Be careful what you wish for on drop rates

[vampinoy]

Now that rarity is increased in Monster Bash, let's see what the next wave of complaints will be, I'll predict:

"Pinks too expensive"

When crafting patch comes

"Pinks much more expensive"

Winners: Hoarders, Platinum farmers
Losers: Whiners and everyone else

We could have enjoyed the high drop rate longer...lower prices for non-plat population...platinum farmers were bringing in the good stuff by bringing down prices for an average joe, now not anymore...

Once again, the early birds beat everyone else by getting all the good stuff before the change (Volcanut deja vu, good job haters)

[McBain]

Wasn't the drop rate increased and not decreased?

[Ixillicus]

No it was nerfed in monster bash with today's patch

[vampinoy]

Yep, nerfed, thanks haters, job well done. I'm out of bash that's for sure, and I'm pretty sure a lot of my run mates will stop running there too. Congratz to early bird platinum farmers and hoarders, you guys will be filthy rich soon.

[Elyseon]

not a single one of us got a pink in that hour. Awesome.
That was me before the nerf I was already done with it
And btw they didn't nerf the purple drops so the with a shamus the rate should be about the same, unless ur me then it always sucks

[Windwaiker]

Poo, I was waiting for the pink prices to drop lol. Time to farm some more....

[McBain]

Oh, my bad. I missed that new patch. Oh well, I never played the plat map, but from what I've heard, it may have been a tad high

[Arsenal]

Yep, nerfed, thanks haters, job well done. I'm out of bash that's for sure, and I'm pretty sure a lot of my run mates will stop running there too. Congratz to early bird platinum farmers and hoarders, you guys will be filthy rich soon.

wah wah wah

[vampinoy]

wah wah wah

I'm actually one of them...chaching

[ThePvpTwink]

Guess players may pay less plat for farming in monster bash now...= pink price go up :(

[Windwaiker]

Maybe over the next month there will be more pinks and they'll be cheaper by then ... Hopefully...

[onemadzhau]

Lol I'm in both categories I'm whining cause I've spent almost 1000 plat on thrashers and got a couple lvl 68 pinks (not worth much)but its all about fun right ? Lol don't mind me ill whine elsewhere :)

[Bebsi]

Yep, well done fellow mates xD
I'll just use up my rest minutes, then I'm out of monster bash, too.
Due to the drop rate somebody is stashing all the lvl70 items.
With a monopol like that the prices will rise for sure ^_^

[plmafiaboss]

*logs in and clears cs of all humania pinks* muahahahah
/end taking advantage of todays prices

[drewcapu]

Don't worry.

Prices will plummet when L76 cap comes!

[Back]

^^ Then u won't buy L.70 pinks anyway..

Sent from my GT-S5360 using Tapatalk 2

[modredd]

I do not see who benefits from the drop rate being lowered in Bash.
I sold my pinks way below value,Now I will save my plat and keep my gold.
what ever,It worked for me.

[vampinoy]

I do not see who benefits from the drop rate being lowered in Bash.
I sold my pinks way below value,Now I will save my plat and keep my gold.
what ever,It worked for me.

Yea, I knew the drop rates would go down eventually, we can't have that much pink forever, or each pink would cost 1 gold in the long run. But I didn't expect it to be this early and we're still anticipating that prices will get a second wind when crafting comes and when people see that the bosses have been upgraded, plus the fact that these sets will have something "new" in it the dps and tank, and the visuals, anything new comes in high always. I thought that prices will dip low before the crafting items come, so that when it gets a second wind, it will still fall within manageable amounts, now, we're looking at base sets of islander, of humanity, and sun god worth 3.5m, 2.5m, and 8m respectively, that was before the drop rates went down today (that means those are its lowest rates, so if you're an investor, I suggest you buy them now)...so it should go up a little bit because of hoarding and increasing demand leading up to the crafting patch. This means that the starting point of the base sets' prices will be very high when the crafting patch arrives...if you will consider the rarity of the crafting materials, the upgraded boss battles, and rarity of the recipes which is historically high (or platinum for crafting), the design of the new set, the stats, speculation of next expansion (the longer it is, the more expensive current sets will be), etc....I mean, if you pad all those up to the base set prices (still increasing) you're looking at potentially ridiculous amounts in crafted/bonus sets maybe similar to demonic pricing during its peak. Remember, this campaign never had that super high drop rate where its Christmas pinks for everyone...it was only a few select running monster bash working for the entire community...so the supply is not that much...anyway, this is interesting, I'm looking forward to the pricing in next few days or weeks to come. I have a feeling that the prayers of those players who wanted the legendary to be really legendary...will be answered in the form of legendary prices.

