Chance of drop arcane fields

[CapsLocky]

I'm puto there are players who've already drugged 4 5 items playing only in the morning, I'm only sleeping 5 hours a day playing all day the game hasn't given me even a helm yet, fix this

Enviado de meu Redmi Note 7 usando o Tapatalk

[Argoub]

RNG ..

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[Jtflorencio]

whoever drops 1 drops 5 and who drops 0 continues like this, and lv low accounts are dropping, I know a lot of people lv 66 who under 50 run got an arcane item and I with almost 200 nothing ....

[Analytical]

Bud, doest matter how many hours of sleep you have tho I'm empatizing with your frustration given your hard work in the event.
Legit got tired of seeing ppl complaining how "lucky" others are at looting sunken armors and they loot 0 arcanes.

If this describes you, read on!

Below is a simple but detailed explanation on why u should keep running if you haven't looted any arcane drops.

So here's what you need to know before you we go further about looting an arcane drop:
"All arcane loots have a relatively fixed drop rate, just like every other drop in the lootable that's designed by the dev."
(Tips: You can track your number of runs using total energies spent and estimate your arcanes drop rate. The more runs you do, the more conclusive or accurate you will be on the arcane drop rate)

For simplicity, let's say the arcane drop rate fixed by dev is 0.3% or 3/1000 runs. That means you are 100% guaranteed to get 3 arcane drops if you run 1000 times.

Now, the question is on which run will you get the 3 arcanes?

If the arcane drop rate is 0.3%, you can get an arcane either on your 1st run, 2nd run, 5th run, 67th run, 157th run, 221th run, 341th run, etc etc, you get the point, it's just randomly picking which run you will loot an arcane.

If you are "lucky", you get the arcane EARLY in your first few runs. For example, on your 1st run/5th run etc.
If you are "unlucky", you get it LATER in your runs. For example, on your 500th+ runs or even to the extent of on the 997th runs, 998th runs and 999th runs.

Now, if you successfully roll an arcane on Xth run (regardless of whether the drop is an arcane armor, helm or belt for all three classes or any of the two arcane recipes), you have "1/total arcanes" chance to loot the arcane YOU LIKE, which in this case is "1/11" or 0.09% which is the meaning behind what people typically quote as Random Number Generator/RNG.

In short if you wanna loot sunken armor, assuming the arcane drop rate is 0.3%, you will have a "0.3% X 1/11" chance to get it. Which is what people in general call as "lucky".

To be fair, "Lucky" really doesn tell you anything about
1.WHICH RUN you will get an arcane (totally random) or
2. HOW MANY RUNS you need to run to get at least one arcane (arcane drop rate).

So what now?

Keep running to make up the numbers! It has only been 3 days, event is 2 weeks!

[Jdfoda]

1+............ is so stupid this

[GucciBang]

I didn't drop 5 sunken armor I'm so sad :blue::blue::blue::blue:

[Ummmmm]

It is pure luck, as in every event. I spent about 30 hours on the eggzavier event, mostly with elixir, and best thing I got the whole time was a bejan egg, even though I saw about 5 zhulong drops. This event, I have now looted 2 sunken armors in 60 runs. You can have crappy luck or insane luck, there is no way to change that.

[Jtflorencio]

It is pure luck, as in every event. I spent about 30 hours on the eggzavier event, mostly with elixir, and best thing I got the whole time was a bejan egg, even though I saw about 5 zhulong drops. This event, I have now looted 2 sunken armors in 60 runs. You can have crappy luck or insane luck, there is no way to change that.

The ridiculous thing is that whoever drops 1 drops 5 and who drops 0 drops 0

[wraithmourne]

I'm puto there are players who've already drugged 4 5 items playing only in the morning, I'm only sleeping 5 hours a day playing all day the game hasn't given me even a helm yet, fix this

Enviado de meu Redmi Note 7 usando o TapatalkLooted arcane item already, try using luck bro

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[latigressa]

agreed.

n then , there are players who keep telling me to stop to using hisha.

lol

im xxbx. what wrong ima using hisha or others lucky pet

[wraithmourne]

agreed.

n then , there are players who keep telling me to stop to using hisha.

lol

im xxbx. what wrong ima using hisha or others lucky petI use arcanite aba with hisha aa to loot it...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200824/413a9850617d1d0aa5e35ae8ac6a4c1e.jpg

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[Ebereasider]

there are players who've already drugged 4 5 items playing only in the morning

Don't do drugs kids, specially not in the morning :topsy_turvy:

[HeartBreaker]

400 runs rip no loot [emoji24]

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[profmsb]

i feel u bro/sis...the problem is with the so call RNG(random numerical generator)...it can broke the game as some player can loot more than 10 arc gear(highest one that i heard of so far,eventho its just few day of event..rip) while some may get one or none despite the same or even more run n effort put on...

