Who can tell me the probability of getting a maul from elite gold war 3 ?

[Aafairy]

I don’t know whether to sell my chests or not ?

[THE GOLDEN KING]

I don’t know whether to sell my chests or not ?


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If you open 10,000 chests, guaranteed 1-3 mauls, I opened 1,000 and got nothing.


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[Irg]

Assuming its same with kershal and hook, 1in 2500
In reference to the old thread i made i got 4-6hook from 15000elite gold pirate and 4kershal from 10000puzzle
If i remember correctly

[Gufugufutwo]

My guildie accidentally opened a gold elite chest 3 and looted mail.. lmao

[Aafairy]

Ty,guys


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[arcanefid]

If you open 10,000 chests, guaranteed 1-3 mauls, I opened 1,000 and got nothing.


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Not sure if bait. Anyway, I'll bite.

How is it guaranteed that 1-3 mauls drop from 10,000 chests?

[THE GOLDEN KING]

Not sure if bait. Anyway, I'll bite.

How is it guaranteed that 1-3 mauls drop from 10,000 chests?

Because if I would have opened 5,000 I would have looted at least 1 within the 1,500-4,500 zone. So if you open 10,000 you can loot 2 and if lucky 3+.

I opened 1,000 and looted two level 31 mythic armors for mage, so if I would of have 5,000 that would mean at least 1 guaranteed maul. From what I’ve read and some research I’ve done. That’s how I know.


(Research as in threads I’ve read, and also YouTube videos about opening the chests.)


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[PostNoob]

Nothing is guaranteed. U could open 3 and get one or you could open 1k and not. Its a gamble!

[arcanefid]

Because if I would have opened 5,000 I would have looted at least 1 within the 1,500-4,500 zone. So if you open 10,000 you can loot 2 and if lucky 3+.

I opened 1,000 and looted two level 31 mythic armors for mage, so if I would of have 5,000 that would mean at least 1 guaranteed maul. From what I’ve read and some research I’ve done. That’s how I know.

(Research as in threads I’ve read, and also YouTube videos about opening the chests.)

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Thanks for the answer. I think it's best that you do research on how statistics and probability work. It's possible that you open 1,000,000 chests and never get a Maul or Mythic item. Or you can get both items in one chest. You never know, nothing is guaranteed.

[THE GOLDEN KING]

Thanks for the answer. I think it's best that you do research on how statistics and probability work. It's possible that you open 1,000,000 chests and never get a Maul or Mythic item. Or you can get both items in one chest. You never know, nothing is guaranteed.

Prove me wrong, I guarantee you at least 1 maul from 5,000 chests. Sts implemented a type of % loot chance to loot a maul SIMILAR to;
(Example)95% chance on epic item
3% chance on mythic item
2% on arcane item

So you’ll either get lucky with a mythic or arcane item depending on X number of chests so if you have more, the probability on looting a maul is much higher than having only a few chests.


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[arcanefid]

Prove me wrong, I guarantee you at least 1 maul from 5,000 chests. Sts implemented a type of % loot chance to loot a maul SIMILAR to;
(Example)95% chance on epic item
3% chance on mythic item
2% on arcane item

So you’ll either get lucky with a mythic or arcane item depending on X number of chests so if you have more, the probability on looting a maul is much higher than having only a few chests.


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What do you mean "prove me wrong"? It's obvious knowledge that you're wrong.

The way you describe how STS implemented a "type of % loot chance to loot" further confirms that you skipped your math classes.

[THE GOLDEN KING]

What do you mean "prove me wrong"? It's obvious knowledge that you're wrong.

The way you describe how STS implemented a "type of % loot chance to loot" further confirms that you skipped your math classes.

So you’re saying that if I open 1,000,000 chests! I won’t loot a maul or mythic item? And I’m wrong? You can easily open 100 of these and loot amulet of doom or blood shuyal ring.

I’ve done my “research” on elite golden warchests, I’ve made my own experiment, I opened 1,000 chests and looted 2 mythic armors for mage (15 mythic amulets, and 9 Blood shuyal rings). With this I figured out that I either loot 1 maul or 2 mythic armors.
If I would of have 5,000 chests I can easily loot a maul with my eyes closed.

all I see is you just saying blank statements about how I’m not good at math. Thanks but no thanks, you know you’re knowledge and I know mine. The difference is that mine was actually tested and yours is just a theory. I don’t see your statistics or you trying to prove how you’re knowledge is correct and mine is faulty. Have you actually even opened any of these chests at all? If so you would have known what I’m talking about.


