is bimodal at 499999 and 500000 trials). Hope that clarifies it for you.

Yea it seems right to me. I'm just not sure how you calculated the ~0,4 probability for 500k trials? I probably do something wrong but if I calculate it I get something very much lower.

[stricker20000]

anyway with the tendency of devs saying that it's community who's farming, i can't hold myself of thinking that the drop rate in this game is also affected by community, like how crane machine works (failed attempts from other people help increasing chance for next try).

ofc no exact/definite proofs with this accusation, but assuming people who claimed opened 15k plat and got no samael (at the time when nobody opened crates thanks to waiting for event) is telling the truth, market overflooded with planar pendant recipe, and individually get more recipes even though as individual they plays at similar time, similar length of time, fossils looters from arena, complaints of crates drop rate at the time no one farms for it, it might be true.

and if that's how it works, it's not fair, because players can't see/guess the current droprate

We were/are thinking that too. Like some "pool" of items, or rather some kind of sequence (like set item every 500k runs). So if nobody plays the maps nobody will loot the item because nobody does the 499.999 runs for other loot. So the hardcore farmers just clear the table from useless stuff for some random guy who kills boss at the right time.

[Carapace]

We do not do any kind of behind the scenes inflation or manipulation of drop rates based on participation, lack of participation, lack of drop rates, or other factors. The odds are odds and we let probability and RNG take the wheel in all cases.

[Niixed]

We do not do any kind of behind the scenes inflation or manipulation of drop rates based on participation, lack of participation, lack of drop rates, or other factors. The odds are odds and we let probability and RNG take the wheel in all cases.

Developers are the ones who set up the odds to begin with. I don't think anyone is asking for something extraordinary or unprecedented like secret drop rate buffs.

If zero players were participating in farming the antignome set, that wouldn't have any bearing at all on what actions you might take? I hope it would. :(

I've already decided not to farm or acquire the antignome/banished set, so i don't care much about whether devs change the drop rate now. I'm here trying to change your mind about future decisions. The antignome/banished set has such narrow appeal because it only works in three maps and it is coupled with a ridiculously low drop rate.