idk how RNG work..it just my guess n theory that,when certain condition meet(certain value of luck,high or low/type of pet n its hb n aa/timing of using the aa or luck buff/etc) it will generate that plyer acc/ign to get the loot.....so,if certain player accidentally found out the condition and keep farming using that same style..mybe that how some loot too much..while some not at all...if this true..it will be exploit...so,can make the game broken...

if that all wrong,pardon me....whatever it is or even if i rarely loot good in almost all event,still...i enjoy the game...n gonna kept playing this...tysm

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[wraithmourne]

i feel u bro/sis...the problem is with the so call RNG(random numerical generator)...it can broke the game as some player can loot more than 10 arc gear(highest one that i heard of so far,eventho its just few day of event..rip) while some may get one or none despite the same or even more run n effort put on...

idk how RNG work..it just my guess n theory that,when certain condition meet(certain value of luck,high or low/type of pet n its hb n aa/timing of using the aa or luck buff/etc) it will generate that plyer acc/ign to get the loot.....so,if certain player accidentally found out the condition and keep farming using that same style..mybe that how some loot too much..while some not at all...if this true..it will be exploit...so,can make the game broken...

if that all wrong,pardon me....whatever it is or even if i rarely loot good in almost all event,still...i enjoy the game...n gonna kept playing this...tysm

Sent from my TA-1032 using Tapatalk-1 its sound like you want everyone to win the arcane item, what would u think if everyone wins it?....^^^^inflation^^^^

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[profmsb]

-1 its sound like you want everyone to win the arcane item, what would u think if everyone wins it?....^^^^inflation^^^^

Sent from my XT1635-02 using Tapatalklol..read carefully..that not what i mean...if one loot too many..it gonna caused exploitation...i mean,if 1 person loot more than 10 arc....sorry if i offense those that loot that many..what i mean is..if no moderation,exploitation n inflation n broken would happen..ty

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[avaunt]

-1 its sound like you want everyone to win the arcane item, what would u think if everyone wins it?....^^^^inflation^^^^

Sent from my XT1635-02 using Tapatalk this event will not cause inflation as it won't increase the gold in the game. If someone looted an arc, someone else purchase it with their own gold, and after they sold the arc item, They use it to buy smth they need with the gold ( no gold added to the game by these arc drops )

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[wraithmourne]

this event will not cause inflation as it won't increase the gold in the game. If someone looted an arc, someone else purchase it with their own gold, and after they sold the arc item, They use it to buy smth they need with the gold ( no gold added to the game by these arc drops )

Sent from my CPH2083 using TapatalkThw event wont but letting too many players loort arcane item will do...

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[Boneybro]

Thw event wont but letting too many players loort arcane item will do...

Sent from my XT1635-02 using TapatalkWell you probably dont understand inflation inflation happens when there is too much gold

So if someone loots arcanes he sells them in auction or towns
If he sells in auction the tax required is lost so gold is reduced which actually doesnt cause inflation but the farmers chests directly give out pure gold which is the main reason causing inflation

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[wraithmourne]

Well you probably dont understand inflation inflation happens when there is too much gold

So if someone loots arcanes he sells them in auction or towns
If he sells in auction the tax required is lost so gold is reduced which actually doesnt cause inflation but the farmers chests directly give out pure gold which is the main reason causing inflation

Sent from my Redmi 6 Pro using TapatalkYOU Don`t understand inflation,

Why? The more ppl loots arcane, the more gold is released to the ppl.

Remember items can serve as currency....for barter / auc.

Now explain to me how it doesnt affect game’s economy?

Go to school....

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[Boneybro]

YOU Don`t understand inflation,

Why? The more ppl loots arcane, the more gold is released to the ppl.

Remember items can serve as currency....for barter / auc.

Now explain to me how it doesnt affect game’s economy?

Go to school....

Sent from my XT1635-02 using Tapatalk[emoji25]

Sent from my Redmi 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[Boneybro]

YOU Don`t understand inflation,

Why? The more ppl loots arcane, the more gold is released to the ppl.

Remember items can serve as currency....for barter / auc.

Now explain to me how it doesnt affect game’s economy?

Go to school....

Sent from my XT1635-02 using TapatalkLemme give a simple example

Consider a system which consists of 10k currency and 25 items with each item worth 400 currency
In a period of time the amount of item increases from 25 to 40 but the currency remains same
So the new cost of item will obviously become reduced to 250 currency , which results in a deflation

I think it is pretty clear now that which one of us needs to go to school

Peace out [emoji846]

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[Encryptions]

YOU Don`t understand inflation,

Why? The more ppl loots arcane, the more gold is released to the ppl.

Remember items can serve as currency....for barter / auc.

Now explain to me how it doesnt affect game’s economy?

Go to school....