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[Alghost]

What do you mean "prove me wrong"? It's obvious knowledge that you're wrong.

The way you describe how STS implemented a "type of % loot chance to loot" further confirms that you skipped your math classes.

Have you ever opened any of these kind of elite chests before dude?

[arcanefid]

Have you ever opened any of these kind of elite chests before dude?

I did and I looted Mythic items. I didn’t count how many, but I open every chest I loot.

I’m not saying you won’t loot an Arcane Maul in 1,000,000 chests, but there is a slight chance that you will not.

You’re saying you are guaranteed a Maul in 5,000 chests, which cannot be true. You can loot 1, 2, 5, or even 100 Mauls of 5,000 chests, but to say something is “guaranteed” when talking about probability is just wrong.

What we’re discussing is not “your knowledge” and “my knowledge”, it’s scientific facts and you got them wrong.

[shadowronn]

In very simple English, Let is assume probably of looting an arcane hook is 1/10 or 10% and we know basic probability is number of favorable outcomes upon total number of outcomes so in this case total outcomes are 1,000,000 chests of which 100,000 contain arcane hook, if your luck sucks , you might open 900,000 empty chests hence not getting any arcane thus you can’t just guarantee an arcane.

[Disproof]

if u want to get it the chance is 0000000000000000000000000000000.1 % xD

[Bluehazee]

You should take a look at "Gambler's fallacy" or "Montecarlo's fallacy". Maybe you can understand how probability works in this cases

[hokaneko-mage]

Nothing is guaranteed. U could open 3 and get one or you could open 1k and not. Its a gamble!

Best answer that could be given.

[Aafairy]

Best answer that could be given.

I think so


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[Alghost]

I’m my opinion, you guys are over thinking this probability thing. This is not like the real world where if you flip a coin it lands on heads or tails. Sts put a % system for their chests, it’s not that it’s random, it’s that they can control the “luck” mechanism for their chests kinda like whole 0.60% chance to loot maul and 85% chance to loot epic gear. It’s something like that. Not sure where some of you got 1,000,000 chests and won’t loot a single maul but hey believe what you want.

[Spooked]

if u want to get it the chance is 0000000000000000000000000000000.1 % xD

So theres 10% chance you would get it? Seems like you need some more math classes buddy.
Quick explanation:
Every 0 before the . Counts as 1 so 0000000000000.1 is equal to 0.1= 10%

[Eatdamage]

So theres 10% chance you would get it? Seems like you need some more math classes buddy.
Quick explanation:
Every 0 before the . Counts as 1 so 0000000000000.1 is equal to 0.1= 10%

.1%==10% ???
Jesus Christ...its Jason Bourne

[Tookyo]

So theres 10% chance you would get it? Seems like you need some more math classes buddy.
Quick explanation:
Every 0 before the . Counts as 1 so 0000000000000.1 is equal to 0.1= 10%

Im rolling. And you told him he needs some math? Hahahahah 0.1/100 is 10%? What is 1.0/100 than? 100%?

[arcanefid]

I’m my opinion, you guys are over thinking this probability thing. This is not like the real world where if you flip a coin it lands on heads or tails. Sts put a % system for their chests, it’s not that it’s random, it’s that they can control the “luck” mechanism for their chests kinda like whole 0.60% chance to loot maul and 85% chance to loot epic gear. It’s something like that. Not sure where some of you got 1,000,000 chests and won’t loot a single maul but hey believe what you want.

There's nothing to "overthink" in here. We're just telling you that you CANNOT guarantee something that is itself based on probability, unless it is 100%. In Maul's case, it's not 100%.

The 1,000,000 is just an example. It's clear you have no idea what is being discussed here though, so I won't try to explain it.


.1%==10% ???
Jesus Christ...its Jason Bourne

He says 0.1=10% which is correct. Not 0.1%=10% like you're assuming because of your inability to read.


Im rolling. And you told him he needs some math? Hahahahah 0.1/100 is 10%? What is 1.0/100 than? 100%?

It's cringey when you laugh at someone smarter than you. 0.1 is equal to 00000000.1, and they're both equal to 10%.

0.1/100 is a number that you made up just to show everyone that you're ignorant.

[Eatdamage]

There's nothing to "overthink" in here. We're just telling you that you CANNOT guarantee something that is itself based on probability, unless it is 100%. In Maul's case, it's not 100%.

The 1,000,000 is just an example. It's clear you have no idea what is being discussed here though, so I won't try to explain it.





He says 0.1=10% which is correct. Not 0.1%=10% like you're assuming because of your inability to read.



