[Investment/Merchant] - Plat Eggs investing good/bad?

Well, it’s almost 2 weeks into this year’s egg hunt and the question I get asked a lot is my predictions on where plat eggs will RISE?

I know many plat egg investor are going to come after me so I will drop the equation instead of answering the question directly

So let’s put 4 most commonly invested items that has periods where they are UNOBTAINABLE (Keys, Awakes from event, Plat Eggs) and compare them together. (Let’s bare in mind the basic criteria for the item to buy are ACTUAL buyers purchasing and opening it)

What are we comparing?
1. How long it takes for the next restock (Frequency)
2. The rate these items are opened by buyers who NEEDS them
(Rate of Opening)

Low Frequency + High Rate of opening = RISE



1. Keys - Keys come every 14 & 28 of each month. So that’s a 14 days timeframe you are planning to invest/predict that there is a HIGH demand, maybe a new equipment dropped maybe LB rewards are good or maybe there is a nice vanity. If these conditions are valid we would agree keys are going to rise and many are opened at high rate!!

2. Blue Awakening gems - I’m not totally sure if there is a fix date? But let’s assume it’s once every 3-4 months. So what are occasions we mass open blue awakes? I think the most common would be unlocking weapon slots and gold loots gamble ( and we know it’s just like slots machine it’s hard to stop till you get what you want XD )

3. Arcane Awakening Gems - Frequency is same blue awakes at 3-4months. And when do we usually burn them? I would say during new gears released or multiple high offer lurking around for a specific awake (100% Gold Loot helm/armor, 7-8% Stats,30% MS items).

4.Plat Eggs - Plat Eggs has the best advantage in frequency. An ENTIRE YEAR of no plat egg supply. I’m sure we have seen the plat eggs for previous years doing very well. I think it capped at 3m-3.5/each at the 11th months. This year we have 300k eggs to burn (excluding the previous years). So when do we burn plat eggs the most? I would say name change , Firebug elixir buff and event plat store ( ie hailstone gems, rare plat decorations ). NOT very high speed don’t you think? But can it last for 1 YEAR?!! It will be up to the unknown events to decide this fact.

So that’s the formula and probably you should know before investing in any item instead of jumping into the hype because of previous year’s trend.

My conclusion, 300k plat egg this year is indeed ALOT and I foresee it would be a rather slow-rise considering the rate of consumption. Unlike Keys and Awakes where there is an addiction factor to open nonstop till you get the arcane gear or OP awake, plat eggs are opened in low Quantity most of the time. To make things worse the update to increase in HIGHER plat drop rate will further REDUCE the amount of eggs opened. Hence, the gold invested here might be frozen for a period of time till the demand really kicks in.

Do let me know I miss out any possibility that requires a huge amount of plat eggs to be open at high rate!!


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Its not worth it since 2 plat is what you get most from opening a piece.


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There is a chance that prev years plat eggs will be for maybe 10m each and this years' classic 3-3.5m as you said. Just the event store prices will go up and plat will be more rare and valuable so people buying plat will buy more plat. maybe that's how they planned it.

This must be the only game I've seen where people need public reassurance into investing into something to potentially make any money... Like why would you try to benefit YOURSELF and try to score community opinion on whatever item should be hoarded to raise in price in upcoming months. People seriously can't use the logic for themselves anymore it's shocking. lmao

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Xue

There is a chance that prev years plat eggs will be for maybe 10m each and this years' classic 3-3.5m as you said. Just the event store prices will go up and plat will be more rare and valuable so people buying plat will buy more plat. maybe that's how they planned it.

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Thanks for your view. Yes there is a low possibility but the condition has to be met where there is actually a need to choose to crack a plat egg instead of buying directly from a plat seller. If such “item” has not been released it will be hard for the egg to rise


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Telegramm

Well, it’s almost 2 weeks into this year’s egg hunt and the question I get asked a lot is my predictions on where plat eggs will RISE?

I know many plat egg investor are going to come after me so I will drop the equation instead of answering the question directly

So let’s put 4 most commonly invested items that has periods where they are UNOBTAINABLE (Keys, Awakes from event, Plat Eggs) and compare them together. (Let’s bare in mind the basic criteria for the item to buy are ACTUAL buyers purchasing and opening it)

What are we comparing?
1. How long it takes for the next restock (Frequency)
2. The rate these items are opened by buyers who NEEDS them
(Rate of Opening)

Low Frequency + High Rate of opening = RISE



1. Keys - Keys come every 14 & 28 of each month. So that’s a 14 days timeframe you are planning to invest/predict that there is a HIGH demand, maybe a new equipment dropped maybe LB rewards are good or maybe there is a nice vanity. If these conditions are valid we would agree keys are going to rise and many are opened at high rate!!

2. Blue Awakening gems - I’m not totally sure if there is a fix date? But let’s assume it’s once every 3-4 months. So what are occasions we mass open blue awakes? I think the most common would be unlocking weapon slots and gold loots gamble ( and we know it’s just like slots machine it’s hard to stop till you get what you want XD )

3. Arcane Awakening Gems - Frequency is same blue awakes at 3-4months. And when do we usually burn them? I would say during new gears released or multiple high offer lurking around for a specific awake (100% Gold Loot helm/armor, 7-8% Stats,30% MS items).