Sent from my XT1635-02 using Tapatalk

Wrong..... More arcanes = deflation... Explain how looting an arcane item gives a person gold. Ofc if they sell it in the auction or to another player but that is not adding gold into the game. That is trading gold with another player when they buy an item. Deflation would happen because supply would soon out beat demand making the arcanes drop.
How will supply out beat demand you ask? Everyone who wants the vest will obtain it and have no use for an extra one. So people who loot the vests get less buyers meaning they will sell cheaper and cheaper until it is sold.
You want inflation go look at pirate booty event- as it directly added 200billion+ gold into the game. Pure gold looted from the map.

[wraithmourne]

Wrong..... More arcanes = deflation... Explain how looting an arcane item gives a person gold. Ofc if they sell it in the auction or to another player but that is not adding gold into the game. That is trading gold with another player when they buy an item. Deflation would happen because supply would soon out beat demand making the arcanes drop.
How will supply out beat demand you ask? Everyone who wants the vest will obtain it and have no use for an extra one. So people who loot the vests get less buyers meaning they will sell cheaper and cheaper until it is sold.
You want inflation go look at pirate booty event- as it directly added 200billion+ gold into the game. Pure gold looted from the map.no you dont understand either, how if the ones with money loots it?...and use it for himself? they won't need to buy another....affects purchasing power....


the purchasing side will be affected for they wont need to spend more money.....and how if the player loots another then sells it?...

like me i looted 2 arcane in these event already..

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[Encryptions]

no you dont understand either, how if the ones with money loots it?...and use it for himself? they won't need to buy another....affects purchasing power....


the purchasing side will be affected for they wont need to spend more money.....and how if the player loots another then sells it?...

like me i looted 2 arcane in these event already..

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Explain how this causes inflation.

[wraithmourne]

Explain how this causes inflation.oh sorry, i got everything mixed up XD SORRY MY BAD[emoji23]

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[Fleonakda]

Definitely needs an improvement. 100s of runs with no arc drops but some players looting multiple arcs with fewer runs means that whatever algorithm being used isn't really a good one.

[Silly Lily]

The items are arcane. Therefore they are meant to be very rare to loot. Also this game is full of RNG. Sometimes its in your favor, and sometimes its not. Its just the risk you take when you devote your time into farming anything in this game. You never really know what you will loot or if you'll even loot anything good. Its just up to you to decide if its worth the risk and time.

[Fleonakda]

The items are arcane. Therefore they are meant to be very rare to loot. Also this game is full of RNG. Sometimes its in your favor, and sometimes its not. Its just the risk you take when you devote your time into farming anything in this game. You never really know what you will loot or if you'll even loot anything good. Its just up to you to decide if its worth the risk and time.

Time & effort being a requirement is fair enough. However, that shouldn't be an excuse for not improving balance in the game. Going through say 500 runs for looting an arc item is fine as long it's the same for everyone. Some people looting arc items over & over in a span of few runs while others getting nothing despite hundreds of runs simply means that the algorithm is not well designed. There's always scope for improvement but it's up to the devs to decide if THEY want to put in the time & effort to make the gaming experience more balanced (or leave it as it is like a gambling game, which'd be a shame for such a good game).

[Izfura08]

do you think re-roll would help?
or luck stacks?

[Stephencobear]

For simplicity, let's say the arcane drop rate fixed by dev is 0.3% or 3/1000 runs. That means you are 100% guaranteed to get 3 arcane drops if you run 1000 times.


Untrue

Rng= you are not guaranteed

[Analytical]

Untrue

Rng= you are not guaranteed

I believe you mixed up another meaning for RNG with event loot i.e. the amount of gold drop from evg boss. The amount of gold is determined by a random number generator that generates from say 1k to 5k base gold. For simplicity we may omit the drop rate of the type/amount of gold drop. (However to be more precise, RNG here may imply the chance of getting (same meaning as drop rate) 1k base gold is assumed to be the same as the chance of getting 5k base gold --- although I kinda doubt it is purely RNG but more of drop rate x RNG. Drop rate being higher for 1k base gold drop and lower for 5k base gold drop, most common for say 2k-3k base gold drop)

NOTE: Not sure if you read the whole explanation, here's the paragraph I mentioned about RNG:




Now, if you successfully roll an arcane on Xth run (regardless of whether the drop is an arcane armor, helm or belt for all three classes or any of the two arcane recipes), you have "1/total arcanes" chance to loot the arcane YOU LIKE, which in this case is "1/11" or 0.09% which is the meaning behind what people typically quote as Random Number Generator/RNG.



For event loots and lock crates loots, RNG works a little differently, not as simple as evg boss gold drops, simply because they definitely have another thing we call drop rate. Drop rate essentially means regardless of how low the % could be, you will have a chance to loot that item, therefore it is included in the lootable.

Now to your questions/remarks:
1. Study your math before you comment. What I meant by guaranteed is a direct translation from mathematical terms likes percentages %, not an opinion of mine. Given a particular drop rate for an arcane item, regardless what % is (could be 0.002%, 0.005% etc), you are guaranteed to loot the arcane after a set amount of times. This applies to both event loot or lock crates loot. Very basic math ---- drop rate of 0.002% is the same as saying 1/500 times.