It's cringey when you laugh at someone smarter than you. 0.1 is equal to 00000000.1, and they're both equal to 10%.

0.1/100 is a number that you made up just to show everyone that you're ignorant.

Please read the comment by 'disproof' that 'spooked' quoted and you will notice that he hasn't omitted the percentage sign as the latter claims. And about my inability to read English..well there are days when I wish I had never known a word of that language.

Lastly, I wouldn't equate mathematical knowledge with smartness or even intellect, my country invented quite a bit of it and most of us are as dumb as they come :D.

[arcanefid]

Please read the comment by 'disproof' that 'spooked' quoted and you will notice that he hasn't omitted the percentage sign as the latter claims. And about my inability to read English..well there are days when I wish I had never known a word of that language.

Lastly, I wouldn't equate mathematical knowledge with smartness or even intellect, my country invented quite a bit of it and most of us are as dumb as they come :D.

Well yeah, if we look at it that way, then you've got a point. Still though, Spooked's equation is correct, and Disproof put a space between the number and the % sign, which is ambiguous.

Edit: A maul is still not guaranteed to drop from 5,000 chests. XD

[THE GOLDEN KING]

There's nothing to "overthink" in here. We're just telling you that you CANNOT guarantee something that is itself based on probability, unless it is 100%. In Maul's case, it's not 100%.

The 1,000,000 is just an example. It's clear you have no idea what is being discussed here though, so I won't try to explain it.



He says 0.1=10% which is correct. Not 0.1%=10% like you're assuming because of your inability to read.



It's cringey when you laugh at someone smarter than you. 0.1 is equal to 00000000.1, and they're both equal to 10%.

0.1/100 is a number that you made up just to show everyone that you're ignorant.
*<~/(!!!ANSWER FOR THREAD!!!\)~>*

Please don’t act like you’re hovering above the rest of us. You can loot at least 1 maul with 5,000 chests. It’s your choice if you wish to deny it.

243 items within the chests(including maul, I counted)so there’s a 1/243 chance to loot the maul per chest.(if we’re talking probability)

if you got 5,000 chests that’s a 5,000/1,215,000 chance that you’ll loot the maul.

@ARCANEFID :) In other words it’s ((((0.004%(PERCECT) chance out of 100%)))) to loot a maul PER chest. in even more simpler terms there is a PERCENT within the chests.

so if you have 5,000 chests thats a 20.66% chance to loot a maul ONLY if you have 5,000 total chests. There’s your math.

Disproof wasn’t that off after all.


Ps. IF YOU WANT A GUARANTEED MAUL YOU’LL NEED 25,000 chests (obviously you don’t need this many to loot 1 maul. 5-10k should be enough but if you truly want to make sure you get 1, you need 25,000 of them.)


which is 250,000,000 gold to buy or if you farm, you can probably loot 5-10k a year of these if you got 65% +luck on your char and you farm for hours straight.(rogue/mage will be best suited) in my opinion. You’re welcome.




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[arcanefid]

*<~/(!!!ANSWER FOR THREAD!!!\)~>*

Please don’t act like you’re hovering above the rest of us. You can loot at least 1 maul with 5,000 chests. It’s your choice if you wish to deny it.

243 items within the chests(including maul, I counted)so there’s a 1/243 chance to loot the maul per chest.(if we’re talking probability)

if you got 5,000 chests that’s a 5,000/1,215,000 chance that you’ll loot the maul.

@ARCANEFID :) In other words it’s ((((0.004%(PERCECT) chance out of 100%)))) to loot a maul PER chest. in even more simpler terms there is a PERCENT within the chests.

so if you have 5,000 chests thats a 20.66% chance to loot a maul ONLY if you have 5,000 total chests. There’s your math.

Disproof wasn’t that off after all.


Ps. IF YOU WANT A GUARANTEED MAUL YOU’LL NEED 25,000 chests (obviously you don’t need this many to loot 1 maul. 5-10k should be enough but if you truly want to make sure you get 1, you need 25,000 of them.)


which is 250,000,000 gold to buy or if you farm, you can probably loot 5-10k a year of these if you got 65% +luck on your char and you farm for hours straight.(rogue/mage will be best suited) in my opinion. You’re welcome.




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[Warriorknown]

Good to know everyone is an expert in math on here....

[QuaseT]

Good to know everyone is an expert in math on here....You dont need to be an expert in maths to know basic probability calculation... but i get ur point. In the end its just luck, you can make profit or not.

[Oakmaiden]

So.. how about one of you pick some lottery numbers for me XD

[InsanitrisesAL]

Very intresting thread guys