[Pakax]

Admitedly, the drop rate was a tad too high in Bash. Not that I am complaining, as I farmed heavily, but I agree that this was slightly unbalanced. The drop rate now appears to be so low that it begs the question about the usefullnes sof bash and in particular, why people would still pay to get that access. With such a drop rate, it probably ought to be free like older 'vampire feast' maps no?

[Chopper]

Admitedly, the drop rate was a tad too high in Bash. Not that I am complaining, as I farmed heavily, but I agree that this was slightly unbalanced. The drop rate now appears to be so low that it begs the question about the usefullnes sof bash and in particular, why people would still pay to get that access. With such a drop rate, it probably ought to be free like older 'vampire feast' maps no?

yeah, bad timing for me, as i tried running Monster bash for the first time yesterday after the nerf and it was not worth it it seems. One pink however but several runs over an hour. I predict it will quickly become a wasteland.

[Whirlzap]

Not trying to be rude, but this is the way it SHOULD have been.
Platinum buyers shouldn't have such a huge prominent advantage over non-platinum users and I believe STS thinks that way.
I mean, right after drop rates got increased, where did over 30+ pinks come from within several hours?
Monster Bash spamming.
You guys ALREADY have such a big advantage with having all five bosses grouped up while we have to clear entire maps to get to one of them.
It's only fair this way.

I'm actually happy the pinks' rarity got increased.
Now you can actually make some sort of profit by selling the items.
This isn't the first time this has happened as we all know.

I'm pretty sure Glyph items and Mount Fang items both had some sort of rarity increase after the first few weeks.

[Back]

Glyph's rarity is too increased, don't you think? I'm afraid Humania will suffer the same fate.

Sent from my GT-S5360 using Tapatalk 2

[Zeus]

Read the patch notes very carefully, then read them again, then read them again. If you still don't get it, read it again.

Read what's not there; read what's in between the lines.

Good job on STS, extremely clever move.

[Drizzid]

I think its one of the stupidest things sts has done.

How did the meeting go for them to come to this conclusion. Not only did they make it pointless to farm bash but they keep it at 3 plat per run? This leads me to question decision making.

I really wish STS would stop catering to the ones who dont contribute and the whiners, chances are if you dont like something make a thread whining about it and it will be changed for you!

[Energizeric]

Glyph's rarity is too increased, don't you think? I'm afraid Humania will suffer the same fate.

I actually like the increased rarity of elite items. It makes having them more special. A nice glyph "set" costs around 1m. That is certainly obtainable for anyone who works hard for it. You don't have to be lucky.

After 4 months of playing PL, I managed to work hard enough at farming and selling off the items to be able to afford a Glyph Obedience Dagger/Wing Set. And I did not do it by getting lucky with expensive drops. In fact, I never got a single pink drop in the Sewers or in Nuri. I just farmed places like Plasma Pyramid and the Sewers, saved my gold, sold off the orange, green and purple sewer items, liquidated the AO items, and saved my gold. Eventually I had enough to buy my set.

Yes, I would have loved to have a Demonic set instead, but I never was able to as the price was way too high. But if the price had been much lower for Demonic and many more people had the Demonic sets, I probably wouldn't have wanted it so much. The reason everyone likes Demonic is because its so rare. If you walk around in a very nice pink set from Alien Oasis, nobody will say a word to you. If you walk around wearing Demonic, every other person PMs you saying "nice set". I want the Humania sets to stay that way.

If the end-game gear is too easy to obtain, then you have nothing to work towards anymore, and the game gets boring.

[WhoIsThis]

Read the patch notes very carefully, then read them again, then read them again. If you still don't get it, read it again.

Read what's not there; read what's in between the lines.

Good job on STS, extremely clever move.

Doesn't it confirm what was said in the OP?



Now, only O.C.D. helm will grant O.C.D. title.
CTF and DM stat's are now visible on the leaderboard!
Increased rarity of legendary items in paid Humania dungeon.
Emote Packs and Balloons are no longer on sale.
Players can now get the Bat Set Crazy achievement!



Then,



I'm sorry, this is not a bug. The initial drop rate was too low and the previous drop rate balance was too high. The price is static. It did not go up since Humania release, even though the new drop rate is higher than the initial Humania release, plus it includes epic gear. I hope you and your peers enjoy the new gear and improved balance!


Regardless, it may be time to reconsider whether or not to spend 3 plat per run. I remember during Christmas quite a few people were outspoken against a "carnival" style of charging per run - it seems to have become the norm.

[WhoIsThis]

If the end-game gear is too easy to obtain, then you have nothing to work towards anymore, and the game gets boring.

Only if PvE is your endgame. For PvP players, it's quite different. Getting to the elite level cap and getting good gear is little more than an obstacle for the main attraction of the game - PvP. In that sense, high drop rates are very desirable. In return for a fee of platinum, PvP players get the gear that they need and don't need to bother with PvE, which many PvPers don't want to spend their time on anyways.