2. RNG DOES NOT EQUAL Drop rate. If it does, the market would have already been flooded with arcane's like it is common stuff.
In this context and pragmatically speaking, RNG is essentially: Given a particular drop rate, say, chance of looting an arcane from lock crates is 0.002%(1/500), then RNG will determine the TYPE of arcane you got depending on how many arcanes are in the lootable. If they are 10 arcanes types (eggs, gears etc) RNG basically means you will randomly roll one type out of them(RNG probability = 1/500 x 1/10 = 0.2%)

P.S. this is a 1 year old thread. Don't have to quote me on an old thread.

[Stephencobear]

Imagine using a wall of text and insult to defend a simple gamblers fallacy

[Analytical]

Imagine using a wall of text and insult to defend a simple gamblers fallacy

Truly entertaining to read comments on forum from people who can't speak with simple logic but jargons and fancy terms.

First you speak of a math that you know shet about. Now you talk about gambler's fallacy when I said nothing about "believing that you will loot an arcane after seeing people looting and mistakenly thinking that your odds of getting it may have gotten higher or at least equivalent" but everything about the legitimacy, mechanism of a set probability for looting any arcane item whether it's from an event loot or lock crates.

What more? You gonna say this game is for losers?

[QuaseT]

Ah yes probability calculation; a topic 10% of students understand in school and 99% do not.

[Nocturnus]

I believe you mixed up another meaning for RNG with event loot i.e. the amount of gold drop from evg boss. The amount of gold is determined by a random number generator that generates from say 1k to 5k base gold. For simplicity we may omit the drop rate of the type/amount of gold drop. (However to be more precise, RNG here may imply the chance of getting (same meaning as drop rate) 1k base gold is assumed to be the same as the chance of getting 5k base gold --- although I kinda doubt it is purely RNG but more of drop rate x RNG. Drop rate being higher for 1k base gold drop and lower for 5k base gold drop, most common for say 2k-3k base gold drop)

NOTE: Not sure if you read the whole explanation, here's the paragraph I mentioned about RNG:



For event loots and lock crates loots, RNG works a little differently, not as simple as evg boss gold drops, simply because they definitely have another thing we call drop rate. Drop rate essentially means regardless of how low the % could be, you will have a chance to loot that item, therefore it is included in the lootable.

Now to your questions/remarks:
1. Study your math before you comment. What I meant by guaranteed is a direct translation from mathematical terms likes percentages %, not an opinion of mine. Given a particular drop rate for an arcane item, regardless what % is (could be 0.002%, 0.005% etc), you are guaranteed to loot the arcane after a set amount of times. This applies to both event loot or lock crates loot. Very basic math ---- drop rate of 0.002% is the same as saying 1/500 times.

2. RNG DOES NOT EQUAL Drop rate. If it does, the market would have already been flooded with arcane's like it is common stuff.
In this context and pragmatically speaking, RNG is essentially: Given a particular drop rate, say, chance of looting an arcane from lock crates is 0.002%(1/500), then RNG will determine the TYPE of arcane you got depending on how many arcanes are in the lootable. If they are 10 arcanes types (eggs, gears etc) RNG basically means you will randomly roll one type out of them(RNG probability = 1/500 x 1/10 = 0.2%)

P.S. this is a 1 year old thread. Don't have to quote me on an old thread.

false x2. Dropping something arcane is not guaranteed.

Pd: if you are such a good mathematician, what are you doing here teaching?

[Analytical]

false x2. Dropping something arcane is not guaranteed.

Pd: if you are such a good mathematician, what are you doing here teaching?

Read before you spit your crap.

I said nothing about a guaranteed drop of arcane, (that's same as saying 100% drop rate of arcane), instead I said out of a said number of times, you are definitely getting an arcane ( X %). That's the most basic definition of drop rate. It could take as far as 1,000 or even 10,000 times before you are gonna get one arcane. As long as the drop rate is not 0%, you are gonna get an arcane, just a question of when and which run/roll.

Simply put:
The possibility of Dropping an arcane = Drop rate of arcane. That possibility can be high or low. Regardless, it is a percentage. Of course if it is not possible at all to get an arcane, it means it is not included in the event lootable by the developer. Then there's no point to talk about this at all because it means the drop rate is 0%.

Now, assuming your math sucks, I hope your logic is still with you, hopefully this is simple enough for you to understand:
Let's say the drop rate of arcane is 1% = 1/100, that simply means out of 100 times/runs/rolls/etc, you would definitely get at least one arcane.

[Nocturnus]

Read before you spit your crap.

I said nothing about a guaranteed drop of arcane, (that's same as saying 100% drop rate of arcane), instead I said out of a said number of times, you are definitely getting an arcane ( X %). That's the most basic definition of drop rate. It could take as far as 1,000 or even 10,000 times before you are gonna get one arcane. As long as the drop rate is not 0%, you are gonna get an arcane, just a question of when and which run/roll.

