I try my luck everyday on 10-20 copper/silver chest and i am still waiting to see talon.
Back to topic:
1. OP your chance to loot Talon is based on: A % wich is very very low, how many chest you open and their quality. Golden > all others.
2. The fact sometimes you keep looting junks and after a while everything turns around and you keep looting good stuff it is what i defined in another thread as "Hype", its one of the mysteries of Arcane Legends so called "random" luck.
When you are in Hype mode do everything thats Luck base, like opening chest for talon, farming or simply gamble on locked crates.