[Energizeric]

Only if PvE is your endgame. For PvP players, it's quite different. Getting to the elite level cap and getting good gear is little more than an obstacle for the main attraction of the game - PvP. In that sense, high drop rates are very desirable. In return for a fee of platinum, PvP players get the gear that they need and don't need to bother with PvE, which many PvPers don't want to spend their time on anyways.

I understand that, but I quite often check how many PvP games are going at any one time, and it seems to me that PvP makes a very tiny percentage of the total Pocket Legends population. I've never seen more than 7 or 8 PvP games going at any one time, and sometimes there are none, where there are normally dozens of PvE games going at any one time.

I think even more people do Merching as their endgame than PvP.

[WhoIsThis]

I understand that, but I quite often check how many PvP games are going at any one time, and it seems to me that PvP makes a very tiny percentage of the total Pocket Legends population. I've never seen more than 7 or 8 PvP games going at any one time, and sometimes there are none, where there are normally dozens of PvE games going at any one time.

I think even more people do Merching as their endgame than PvP.

At each tier, yes. There's perhaps 5-15x more PvE than PvP. But that isn't what matters. What matters is the amount of plat spent per player. And in an F2P game, only a small percentage will spend a lot. PvPers make up a disproportionate amount of that minority. It's why the concerns of PvP are considered important by serious players.

[Swimmingstar]

Nope, everyone loses.

[Swimmingstar]

Read the patch notes very carefully, then read them again, then read them again. If you still don't get it, read it again.

Read what's not there; read what's in between the lines.

Good job on STS, extremely clever move.
Yep increased rarity, it doesn't mean drop rate but it means that the drop rate was lowered. And that's what the original post was talking about.

[Energizeric]

At each tier, yes. There's perhaps 5-15x more PvE than PvP. But that isn't what matters. What matters is the amount of plat spent per player. And in an F2P game, only a small percentage will spend a lot. PvPers make up a disproportionate amount of that minority. It's why the concerns of PvP are considered important by serious players.

Doesn't PvP become boring if every player has the same elite endgame gear?

Pocket Legends is a RPG. What makes it interesting is each player's individuality. If you want it to be like a chess game where everyone has the same exact pieces, then wouldn't you be better off playing an action fighting game and not a RPG?

[FluffNStuff]

Doesn't PvP become boring if every player has the same elite endgame gear?

Pocket Legends is a RPG. What makes it interesting is each player's individuality. If you want it to be like a chess game where everyone has the same exact pieces, then wouldn't you be better off playing an action fighting game and not a RPG?

Of course we want the drop rate to be lower for other people, we just want it to be higher for ourselves. DUH!!!

[Energizeric]

Of course we want the drop rate to be lower for other people, we just want it to be higher for ourselves. DUH!!!

Yes, of course! I think the developers should make this so in the next update!

[Zeus]

Yep increased rarity, it doesn't mean drop rate but it means that the drop rate was lowered. And that's what the original post was talking about.

Swim, how are most people getting their pinks? Re-rolls from purples. This hardly affects platinum users/shamus users, just makes life more difficult to those who don't spend platinum. I thought the lesson was learned with the volconut.

The rarity of purples was NEVER decreased.

[Zeus]

Now that rarity is increased in Monster Bash, let's see what the next wave of complaints will be, I'll predict:

"Pinks too expensive"

When crafting patch comes

"Pinks much more expensive"

Winners: Hoarders, Platinum farmers
Losers: Whiners and everyone else

We could have enjoyed the high drop rate longer...lower prices for non-plat population...platinum farmers were bringing in the good stuff by bringing down prices for an average joe, now not anymore...

Once again, the early birds beat everyone else by getting all the good stuff before the change (Volcanut deja vu, good job haters)

Bro, prices are still going to drop. There isn't much difference while running the maps.

[WhoIsThis]

Doesn't PvP become boring if every player has the same elite endgame gear?

Pocket Legends is a RPG. What makes it interesting is each player's individuality. If you want it to be like a chess game where everyone has the same exact pieces, then wouldn't you be better off playing an action fighting game and not a RPG?

Not at all. PvP should be about skill. Beating an undergeared player isn't really "win" per se. Beating a player with compared levelled gear though, particularly if they have plenty of prior PvP experience is something noteworthy.

Edit: That said, being able to successfully engage 2-3 undergeared players and emerge victorious is itself something worth doing. When the Lilith set was the endgame set for mages, I often fought players who did not have the set 1v2. I usually lost, but it's something quite worth doing.