Simply put:
The possibility of Dropping an arcane = Drop rate of arcane. That possibility can be high or low. Regardless, it is a percentage. Of course if it is not possible at all to get an arcane, it means it is not included in the event lootable by the developer. Then there's no point to talk about this at all because it means the drop rate is 0%.

Now, assuming your math sucks, I hope your logic is still with you, hopefully this is simple enough for you to understand:
Let's say the drop rate of arcane is 1% = 1/100, that simply means out of 100 times/runs/rolls/etc, you would definitely get at least one arcane.

You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability, it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game, not in a particular player. that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs. And if you read the whole mess of words that you say, you will see that you yourself are saying that you are guaranteed to drop an arcane, which is false. 1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.

[Kystone]

It’s a 1/500th chance to loot it each run lol, it won’t be 2/500 after 1 run

[Analytical]

You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability, it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game, not in a particular player. that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs. And if you read the whole mess of words that you say, you will see that you yourself are saying that you are guaranteed to drop an arcane, which is false. 1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.

Do you even know what probability is?

The probability of getting a "6" out of a dice is 1/6, this means if I throw the dice 6000 times, there's a very very high chance that 1000 times out of the 6000 times I will get a "6". The more times you do it, the closer is the probability to 1/6. This is why I mentioned to get an accurate estimate of arcane drop rate, you need to run at least 500-1000 times to know what is your drop rate. But even if you don't, the math still stand.


You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability

It’s a 1/500th chance to loot it each run lol, it won’t be 2/500 after 1 run

Of course you would always have the same probability, for e.g if the probability is 1/500, then for each event map you go into, you go in with this probability. What I'm describing here is the meaning of 1/500. It means if you actually run 500 times, there's one time you are getting an arcane. I don't know which run specifically you will get it but I know if you did 500 runs, you surely will get one. The probability is unaffected by the number of runs you do, it only proves itself to be right. Like you can use backward logic - how do you get the probability of 1/500 in the first place? You may have experimented it yourself and with a group of others for example, all doing at least 1000 times then on average the drop rate of arcane was found to approximate to 1/500 runs.


it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game

This is when you start to mumble stuff you know nothing about. Dont use the word random like you know what you are talking about. Enough jargons.
"Random" = no percentage % is involved or more precisely it means the chance of looting arcane is the same as the chance of looting common. How does one confirm this? Simple: You can't put numbers on a random number generator without setting one most crucial condition : each number must have equal chances to be selected. But this is not the case for event loots as there are different rarity of items from common, rare, epic, legendary, mythic all the way to arcane and vanities. Each of this rarity DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME DROP RATE. THAT'S WHY ITS Not JUST RNG. I mentioned its not as simple as evg boss gold drop.


that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs

.......Now you talk about gambler's fallacy when I said nothing about "believing that you will loot an arcane after seeing people looting and mistakenly thinking that your odds of getting it may have gotten higher or at least equivalent" ......

The guy that drops 10 arcanes is not the way you think it is. This is exactly what gambler's fallacy is - see the above reply to stephen. His drop rate is still the same as the rest of the players not higher not lower not "random" either. He may get 10 arcanes because he's "lucky" enough to have his arcane on his EARLY runs and he will very likely not loot anything after that, you can't defy probability. It will always come back to you to make up the math. And I'm not gonna go as exaggerating as 10 arcane, but 5 arcanes. Now If you loot say 5 arcanes in your 1st, 5th, 30th, 120th, 230th runs, then for the remainding 770 runs (assuming the probability is 5/1000, so 1000 minus 230 =770) you will not get another arcane. (I already explained in great detail in my very first post for this thread)


1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.

Each player regardless of where you are from, as long as you are doing the runs, you will be administered with the exact same probability that everyone else gets. No one gets a higher probability than the others. Some may falsely appear to be luckier than others simply because they got arcanes in their EARLY RUNS and they can choose to stop running and "escape" from probability. Which I think largely explains why in almost every event i play, i always loot something valuable (at least one good loot) - what i did was to run only a few times in a day and i never grind for 10 hours straight for example because this will make the loot approximate to the true value of probability. If I actually do this on a daily basis for a few runs, I'm essentially allowing myself to loot an arcane in my early runs. Because i basically "reset" it by doing it. However then again, no one can really escape from probability, if I do too many times in total, it will still approximate to the true probability.

[Nocturnus]

Do you even know what probability is?

The probability of getting a "6" out of a dice is 1/6, this means if I throw the dice 6000 times, there's a very very high chance that 1000 times out of the 6000 times I will get a "6". The more times you do it, the closer is the probability to 1/6. This is why I mentioned to get an accurate estimate of arcane drop rate, you need to run at least 500-1000 times to know what is your drop rate. But even if you don't, the math still stand.




