Odds to pul a mythic

[championboost]

Does anyone1 know what the odds are to pull a mythic weapon out of the locked crates
or arcane stuff out of other lockeds


is it 1%?








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[MasterSan]

Less than 1% I believe, even 200 pulls won't get u mythics.

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[Oawaoebi]

I know smb who got mythic weapon after 300 event crates.


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[Vulcainx]

If it was 1%, people would loot few per day xd
Definitely less than 1%

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[championboost]

[QUOTE=Vulcainx;3722536]If it was 1%, people would loot few per day xd
Definitely less than 1%

no u did ur math wrong if it was 1% u would need on average 30k tokens (300) chests to pull a mythic

[Analytical]

[QUOTE=Vulcainx;3722536]If it was 1%, people would loot few per day xd
Definitely less than 1%

no u did ur math wrong if it was 1% u would need on average 30k tokens (300) chests to pull a mythic

1% = 1/100 chance = once per 10,000 tokens

No idea where you got your numbers from.
And 30k tokens = 1/300 chance = 0.33%

[championboost]

[QUOTE=championboost;3722718]

1% = 1/100 chance = once per 10,000 tokens

No idea where you got your numbers from.
And 30k tokens = 1/300 chance = 0.33%I dont know why you act so smart lol
For you ill explain though
This is a 1 pull chest so 1/3 = 0.33%
this is first grade

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[Stephencobear]

240116
rng slaps probability

[AucResearcher]

The rate is 0.000000001% divide by 100000000

[Vulcainx]

[QUOTE=championboost;3722718]

1% = 1/100 chance = once per 10,000 tokens

No idea where you got your numbers from.
And 30k tokens = 1/300 chance = 0.33%1% would be 1 mythic each 100 chests, and its very doable to farm hundreds of chests in a day.

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[Analytical]

[QUOTE=Analytical;3722727]1% would be 1 mythic each 100 chests, and its very doable to farm hundreds of chests in a day.

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Ye bro

Personally looted 1 mythic weapon in my first 100 opens, after that I opened another 200 didn't get any mythic. I'm thinking if I should run for another 20,000 - 30,000 tokens to estimate the drop rate :D

But got around 70 free plats in total tho
(30,000 tokens)

[Vulcainx]

[QUOTE=Vulcainx;3722823]

Ye bro

Personally looted 1 mythic weapon in my first 100 opens, after that I opened another 200 didn't get any mythic. I'm thinking if I should run for another 20,000 - 30,000 tokens to estimate the drop rate :D

But got around 70 free plats in total tho
(30,000 tokens)Ye the fact we can loot plats for free is a very nice idea from sts :)

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[QuaseT]

Oh boy, back to middle school maths

[Oakmaiden]

First day I got gold from the event crates, now just pinks, zzz done with this nonsense. During lock down, extra events were great. I rather have a week off than cramming mini games or reruns or any other underdone idea.

[Starkinea]

Well during mini events or major events you can choose not to participate and just run normal content.
Those mini events are a nice addition (especially with free crates) for hc toons to get a decent gears.
The chances to loot something op from free crates are obviously small and i think it's fair as it is.
Ppl always love to complain no matter what. Don't like it, don't run it... Simple as that

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[Analytical]

Well during mini events or major events you can choose not to participate and just run normal content.
Those mini events are a nice addition (especially with free crates) for hc toons to get a decent gears.
The chances to loot something op from free crates are obviously small and i think it's fair as it is.
Ppl always love to complain no matter what. Don't like it, don't run it... Simple as that

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Couldn't agree more, for the first time ever sts gives us a good opportunity for free opening of crates, used to be 1000 tokens per open now is only 100 tokens each.

People blame the RNG or the drop rate which is arguably same for "plat-open" crates, there are YouTube videos showing how unlucky one can be even with paid versions of it, guildmate even spent like 3000 plat and got trash. Yet there are others who opened less than 30 crates and looted something good. Also for this mini event heard someone looted both mythic weapons for mage and 1 swordfish aura only after 30,000 tokens.

Bottom lines is about knowing when to cut our losses, be it our time investment(f2p players) or money (plat players).

For now I think I will do casual runs not expecting anything(since I already pulled one mythic hehe), so I don't get frustrated xD

[ThreadPolice]

[QUOTE=Analytical;3722727]I dont know why you act so smart lol
For you ill explain though
This is a 1 pull chest so 1/3 = 0.33%
this is first grade

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Well 1/3 is 33% to be honest haha, you mean 1/300 [emoji854][emoji6]

I guess you got to return to first grade LOL


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[Verbie]

This isnt how ratios work.

Divide the items you want by how many items are in the crate.

For example 3 (items wanted) ÷135 (items in crate)=0.022

So for every one pull you have a .02% chance of getting the item you want.




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[Undershooting]

This isnt how ratios work.

Divide the items you want by how many items are in the crate.

For example 3 (items wanted) ÷135 (items in crate)=0.022

So for every one pull you have a .02% chance of getting the item you want.