On that note, judging by your post, you appear to be quite inexperienced at PvP in not just this MMO, but any MMO (assuming that you've played other MMOs with PvP). It is not like a chess game at all. How a player chooses their build, their equipment, and their tactics has very very important implications in their outcomes. Chess is perfectly equal. Builds matter in PvP and that changes everything. Plus there's the matter that certain classes excel at killing others and are weak against certain classes.


Of course we want the drop rate to be lower for other people, we just want it to be higher for ourselves. DUH!!!

I don't and if you are a player that values the skill of players you encounter, you shouldn't either in both PvP or PvE. Player skill > gear, regardless of PvP or PvE. Read what I just said to Energizeric.

[FluffNStuff]

Not at all. PvP should be about skill. Beating an undergeared player isn't really "win" per se.

On that note, judging by your post, you appear to be quite inexperienced at PvP. It is not like a chess game at all. How a player chooses their build, their equipment, and their tactics has very very important implications in their outcomes.

Agreed, in Twinking, if the other player does not have elite gear, it is like playing chess where one person only has pawns :)

[WhoIsThis]

Bro, prices are still going to drop. There isn't much difference while running the maps.

Absolute values of prices matters. A 50% drop in 1 month of say, 2 million is 1 million. A 50% drop of say, 500k is 250k. What would you rather save up for? 1 mil or 250k? The OP may get lucky or they may end up with no pinks and long runs. Either way, even if the OP is lucky, evidently parting with 250k for gear (assuming that they didn't get the desired item themselves via farming) is the preferred outcome, even if it means it's more accessible to others as well.

[The Flash]

Yep increased rarity, it doesn't mean drop rate but it means that the drop rate was lowered. And that's what the original post was talking about.

Swim, how are most people getting their pinks? Re-rolls from purples. This hardly affects platinum users/shamus users, just makes life more difficult to those who don't spend platinum. I thought the lesson was learned with the volconut.

The rarity of purples was NEVER decreased.

I dont know apollo I farmed for 70min in mash and was hoping to get 7 pinks thats one every 10min didnt get one in 70min of farming. :(

[Zeus]

I dont know apollo I farmed for 70min in mash and was hoping to get 7 pinks thats one every 10min didnt get one in 70min of farming. :(

Bro, you got 5 pinks last night in an hour, lol. :)

I got 4. :p

[Energizeric]

Bro, you got 5 pinks last night in an hour, lol. :)

I got 4. :p

You guys are lucky. I finally got some plat and did 8 thrasher runs through Monster Bash and did not get a single pink. I got about 8 purples though. And that was the night BEFORE the update.

[Whirlzap]

I dont know apollo I farmed for 70min in mash and was hoping to get 7 pinks thats one every 10min didnt get one in 70min of farming. :(

I don't think we got his post completely.
What Apollo is saying:


Swim, how are most people getting their pinks? Re-rolls from purples. This hardly affects platinum users/shamus users, just makes life more difficult to those who don't spend platinum. I thought the lesson was learned with the volconut.

The rarity of purples was NEVER decreased.

Break it down.
Here's what it is.
Most pinks are gotten FROM purples came out and dropped a lot more often.
Before this update, there WERE no purples, rendering luck elixirs and the FATAL 100% re-roll USELESS.
After purples came out, PLATINUM users were able to get so many pinks, not because of Monster Bash, but because PURPLES came out.
Since many were on 100% re-roll elixirs, the chance to get a purple is now their chance to get a pink.
And we all know how much easier it is to get a purple.

Right now, Platinum users have two ways of getting pinks.
1. Actually getting dropped a pink, which is a VERY VERY VERY low chance.
2. Getting a pink from re-rolling a purple, which is a pretty darn high drop rate.
And with 100% re-roll, they can now make all purples pinks.

What do non-Plat users play with?
No re-roll.

And now they decreased the drop rate for pinks.
While the purples' drop rate remained untouched.

Meaning the way of getting pinks to a non-Platinum user has became an all-time low.
The rate for the Platinum-users remains the same, only suffering such a tiny blow, since as I said before, most pinks come from re-rolls, not actual pink drops.

More players will be encouraged to buy the 100% re-rolls and spam Monster Bash now to even drop a pink.
Good game, STS.

[Energizeric]

Non-plat players do not do Monster Bash, so this change will not affect their chances of getting drops.

[Zeus]

Non-plat players do not do Monster Bash, so this change will not affect their chances of getting drops.

Non plat players do not get a re roll from purples either, so they have a very low chance of even getting drops. If you get a purple, then re roll, it turns into a pink.

[Zeus]

Non-plat players do not do Monster Bash, so this change will not affect their chances of getting drops.

Non plat players do not get a re roll from purples either, so they have a very low chance of even getting drops. If you get a purple, then re roll, it turns into a pink.