Of course you would always have the same probability, for e.g if the probability is 1/500, then for each event map you go into, you go in with this probability. What I'm describing here is the meaning of 1/500. It means if you actually run 500 times, there's one time you are getting an arcane. I don't know which run specifically you will get it but I know if you did 500 runs, you surely will get one. The probability is unaffected by the number of runs you do, it only proves itself to be right. Like you can use backward logic - how do you get the probability of 1/500 in the first place? You may have experimented it yourself and with a group of others for example, all doing at least 1000 times then on average the drop rate of arcane was found to approximate to 1/500 runs.



This is when you start to mumble stuff you know nothing about. Dont use the word random like you know what you are talking about. Enough jargons.
"Random" = no percentage % is involved or more precisely it means the chance of looting arcane is the same as the chance of looting common. How does one confirm this? Simple: You can't put numbers on a random number generator without setting one most crucial condition : each number must have equal chances to be selected. But this is not the case for event loots as there are different rarity of items from common, rare, epic, legendary, mythic all the way to arcane and vanities. Each of this rarity DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME DROP RATE. THAT'S WHY ITS Not JUST RNG. I mentioned its not as simple as evg boss gold drop.




The guy that drops 10 arcanes is not the way you think it is. This is exactly what gambler's fallacy is - see the above reply to stephen. His drop rate is still the same as the rest of the players not higher not lower not "random" either. He may get 10 arcanes because he's "lucky" enough to have his arcane on his EARLY runs and he will very likely not loot anything after that, you can't defy probability. It will always come back to you to make up the math. And I'm not gonna go as exaggerating as 10 arcane, but 5 arcanes. Now If you loot say 5 arcanes in your 1st, 5th, 30th, 120th, 230th runs, then for the remainding 770 runs (assuming the probability is 5/1000, so 1000 minus 230 =770) you will not get another arcane. (I already explained in great detail in my very first post for this thread)



Each player regardless of where you are from, as long as you are doing the runs, you will be administered with the exact same probability that everyone else gets. No one gets a higher probability than the others. Some may falsely appear to be luckier than others simply because they got arcanes in their EARLY RUNS and they can choose to stop running and "escape" from probability. Which I think largely explains why in almost every event i play, i always loot something valuable (at least one good loot) - what i did was to run only a few times in a day and i never grind for 10 hours straight for example because this will make the loot approximate to the true value of probability. If I actually do this on a daily basis for a few runs, I'm essentially allowing myself to loot an arcane in my early runs. Because i basically "reset" it by doing it. However then again, no one can really escape from probability, if I do too many times in total, it will still approximate to the true probability.

It is not a dice game, and you are not the only one playing the game. Following your example, assuming you have 1 arcane in 500 players, 1 player will get 1 arcane and 499 nothing, it will be 1 arcane in 500 runs. If you would be only playing the game, obviously in x amount of runs at some point you will get it. one arcane is guaranteed in the game not per player. And it's simple to check, you usually have hundreds of players running in the event at the beginning of the event, so it's easier to see that people drop rare items, but as soon as people leave the game in the middle of the event, because they get bored or drops little, or gets tired, the drop begins to drop and it is no longer common to see people drop things.

PS: you started talking about rng, anyway these types of games use that system, but it is not as simple as rolling the dice, it is underestimating the work of the devs.

[Analytical]

It is not a dice game

Stop misinterpreting what I said, a dice is a simple analogy to explain probability. Regardless of what example I used, the probability definition is still the same. Doesnt matter what game or context we are talking about, probability of gettting a jackpot, meeting your beloved in a certain sample of population, being robed on a broad daylight etc etc. Please actually digest what is said before you even reply. I'm not sure if this is too much for you to grasp.


Following your example, assuming you have 1 arcane in 500 players, 1 player will get 1 arcane and 499 nothing, it will be 1 arcane in 500 runs.
This is where the flawed logic is. If I employ your logic it means this = if the game only has one player, that player is gonna get all the arcanes drops that are available, nullifying all the drop rate and probability we have talked about. Unless dev indeed fix a certain/specific number of arcanes available/per day, then once that number is reached, no one will ever loot an arcane, then your logic of using the number of players as the base makes a bit of sense. However, if you think about it, dev can't fix the number of arcanes/daily because dev cannot predict when ppl from different time zones will play the game. So if say in the US timezone, ppl already looted all the available arcanes, then ppl say from the indonesia timezone will not get anything at all for that particular day. it is just not fair and practical for dev to fix the amount of lootable arcanes per day.