4.Plat Eggs - Plat Eggs has the best advantage in frequency. An ENTIRE YEAR of no plat egg supply. I’m sure we have seen the plat eggs for previous years doing very well. I think it capped at 3m-3.5/each at the 11th months. This year we have 300k eggs to burn (excluding the previous years). So when do we burn plat eggs the most? I would say name change , Firebug elixir buff and event plat store ( ie hailstone gems, rare plat decorations ). NOT very high speed don’t you think? But can it last for 1 YEAR?!! It will be up to the unknown events to decide this fact.

So that’s the formula and probably you should know before investing in any item instead of jumping into the hype because of previous year’s trend.

My conclusion, 300k plat egg this year is indeed ALOT and I foresee it would be a rather slow-rise considering the rate of consumption. Unlike Keys and Awakes where there is an addiction factor to open nonstop till you get the arcane gear or OP awake, plat eggs are opened in low Quantity most of the time. To make things worse the update to increase in HIGHER plat drop rate will further REDUCE the amount of eggs opened. Hence, the gold invested here might be frozen for a period of time till the demand really kicks in.

Do let me know I miss out any possibility that requires a huge amount of plat eggs to be open at high rate!!


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I dont say this very often to players but this was very insightful and well thought out thread , us pro players just know what to hoard and imo these newer players rely on us to advise them into what to hoard / buy ect because of course experience takes time and time again of failure , i commend you for extending your thoughts to help these players

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Telegramm

Thanks for your view. Yes there is a low possibility but the condition has to be met where there is actually a need to choose to crack a plat egg instead of buying directly from a plat seller. If such “item” has not been released it will be hard for the egg to rise


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The market will decide (xD)

From personal experience, merchants move in silence. U don't publicly announce your merch, u merch it all and stay quiet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by InsanitrisesAL

I dont say this very often to players but this was very insightful and well thought out thread , us pro players just know what to hoard and imo these newer players rely on us to advise them into what to hoard / buy ect because of course experience takes time and time again of failure , i commend you for extending your thoughts to help these players

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Your appreciation with the other merchants’ gratitude are the greatest support. Thanks!


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Statsonly

From personal experience, merchants move in silence. U don't publicly announce your merch, u merch it all and stay quiet

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Sounds like a very selfish act.

Also,if you take some effort to read the thread you will realised that it’s simply a fair comparison of 4 items of similar nature. Fair and square.

This is beauty of the public platform, I am biased to any of the items’s movement everyone able to criticise, I encourage people to constructively feedback on it with your suggestions!! An example of constructive feedback I was looking for was

“The frequency of Awakes should have been 2 months instead!”

In that way we could grow in a harmonious community with lesser players going down the wrong path of making unnecessary loss.


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It depends on upcoming events actually

Plat eggs were always in demand because they were a cheaper alternative to open crates , now it's more expensive to open crates using plat eggs rather than using keys , because of minimum being 2 Plats (Was 5 plat) , so I would say that they are overpriced even now.

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Originally Posted by ssbake

Plat eggs were always in demand because they were a cheaper alternative to open crates , now it's more expensive to open crates using plat eggs rather than using keys , because of minimum being 2 Plats (Was 5 plat) , so I would say that they are overpriced even now.

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If you wanted to open crates I would say plat eggs were always more expensive than keys. I would say that the cheaper alternative of keys was pretty much never the case why ppl were buying plat eggs. Maybe they thought it is but after one or two openings they would understand that it doesnt work like that. Plat has just so much more functionalities. And Im talking about plat eggs several months after event for like 3m each while 50 crate keys kits for 6-8m each.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Xue

If you wanted to open crates I would say plat eggs were always more expensive than keys. I would say that the cheaper alternative of keys was pretty much never the case why ppl were buying plat eggs. Maybe they thought it is but after one or two openings they would understand that it doesnt work like that. Plat has just so much more functionalities. And Im talking about plat eggs several months after event for like 3m each while 50 crate keys kits for 6-8m each.

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Nope , it was always a better choice to open crates with plat eggs as f2p , and the reason it retained value was because of the chance to get more plat over the 5 guaranteed

And about other functionalities, I know them all very well , It was a cheaper alternative for crafting slots as well , now? Not so much

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ssbake

Plat eggs were always in demand because they were a cheaper alternative to open crates , now it's more expensive to open crates using plat eggs rather than using keys , because of minimum being 2 Plats (Was 5 plat) , so I would say that they are overpriced even now.

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Yes and buying plat eggs for keys WOULD have been the largest factor that bring up the “rate of consumption” up.

Current market is probably at:
1. Name Change
2. Firebug Elixir (potion)

It will be very hard for the egg to rise as the investors will have to bet on either keys/awake going extremely cheap else an event which has high demand plat items that are un-tradable. Any tradable plat items like event aura will simply be purchased by a spender and sold for around 150-200k/plat depending on the hype.

A clearer breakdown:
500k/plat (1mil egg > giving 2plats)
130k/plat (6.5m 50 keys crate worth 50 plats)
94k/plat (470k Elite awakes worth 5 plats)
A 1750 plat aura at 200k/plat goes for 350m


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