[Drizzid]

I dont think ive gotten 1 purple that hasnt been rerolled from green, and purples are trash items in Humania anyway.

Monster bash should change to either 1 plat, or there should be a package deal ie. 1 hour total time in monster bash for say 30 platinum. The absoloute only reason I would spend real money to run a map is if theres an obvious advantage, which there no longer is. I still dont see any positives coming from this.

[The Flash]

I dont know apollo I farmed for 70min in mash and was hoping to get 7 pinks thats one every 10min didnt get one in 70min of farming. :(

I don't think we got his post completely.
What Apollo is saying:


Swim, how are most people getting their pinks? Re-rolls from purples. This hardly affects platinum users/shamus users, just makes life more difficult to those who don't spend platinum. I thought the lesson was learned with the volconut.

The rarity of purples was NEVER decreased.

Break it down.
Here's what it is.
Most pinks are gotten FROM purples came out and dropped a lot more often.
Before this update, there WERE no purples, rendering luck elixirs and the FATAL 100% re-roll USELESS.
After purples came out, PLATINUM users were able to get so many pinks, not because of Monster Bash, but because PURPLES came out.
Since many were on 100% re-roll elixirs, the chance to get a purple is now their chance to get a pink.
And we all know how much easier it is to get a purple.

Right now, Platinum users have two ways of getting pinks.
1. Actually getting dropped a pink, which is a VERY VERY VERY low chance.
2. Getting a pink from re-rolling a purple, which is a pretty darn high drop rate.
And with 100% re-roll, they can now make all purples pinks.

What do non-Plat users play with?
No re-roll.

And now they decreased the drop rate for pinks.
While the purples' drop rate remained untouched.

Meaning the way of getting pinks to a non-Platinum user has became an all-time low.
The rate for the Platinum-users remains the same, only suffering such a tiny blow, since as I said before, most pinks come from re-rolls, not actual pink drops.

More players will be encouraged to buy the 100% re-rolls and spam Monster Bash now to even drop a pink.
Good game, STS.

Its sarcasm I got 7 pinks in 70min apollo was there for 5 lol hit gold cap and a half on humania.

[Energizeric]

....and purples are trash items in Humania anyway.

Not the case at all. Many of the Humania purples have better stats than the pinks from the previous 2 campaigns.

[Drizzid]

Not the case at all. Many of the Humania purples have better stats than the pinks from the previous 2 campaigns.

Go look at the 51-55 purples compared to pinks and then rethink your statement. I dont even think twice about selling back the 70 purples. Ill use the angel gear or a crafted 65 set before the 70 purples anyday and its a 5 level difference! Useless. Not to mention that they arent even worth 1000 on cs.

[Multibird]

What's to complain ABOUT?
SO what drop rate decreased....?

I have been doing runs at monster bash and did get hit with pinks couple of times. But since the drop rate decreased, it doesn't mean prices will not drop. Right now I'm leveling my mage (xbadmagex) to 71 and I'm not grinding hard like i did on multibird. I'm leveling hardly and getting hit with pinks a lot more than monster bash. Earlier today I recived Tiki bow at the coast. The day before that me and many others at the lagoon got a pink in less than a hour. I don't see why the prices will not drop.

Plat spender or non plat spender, so what bash is no good anymore, farm like you would normally farm at a dungeon. ;P

[modredd]

Tonight I farmed for 17,00 exp and did not see one pink.
I have to believe that in Bash with a re-roll elixer my chances are better,While not as good as last week but still better?

[Energizeric]

Go look at the 51-55 purples compared to pinks and then rethink your statement. I dont even think twice about selling back the 70 purples. Ill use the angel gear or a crafted 65 set before the 70 purples anyday and its a 5 level difference! Useless. Not to mention that they arent even worth 1000 on cs.

I've been selling all my L66 purples in the CS and have gotten as much as 25k for some of them.

Some of them are garbage, but some are very good. For example, the stiletto has higher DPS than any Humania pink item. Equipped with my Humanity Set (instead of the Scimitar) my DPS is around 550. The Limbchopper is also very good, giving 70 higher dps, 2 more dodge and 4 more armor than the nightmare scimitar when equipped with my Humanity set. The L66 Limbchopper is far better than the crafted orlok sword.

[Zeus]

You guys are lucky. I finally got some plat and did 8 thrasher runs through Monster Bash and did not get a single pink. I got about 8 purples though. And that was the night BEFORE the update.

You need shamus, otherwise you're wasting your time. :/

[Energizeric]

You need shamus, otherwise you're wasting your time. :/

I got the shamrock ale elixer tonight and got one pink in a half hour, but it's a good one. :)

Also, sold another one of those "garbage" purples tonight for 11k in the CS.