And it's simple to check, you usually have hundreds of players running in the event at the beginning of the event, so it's easier to see that people drop rare items, but as soon as people leave the game in the middle of the event, because they get bored or drops little, or gets tired, the drop begins to drop and it is no longer common to see people drop things.
A totally invalid statement, of course when you have less players in the game, less total runs is being done = obviously less arcane loots. It does not disprove anything,


PS: you started talking about rng, anyway these types of games use that system, but it is not as simple as rolling the dice, it is underestimating the work of the devs.
From here i know you only read the first paragraph and did not even read what i said about RNG/Random etc. I did not equate this whole mechanism to the dice, dice is the simplest and accurate way to understand what probability is. I already mentioned it is not just RNG but the combination of Drop rate x RNG.

[Analytical]

It’s a 1/500th chance to loot it each run lol, it won’t be 2/500 after 1 run

Following the logic mentioned here it means that after 500 runs , the probability becomes 500/500 after 500 runs. No this is not even close to what was said earlier.
If anything it just tells me you don't know what a probability is.

Regardless of how many runs you do, the probability is still 1/500. If each run your chance is 1/500, then yes every run your chance remains the same. Of course we know this, now the question is when am i getting this chance 1/500 chance? it can be anywhere from the 1st run to the 500th run for you to get that arcane to justify your probability of 1/500. Simply put: After 500 runs you get 1 arcane = 1/500 chance.

[Stephencobear]

Truly entertaining to read comments on forum from people who can't speak with simple logic but jargons and fancy terms.

First you speak of a math that you know shet about. Now you talk about gambler's fallacy when I said nothing about "believing that you will loot an arcane after seeing people looting and mistakenly thinking that your odds of getting it may have gotten higher or at least equivalent" but everything about the legitimacy, mechanism of a set probability for looting any arcane item whether it's from an event loot or lock crates.

What more? You gonna say this game is for losers?

I have no idea what you are quoting but that’s not the definition of gamblers fallacy, nor what I thought

I objected to the word “guarantee” with regards to the chance

Lol

[Kystone]

Following the logic mentioned here it means that after 500 runs , the probability becomes 500/500 after 500 runs. No this is not even close to what was said earlier.
If anything it just tells me you don't know what a probability is.

Regardless of how many runs you do, the probability is still 1/500. If each run your chance is 1/500, then yes every run your chance remains the same. Of course we know this, now the question is when am i getting this chance 1/500 chance? it can be anywhere from the 1st run to the 500th run for you to get that arcane to justify your probability of 1/500. Simply put: After 500 runs you get 1 arcane = 1/500 chance.

Seems like what I said flew over your head. As stephen something said, it’s a chance not guaranteed

[Analytical]

Seems like what I said flew over your head. As stephen something said, it’s a chance not guaranteed

That's why I mentioned if you do it enough number of times, doesn't matter whether you are opening 1000 locks, throwing 1000 darts or running 1000 times, you would have approached the true probability. Approaching means it's almost guaranteed to get it. By almost guaranteed I mean to say 90% - 99% - 99.99% certainty (Read very carefully what I'm about to say next)

To illustrate in lay man terms:

Let's assume the true probability is 1/500

1. If you run 50,000 times = the "observed" probability is very very close to the "true" probability = up to 99.99%. Rounding it up allows me to say that if you do this many times, your probability is 100/50,000 or 1/500. This means I can say with 99.99% certainty that 100 loots out of 50,000 loots you got are all arcanes. In other words, it makes no difference to say that you are guaranteed to drop 100 arcanes after 50,000 runs.

2. If you run 5000 times, there's approximately a 99%+ chance that you will get arcane 10 times (same as saying 10/5000 or 1/500). This means that at least 9.9 out of 10 times when I say you are guaranteed to loot 10 arcanes out of 5000 runs, I'm correct 99% of the time.

3. If you run 500 times, then my confidence level would drop more. You get the point. There's now a 90% chance that you will get 1 arcane out of 500 runs. Or equivalently, when I say you would get 1 arcane out of 500 runs to any single player out there, chances are, I'm correct 90% of the time or 9/10 times of me saying it.

Do you guys now see why I said you are "guaranteed" to loot an arcane if you make up for the numbers(regardless of what's the minimum number required to loot one arcane)?

This, is exactly what probability is.

[Nocturnus]

That's why I mentioned if you do it enough number of times, doesn't matter whether you are opening 1000 locks, throwing 1000 darts or running 1000 times, you would have approached the true probability. Approaching means it's almost guaranteed to get it. By almost guaranteed I mean to say 90% - 99% - 99.99% certainty (Read very carefully what I'm about to say next)

To illustrate in lay man terms:

Let's assume the true probability is 1/500

1. If you run 50,000 times = the "observed" probability is very very close to the "true" probability = up to 99.99%. Rounding it up allows me to say that if you do this many times, your probability is 100/50,000 or 1/500. This means I can say with 99.99% certainty that 100 loots out of 50,000 loots you got are all arcanes. In other words, it makes no difference to say that you are guaranteed to drop 100 arcanes after 50,000 runs.