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Well that would’ve worked if the chances of looting good stuff was as equal as trash items

[Undershooting]

Btw those saying there’s a certain amount of tokens which increased the probability of us looting mythic gears, here’s the video of me using 50k tokens and still ending up with nothing:

https://youtu.be/9xwWNZvu9AA

[Verbie]

Well that would’ve worked if the chances of looting good stuff was as equal as trash itemsGambling has never been about equal unless its 50:50.



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[Nocturnus]

Thread totally irrelevant.
Even if you knew the probability of getting something, it still wouldn't guarantee anything.
You just get more stressed over thinking about it.

[Verbie]

Thread totally irrelevant.
Even if you knew the probability of getting something, it still wouldn't guarantee anything.
You just get more stressed over thinking about it.Its true, but once you understand odds you can calculate risk.


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[Stephencobear]

Its true, but once you understand odds you can calculate risk.

And then rng takes a shart on all your maybes

[Nocturnus]

Its true, but once you understand odds you can calculate risk.


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There will always be risk. Even in the event with the highest drop rates, you might not drop anything interesting.
The more you think about those probabilities, the more expectations you will put, the greater the psychological blow.

[Ilove_Poopoo]

Well probability isn't guaranteed. Because if it was, then it isn't probability but rather some rigged system.

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[Verbie]

Well probability isn't guaranteed. Because if it was, then it isn't probability but rather some rigged system.

Sent from my SM-N975F using TapatalkThats why I referenced ratios instead of probability. Its not much different then a scratch off ticket.
Could you win? Possibly. But will you win big? Rarely.

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[Ilove_Poopoo]

Thats why I referenced ratios instead of probability. Its not much different then a scratch off ticket.
Could you win? Possibly. But will you win big? Rarely.

Sent from my SM-F926U using TapatalkRatios still fall under probability at the end. At least to what you mentioned at post#19

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[Analytical]

Btw those saying there’s a certain amount of tokens which increased the probability of us looting mythic gears, here’s the video of me using 50k tokens and still ending up with nothing:

https://youtu.be/9xwWNZvu9AA

Probability doesn't change, if it's set by dev at a certain rate, it stays as is, no matter how many tokens you spent.

That said, the reason why the probability may not appear to be as it says it is, is very much due to the fact that all possible loots or pulls from crates are infinite/unlimited (instantaneously generated) instead of already existing loot like you would expect from a spin of wheel "loot".

Meaning, even if the probability is say, 1/500 pulls, you can still not get a mythic even after 500 pulls

But you may ask

Why doesn't it follow the probability of 1/500?
Shouldn't we get 1 mythic after 500 pulls?

Before I answer that let's first convert that 1/500 into decimals = 0.2%

So 2/1000 still gives 0.2%,
Same with 3/1500, 4/2000, 5/2500 etc... you get the point.
Essentially, this means it is "possible" that you still won't loot a mythic even after 1000, 1500, 2000, 2500, .... or as far as 5000 number of pulls (or more).
Although very unlikely, because as your denominator (total pulls) increases, your probability would be simultaneously getting closer to the true value of 0.2%. The probability is still the same, its just that it takes greater number of pulls for it to approach the true value.

For Example:
Suppose it is 5/2500 pulls. (Of course hypothetically here, I'm trying to drive in this concept).

As bad & as unlucky as this already sound, what could be worse is for example, you getting 5 mythic on your 2500th pull, 2499th pull, 2498th pull 2497th pull, 2496th pull. Since it's random we don't know which pull you would get it, but we know out of 2500 pulls you would "most likely" get 5 good loots. Bear in mind that I use "most likely" here because the denominator "2500" is not fixed as mentioned before because the possible loots are not fixed (limited) but are instantaneously generated (unlimited) so instead of 5/2500 pulls it could even be 6/3000 pulls, 7/3500 pulls and so on... as long as the probability is the same.

This is why "it is not guaranteed" after X number of pulls regardless of how large X is
although
logically the chances of you for example blowing 200,000 plat on crates and not get a single mythic or single arcane or good vanity is extremely extremely extremely low.
Similarly if you spent 500,000 tokens (hypothetically of course) and still not get a single mythic is extremely unlikely.

Bottom line is the more crates you open, the closer it will approach to the true set value of probability.

We call people
1. LUCKY when they pull 1 mythic/arcane on their first pull &
2. UNLUCKY when they pull 1 good loot on their 999th pull.
(Which is what random or RNG means. You don't know which pull you will get except the probability of getting it)

[MasterSan]

Quick answers:
Every pull has its own probability, which resets on next pull, so the probability don't increase after each pull you make.
Therefore u can expect mythic Weapon on ur first pull or never.
Thats all there is ..according to my observation.
It can be 100% chance on next pull or 0% chance for mythic gears.
Also, the chance for legendary gears are higher than the chance for mythics..that's why they're most commonly dropped. It's just a game of chance, whose outcome is strongly influenced by some randomizing device.

It's just a gamble my friend.

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