[vampinoy]

Some interesting figures from my point of view (it's highly possible I missed some movements, just sharing):

*If you sold at these prices, then you made the right decision
Islander Wand set hit all-time high at ~6million since Humania was released (first batch of pink rates)
Sun God Bow set hit all-time high at ~15million since Humania was released (first batch of pink rates)
Humanity Night. Scim set hit an all-time high at ~6million since Humania was released (first batch of pink rates)

*If you bought at these prices, you would be a couple of millions richer now
Islander Wand set hit an all-time low at ~2.5million since Humania was released (post drop rate increase)
Sun God Bow set hit an all-time low at ~7million since Humania was released (post drop rate increase)
Humanity Night. Scim. set hit an all-time low at ~2million since Humania was released (post drop rate increase)

*At this point, demand came into the picture and met the supply from monster bash
Islander Wand set recovered goes back up to ~4million (with high's reaching 4.1-4.2m+ )
Sun God Bow set recovered goes back up to ~9million (with high's reaching 9.5m+ )
Humanity Night. Scim. set recovered goes back up to ~2.7million (with high upper limits reaching 3million+ )


*At this point it was clear, the pinks coming from monster bash outpaces the slow demand because majority of players level up slow (non plat users), hence, prices dropping once again:
Islander Wand set a couple of hours pre-nerf at ~3.5million (descended from 4million since last check)
Sun God Bow set a couple of hours pre-nerf pre-nerf at ~8million (descended from 9million since last check)
Humanity Night. Scim set a couple of hours pre-nerf at ~2.5million (descended from 2.7million since last check)

Current rates in CS: (6 hour on and off observation today)
My suggestion: Buy them out if you can, and hold on to them until after crafting patch arrives
Islander wand set 3.6million (low), 3.9million (high), 3.75million (~)
Sun God Bow set at 9.5million (low), 11million (high), 10.25million (~)
Humanity scimitar set at 3.5million (low), 3.9million (high), 3.7million (~)

(~) - not exact figure, rounded off
* I only posted stuff regarding these items because these are the ones I actively trade

The prices were on its way down pre-nerf, the nerf totally change the course of the economy in a single day, and prices are now appreciating steadily and still kicking as indicated by the "high". Soon, as people level up and reach level 70, the demand for these items will increase like floodgate (a lot of people who aren't platinum users are still grinding at this point, holding on to their money), and the supply will presumably decrease because not many people can use platinum forever...at some point, these platinum farmers will slow down, so the supply from platinum farmers will inevitably weaken, and based on previous reasoning, it's only the platinum farmers who can effectively bring in pinks (due to increased re-rolls caused by luck buffs from thrasher, shamus), the drops from non-plat users almost doesn't exist as far as influence in the entire market currently...so no other way but prices to shoot up in the near future. Also, I think there will be a second wind in pricing (appreciating) come crafting patch, so...like what I said, base sets will be very high when the crafting patch arrives, it will be padded by the crafting costs, perception, crafting materials drop rates, etc. so in other words things are going to get pretty steep for the average Joe. So the situation is going to be, the first phase of this expansion we will see very high prices (maybe like Demonic sets in its peak), then second phase when the demand hits a dead end (because there's finite number of players), the supply can catch up now, so prices should naturally go down in the second phase, third phase is when people start speculating of new expansion, so now speculation of a new set will further cause prices to weaken. I know these are not conclusive data yet, I'm just playing around with my numbers. Don't take these as facts, these are just figures from a stranger, who likes to speculate. I'm just sharing my thoughts.

PS: I still think a few more days or even a week of high drop rates in monster bash would have helped the economy go down and give chance for more people to get them. The next time an average joe will get to see that chance once again is after the first phase is over...when everyone else has them...could be months from now depending on several factors.

[Drizzid]

I've been selling all my L66 purples in the CS and have gotten as much as 25k for some of them.

Some of them are garbage, but some are very good. For example, the stiletto has higher DPS than any Humania pink item. Equipped with my Humanity Set (instead of the Scimitar) my DPS is around 550. The Limbchopper is also very good, giving 70 higher dps, 2 more dodge and 4 more armor than the nightmare scimitar when equipped with my Humanity set. The L66 Limbchopper is far better than the crafted orlok sword.

You're acting like a car salesman trying to push a lemon on me saying it has great fuel mileage. Whats with this bias you have towards these useless items...?

25k? First off i call bs, unless the person who bought it was functionally retarded. I sell every purple for 999 and the majority still expire. Your argument is that the stats of 70 purples are slightly higher than previous pinks, and thats a losing one.

Dps really has no signifigance if the damage is low plus with a talon and bow that are far superior why would anyone use it?