2. If you run 5000 times, there's approximately a 99%+ chance that you will get arcane 10 times (same as saying 10/5000 or 1/500). This means that at least 9.9 out of 10 times when I say you are guaranteed to loot 10 arcanes out of 5000 runs, I'm correct 99% of the time.

3. If you run 500 times, then my confidence level would drop more. You get the point. There's now a 90% chance that you will get 1 arcane out of 500 runs. Or equivalently, when I say you would get 1 arcane out of 500 runs to any single player out there, chances are, I'm correct 90% of the time or 9/10 times of me saying it.

Do you guys now see why I said you are "guaranteed" to loot an arcane if you make up for the numbers(regardless of what's the minimum number required to loot one arcane)?

This, is exactly what probability is.

if you run 50k times oh yeah that sounds very real ...

[Nocturnus]

I have no idea what you are quoting but that’s not the definition of gamblers fallacy, nor what I thought

I objected to the word “guarantee” with regards to the chance

Lol

totally agree, the guy thinks that by running more times his chances are going to increase. I did not know this concept, very interesting.

[Analytical]

totally agree, the guy thinks that by running more times his chances are going to increase. I did not know this concept, very interesting.

Selectively reading only what you want to read and now quoting me on things I did not say. I have done my best at explaining simple math but your small brain can't handle it.

Not even a single word I said about "by running more times it increases one's chances", don't be such an idiot. I repeatedly mention no amount of runs can change the set probability. The true probability will only manifest itself when a certain amount of runs have been achieved.

If you can't read and understand simple English no point talking logic to you, I recommend you stay away from forums that requires at least an organ called brain.

[Analytical]

if you run 50k times oh yeah that sounds very real ...

I honestly wonder if you are blind or just retarded?

Did you even read the 3rd point on 500 runs and 90% confidence?

Ohh wait I forgot you don't have a brain to begin with.

[Nocturnus]

Selectively reading only what you want to read and now quoting me on things I did not say. I have done my best at explaining simple math but your small brain can't handle it.

Not even a single word I said about "by running more times it increases one's chances", don't be such an idiot. I repeatedly mention no amount of runs can change the set probability. The true probability will only manifest itself when a certain amount of runs have been achieved.

If you can't read and understand simple English no point talking logic to you, I recommend you stay away from forums that requires at least an organ called brain.

A random event is more likely to occur if it did not happen recently, we think that we are better at calculating probabilities than we really are. the gambler's fallacy.

[Analytical]

A random event is more likely to occur if it did not happen recently, we think that we are better at calculating probabilities than we really are. the gambler's fallacy.

Not only do you not know how to talk simple logic, now you trying to cover up with jargons and technical terms you know sheet about. Worse still it is from another person. Sure if this makes you feel more secured go ahead, I would suggest you to resurrect Albert Einstein to support your claim, he is definitely your best bet since you don't have logic.

Well well anyway, thank you so so so much.

Very reluctantly but I have accepted the reality that in life there are people who just can't understand logic, I should not waste an ounce of my energy playing music in front of cows.

[QuaseT]

Some of you seem really interested in probability calculation. Bernoulli Chain & Bernoulli Distribution is the term you were looking for an finite reoccuring and static event. Law of large numbers and universal pareto distribution for 100 items in 50k runs. Conditional probability for why it seems that people who looted an arcane usually loot another (besides psychological aspects of motivation).
All resources online. I don't want to participate in convo. Firstly bc its an old thread and secondly; I might give wrong info as well. All I want to mention is that probabilty calculation cannot be explained well if you havent studied the topic intensively. The things you think are right on this level by intuition are usually very wrong.

[Analytical]

Some of you seem really interested in probability calculation. Bernoulli Chain & Bernoulli Distribution is the term you were looking for an finite reoccuring and static event. Law of large numbers and universal pareto distribution for 100 items in 50k runs. Conditional probability for why it seems that people who looted an arcane usually loot another (besides psychological aspects of motivation).
All resources online. I don't want to participate in convo. Firstly bc its an old thread and secondly; I might give wrong info as well. All I want to mention is that probabilty calculation cannot be explained well if you havent studied the topic intensively. The things you think are right on this level by intuition are usually very wrong.

Glad to read someone who can speak logic lol.

Always respected your comments qua because you have always been very constructive.

Personally I have taken advanced statistics and what I explained here is less than 5% of what I learned lol because I don't like to complicate stuff with jargons, it is just wasting my effort explaining this kind of stuff to people who barely knows about it, I usually try to speak as simple as possible without any fancy terms but well there are still people who can't understand.

[Nocturnus]

Glad to read someone who can speak logic lol.

Always respected your comments qua because you have always been very constructive.

Personally I have taken advanced statistics and what I explained here is less than 5% of what I learned lol because I don't like to complicate stuff with jargons, it is just wasting my effort explaining this kind of stuff to people who barely knows about it, I usually try to speak as simple as possible without any fancy terms but well there are still people who can't understand.

in advanced statistics they taught you to insult people when they disagree with you?