Open locked

[rook storm]

All your plat are belong to us

[Temarichan]

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

[joshtheboss]

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

How'd you arrive at that conclusion?

[wawawa64]

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

It's actually mathematically possible... each crate give you 3 independent rolls, so it's mathematically possible that you get 3000 mythics from 1000 crates, but the probability is like (0.005)^3000 low, assuming each roll gives you .5% of getting a mythic. It's very small, but it's still possible.

[Xbuddyjosh]

It actually is really simple if you understand the math. Suppose a mythic has a .5 percent chance of dropping. That means it has a 99.5 percent chance of NOT dropping. Now you have 3 chances per crate, so one crate has a a 98.5 of NOT dropping a mythic. Now, your next question is, what is the chance of it NOT dropping a mythic for 100 crates in a row??? That is 22.2%. That means it has a 77.7% chance at dropping a mythic. Not good enough? 150 crates in a row is 89% chance at a mythic? Want a just about guarantee??? 200 crates in a row is a 95% chance.

Now, that is all assuming the initial drop rate is right ...

Ur luck doesn't stack

[Ulthyre]

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

Typo, the chance of getting 10 tails inna row, [2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024-Tree] 1024 outcomes, 1/1024 = 0.0009765625% didn't check the rest but if you based it on the typo then .. I understand what you're saying

Is probability/chance accumulative? I'm sure you know what I mean lol just poor wording. 100% logic to assume your chances of getting mythic increases with the more crates you open. Or does is stay the same? When you get a mythic is it because of the fact that eventually you have to or because of that small chance you always had? AHH idk This was written after all of what below was done.

Fractions
3 chances in one crate.
.5% or 1/200
What makes more sense?
3/200 (1.5%) or 3/600 (same as 1/200 or .5%)
The chances of getting a mythic DOES multiple by 3 but that means the chance of not getting a mythic has to also multiple by 3.
OR
the rolls may not be individual so 3/200 = 1.5%
but now same thing as before but multiple crates
6/200 or 6/400 (2 crates)
----------
you have a bag with 200 items, 1 is mythic. (more than one mythic in game so leading me to believe all mythics equal .5% or lower lol)
Do you get to draw three times from the same bag? 1/200, 1/199, 1/198?
No, either the number of items increases or you start over. (Note not confirmed but the odds will never go above *1.5% in this case per crate*. Do we see the crate as a whole where 3 things are chosen from a certain set or each individual roll has its own set, we don't know. The next crate you open doesn't or rather shouldn't rely on info from last crate so it starts over)

** Please excuse any oversights as I have a very limited knowledge in probability but believe I do have a strong grasp on basic math skills.
Completed 10th grade Canadian math lol I revert to logic instead of math sometimes.... lots of edits :c I think I did a bad job explaining. But the main problem I'm seeing in the other posts is that the chance of not getting mythic or rather getting something else isn't increasing when it should be(more accurately multiplied by the same number the chance of getting a mythic is). Though it is much harder to multiple percents and make sense of them of course.

Your luck(chance) basically flat-lines and will forever be the same per roll OR per crate. Unless stated otherwise by STS. Like that day we got boost in chance for mythics and arcane.

[Venom]

Okay everyone, first try to understand the CHANCE when it comes to this game. Its NOT a guaranteed chance if you open x number of crates.

For example, if the initial chance of dropping a mythic is 1% and you open 100 crates, doesn't guarantee you at least one mythic item.
Picture a Wheel of luck. Like a pie chart!! 1% of that huge pie chart is your mythic drop, and now you get to rotate the wheel when you open a crate or a chest. Your loot drop now depends on where the arrow ends on when the wheel stops spinning. This all happens very fast.

Thats a simple explanation of CHANCE.

So in short, crates is like gambling, if you win you win, if you lose you lose. If you're ready to take a chance then go on, open them! Else just buy what you want from CS -.-

[Ulthyre]

^ what he said
those last few sentences sum it up nicely. I spent over an hour pondering about probability on a game forum at almost 5am. -_- I need sleep.

[saroeun]

It's actually mathematically possible... each crate give you 3 independent rolls, so it's mathematically possible that you get 3000 mythics from 1000 crates, but the probability is like (0.005)^3000 low, assuming each roll gives you .5% of getting a mythic. It's very small, but it's still possible.

