It's just the PMF of the distribution at 0,1,2,3 and 4 for each curve (its maximum for one is bimodal at 499999 and 500000 trials). Hope that clarifies it for you.
Type: Posts; User: p-value
It's just the PMF of the distribution at 0,1,2,3...
It's just the PMF of the distribution at 0,1,2,3 and 4 for each curve (its maximum for one is bimodal at 499999 and 500000 trials). Hope that clarifies it for you.
That would of course be the binomial...
That would of course be the binomial distribution. Here's the PMF for 0 to 4 seen by trials:
152689
Note that these are not a "bellcurve" - the probability is much too low for the # of trials...
No, it's not.
You are ~1.85 X more likely get...
No, it's not.
You are ~1.85 X more likely get you first success on trial 346575 versus trial 653425.
The distribution of trials to first success is most certainly *not* a "bellcurve", it is a...
Bold emphasis mine: Careful with your wording...
Bold emphasis mine: Careful with your wording there. 500k is *not* the most likely (which is of course 1, the mode of the distribution. IOW, you are *most likely* to succeed on the first attempt...
Not at all how I read it, nor based on that...
Not at all how I read it, nor based on that poster's other replies what they meant.
It is, in fact, the very definition in probability: *Expectation*, which *is* 1 for the example the poster gave.