2 dodge, 4 armor... Really? There is no incentive to use these purples especially when 65 items are BETTER. Half the server has angel gear and the purple gear isnt even in the same league. Don't try to defend these items for whatever reason you're continuing to do so because you're wrong.

I wish I were wrong and that they were a viable option at that level but sadly that just isnt the case.

[Energizeric]

Well, I continue to sell all my L66 purples in the CS. I've sold between 20 and 30 of them, the lowest for 1500, and the highest for over 20k. Last night I sold a L66 Leather armor for 11k, the 3rd leather armor I've sold for over 10k.

And yes, the L66 Limbchopper has better stats than my L66 Nightmare Scimitar of Humanity. The only reason I keep the Scimitar is because it will get a set bonus at some point. Without that bonus, all my stats are better with the Limbchopper. And the L66 Leather DEX armor is almost as good as the Sun God's armor. I have both and have compared. The difference in stats is very slight, a couple of points here and there. As for L70 purple stuff, yes it seems that prices are low because of huge supply. But L66 purples are very rare in CS, and so prices are very high, just like the prices of L66 pinks are higher than their 70 counterparts.

[Energizeric]

Some interesting figures from my point of view (it's highly possible I missed some movements, just sharing):

*If you sold at these prices, then you made the right decision
Islander Wand set hit all-time high at ~6million since Humania was released (first batch of pink rates)
Sun God Bow set hit all-time high at ~15million since Humania was released (first batch of pink rates)
Humanity Night. Scim set hit an all-time high at ~6million since Humania was released (first batch of pink rates)

*If you bought at these prices, you would be a couple of millions richer now
Islander Wand set hit an all-time low at ~2.5million since Humania was released (post drop rate increase)
Sun God Bow set hit an all-time low at ~7million since Humania was released (post drop rate increase)
Humanity Night. Scim. set hit an all-time low at ~2million since Humania was released (post drop rate increase)

*At this point, demand came into the picture and met the supply from monster bash
Islander Wand set recovered goes back up to ~4million (with high's reaching 4.1-4.2m+ )
Sun God Bow set recovered goes back up to ~9million (with high's reaching 9.5m+ )
Humanity Night. Scim. set recovered goes back up to ~2.7million (with high upper limits reaching 3million+ )


*At this point it was clear, the pinks coming from monster bash outpaces the slow demand because majority of players level up slow (non plat users), hence, prices dropping once again:
Islander Wand set a couple of hours pre-nerf at ~3.5million (descended from 4million since last check)
Sun God Bow set a couple of hours pre-nerf pre-nerf at ~8million (descended from 9million since last check)
Humanity Night. Scim set a couple of hours pre-nerf at ~2.5million (descended from 2.7million since last check)

Current rates in CS: (6 hour on and off observation today)
My suggestion: Buy them out if you can, and hold on to them until after crafting patch arrives
Islander wand set 3.6million (low), 3.9million (high), 3.75million (~)
Sun God Bow set at 9.5million (low), 11million (high), 10.25million (~)
Humanity scimitar set at 3.5million (low), 3.9million (high), 3.7million (~)

(~) - not exact figure, rounded off
* I only posted stuff regarding these items because these are the ones I actively trade

The prices were on its way down pre-nerf, the nerf totally change the course of the economy in a single day, and prices are now appreciating steadily and still kicking as indicated by the "high". Soon, as people level up and reach level 70, the demand for these items will increase like floodgate (a lot of people who aren't platinum users are still grinding at this point, holding on to their money), and the supply will presumably decrease because not many people can use platinum forever...at some point, these platinum farmers will slow down, so the supply from platinum farmers will inevitably weaken, and based on previous reasoning, it's only the platinum farmers who can effectively bring in pinks (due to increased re-rolls caused by luck buffs from thrasher, shamus), the drops from non-plat users almost doesn't exist as far as influence in the entire market currently...so no other way but prices to shoot up in the near future. Also, I think there will be a second wind in pricing (appreciating) come crafting patch, so...like what I said, base sets will be very high when the crafting patch arrives, it will be padded by the crafting costs, perception, crafting materials drop rates, etc. so in other words things are going to get pretty steep for the average Joe. So the situation is going to be, the first phase of this expansion we will see very high prices (maybe like Demonic sets in its peak), then second phase when the demand hits a dead end (because there's finite number of players), the supply can catch up now, so prices should naturally go down in the second phase, third phase is when people start speculating of new expansion, so now speculation of a new set will further cause prices to weaken. I know these are not conclusive data yet, I'm just playing around with my numbers. Don't take these as facts, these are just figures from a stranger, who likes to speculate. I'm just sharing my thoughts.

PS: I still think a few more days or even a week of high drop rates in monster bash would have helped the economy go down and give chance for more people to get them. The next time an average joe will get to see that chance once again is after the first phase is over...when everyone else has them...could be months from now depending on several factors.

