someone attempt this please i'm dying for explanation over here
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The probability is still the same, cuz even if Zuzeq won't be executed, his name will still be in the hat, so there's still 3 name, so 1/3 for each name, since the probability to get a name is independent.
That would have been my second guess before hearing the answer.
Binomial distribution is not needed here, as we are trying to find the occurance of something happening at least one time, rather than happening a specific number of times, such as "3 heads out of 10 flips."
We'll continue to do the assumed odds of .5% (1/200) for a mythic out of a locked crate. A locked crate has 3 drops. Each are independent of each other. You can get 1 mythic, 2, or even 3! Each time you roll a "200 sided die" with 1 side being a mythic.
So you have 3x 1/200 chances of getting at least one mythic in any given crate. You don't add those chances together.
It's easiest to calculate the non 'hits' and then subtract from the whole. So, we have 199 non hits, for each attempt. For one locked crate, we have (199/200)*(199/200)*(199/200) chance of not hitting. This comes out to: 0.985074875. Subtract that from 1 (the sum of chances for all non hits and hits) to get your chance of having at least one hit. You get: 0.014925125. It is, indeed, close to .015, but I like using numbers that haven't been rounded a lot, especially since we're calculating such small numbers from the start!
Now, if you want to calculate the chance of getting at least one mythic out of a number of crates, you'd use our number for non hits up there, raise it to the power equal to the number of crates, and then subtract that from one. It's the same chance calculation that we just did for a single crate.
So, your chance for a mythic in 25 crates would be calculated like this:
1 - (0.985074875^25) = 0.313356907
In 50:
1 - (0.985074875^50) = 0.528521263
In 100:
1 - (0.985074875^100) = 0.7777078
In 500:
1 - (0.985074875^500) = 0.999457223
In 1000
1 - (0.985074875^1000) = 0.999999705
So, as you can see, even with one crate you have a chance, though small. And even if you open as many as 1000 crates, you aren't guaranteed a mythic.
Also, you can see that if you were to graph this, it wouldn't be a straight line.
The math here is correct, which means one of two things: either the chances for a myhtic item are much lower than 1/200, or some of us are EXTREMELY unlucky. :D
Enjoy, guys. And yes...I really did type this all up on my phone (along with running all the numbers)! lol >.<
A Fang of Fenrir sure would be a nice thank you. B) haha