Not sure why you are examining Sun God's bow set and Humanity Nightmare Scimitar set as Techno Email has already stated that neither will be a "set". The bow set will be "of Tiki" and the Nightmare Scimitar set will be "Humanian's".

[vampinoy]

Not sure why you are examining Sun God's bow set and Humanity Nightmare Scimitar set as Techno Email has already stated that neither will be a "set". The bow set will be "of Tiki" and the Nightmare Scimitar set will be "Humanian's".

These are one of my several speculations...like I said, if you think it's incorrect, it's ok :-). These events took place before Techno Email stated neither will be a set (and still hasn't reached most of the players). I just wanted to show the behavior of the market when events like drop rates are tweaked, the factor of speculation, and demand/supply, you could simply replace the gears (weapons), and once the market realizes this news from Techno Email, I assure you, the behavior will be exactly the same (But I realize I never said that in my original post...oh well).

PS: I also have speculations on the new combinations (not that much change), re the dps and tank variations...I've saved data from all gear movements of Humania since day 1...so I know the market has not realized what Techno Email said...in fact, someone (or some people) either went on a shopping spree or removed their items for sale shortly after Techno Email announced this new development on item sets...the number of gears in the market went down by almost half instantly (in less than an hour) and has never bounced back since, hoarding is definitely on-going.... As a merchant, I also prefer not discussing this any further, I just wanted to back up my original post why I think prices will go up. Good luck trading/farming ;-)

[FluffNStuff]

These are one of my several speculations...like I said, if you think it's incorrect, it's ok :-). These events took place before Techno Email stated neither will be a set (and still hasn't reached most of the players). I just wanted to show the behavior of the market when events like drop rates are tweaked, the factor of speculation, and demand/supply, you could simply replace the gears (weapons), and once the market realizes this news from Techno Email, I assure you, the behavior will be exactly the same.

PS: I also have speculation on the new combinations (not that much change)...I've saved data from all gear movements of Humania since day 1...so I know the market has not realized what Techno Email said...in fact, someone (or some people) smart bought a lot right after Techno Email announced this...the number of gears in the market went down by almost half instantly (in less than an hour), somebody's hoarding...whoever that is, he's pretty smart and quick. As a merchant, I also prefer not discussing this any further. Anyway, I may be wrong, my last suggestion should be "buy them out now, hold on to it right BEFORE crafting is released", that may be wrong, but it's a suggestion from a total stranger. Good luck trading.

I have watched the market for a while, and noticed that fluctuation in prices mostly coincided with when the platters would thrash monster bash vs when their wares would expire + the attempt of non platters to undercut them . My point being, price listed was rarely linked to market value. Did your research actually include any personal sales or just checking prices?

[vampinoy]

I have watched the market for a while, and noticed that fluctuation in prices mostly coincided with when the platters would thrash monster bash vs when their wares would expire + the attempt of non platters to undercut them . My point being, price listed was rarely linked to market value. Did your research actually include any personal sales or just checking prices?

I've sold/bought in every movement: I sold near the all time highs, bought near the all time lows...I held on to them when I thought market was shaky during the post drop rate increase...I practice what I analyze too. I've lost lots of money in the process by selling lower than my acquisition cost for fear of the market going down further...I've had my share of ups and downs. But again, all these are just from my point of view, may not be true to everyone else. I realize what you're saying, people tend to undercut/overprice at these times, everything is volatile, nothing touches the ground as everything moves swiftly...which means it's very exciting for someone like me who loves to speculate (not to mention this is the period of an expansion where anyone can make most money in such short periods of time). I just wanted to share this little info not to sound all-knowing of everything (I admit I can be wrong), I just wanted to show why I think prices will go up based on my original post that started this thread.

[FluffNStuff]

I've sold/bought in every movement: I sold near the all time highs, bought near the all time lows...I held on to them when I thought market was shaky during the post drop rate increase...I practice what I analyze too. I've lost lots of money in the process by selling lower than my acquisition cost for fear of the market going down further...I've had my share of ups and downs. But again, all these are just from my point of view, may not be true to everyone else. I realize what you're saying, people tend to undercut/overprice at these times, everything is volatile, nothing touches the ground as everything moves swiftly...which means it's very exciting for someone like me who loves to speculate (not to mention this is the period of an expansion where you make most money in such short periods of time, you miss it, you wait for next expansion).

It really is like playing the market. You can day trade on the natural fluctuations of the market but then the Chairwoman of the Fed (Techno-email) speaks and the prices take a real dive or spike depending on your investment. Just got to hope to dump that Lieman Brothers stock before the guy next to you or to ride out that General Motors bailout.