I agree

[saroeun]

Okay everyone, first try to understand the CHANCE when it comes to this game. Its NOT a guaranteed chance if you open x number of crates.

For example, if the initial chance of dropping a mythic is 1% and you open 100 crates, doesn't guarantee you at least one mythic item.
Picture a Wheel of luck. Like a pie chart!! 1% of that huge pie chart is your mythic drop, and now you get to rotate the wheel when you open a crate or a chest. Your loot drop now depends on where the arrow ends on when the wheel stops spinning. This all happens very fast.

Thats a simple explanation of CHANCE.

So in short, crates is like gambling, if you win you win, if you lose you lose. If you're ready to take a chance then go on, open them! Else just buy what you want from CS -.-

1- I agree
2- I'm not agree :cuz I try open chest after I got re-roll luck(I still got nothing=No legendary droop)
3- thank u! ^_^

[Energizeric]

This is suggestions to the best player or the person had experience Open Locked Grate...
I'm very worry about my paying flatium to open locked. I'm really wanna get the best thing in the Locked. So I wanna know about your experience from all Arcane players.
Please Tell me
" How to Open Locked? "
" what we need to wear before we open Locked? "
" when we should to Open Locked? "
Thanks Advance (If I have something wrong please tell me, cuz I don't want to get Ban from Officers)

Sorry I'm late to this discussion....

But in response to the OP, where do I get this flatium stuff?

[JaytB]

Sorry I'm late to this discussion....

But in response to the OP, where do I get this flatium stuff?

Must be inflated platinum

[wawawa64]

Typo, the chance of getting 10 tails inna row, [2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024-Tree] 1024 outcomes, 1/1024 = 0.0009765625% didn't check the rest but if you based it on the typo then .. I understand what you're saying

Is probability/chance accumulative? I'm sure you know what I mean lol just poor wording. 100% logic to assume your chances of getting mythic increases with the more crates you open. Or does is stay the same? When you get a mythic is it because of the fact that eventually you have to or because of that small chance you always had? AHH idk This was written after all of what below was done.

Fractions
3 chances in one crate.
.5% or 1/200
What makes more sense?
3/200 (1.5%) or 3/600 (same as 1/200 or .5%)
The chances of getting a mythic DOES multiple by 3 but that means the chance of not getting a mythic has to also multiple by 3.
OR
the rolls may not be individual so 3/200 = 1.5%
but now same thing as before but multiple crates
6/200 or 6/400 (2 crates)
----------
you have a bag with 200 items, 1 is mythic. (more than one mythic in game so leading me to believe all mythics equal .5% or lower lol)
Do you get to draw three times from the same bag? 1/200, 1/199, 1/198?
No, either the number of items increases or you start over. (Note not confirmed but the odds will never go above *1.5% in this case per crate*. Do we see the crate as a whole where 3 things are chosen from a certain set or each individual roll has its own set, we don't know. The next crate you open doesn't or rather shouldn't rely on info from last crate so it starts over)

** Please excuse any oversights as I have a very limited knowledge in probability but believe I do have a strong grasp on basic math skills.
Completed 10th grade Canadian math lol I revert to logic instead of math sometimes.... lots of edits :c I think I did a bad job explaining. But the main problem I'm seeing in the other posts is that the chance of not getting mythic or rather getting something else isn't increasing when it should be(more accurately multiplied by the same number the chance of getting a mythic is). Though it is much harder to multiple percents and make sense of them of course.

Your luck(chance) basically flat-lines and will forever be the same per roll OR per crate. Unless stated otherwise by STS. Like that day we got boost in chance for mythics and arcane.

I think you misunderstand Fluff's calculation. He never change the chance of getting a mythic from 1 crate (or 3 independent rolls); it's always .5% per roll in his calculation. And each crates are independent from each other, so this .5% per roll is always the same regardless of the number of crates opened.

Instead, what he's trying to calculate is the probability of getting ZERO mythic from opening 100 crates. Then 1 - that probability means the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 crates (not 1 crate).

To understand this problem in a different way; instead of thinking about 1 person opening 100 crates in a roll, try to think of it as 100 persons opening 1 crate each. These 2 events are equivalent because each crates are independent from each other.

So now what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 100 persons? Now imagine there are 1 million people playing AL now and they all open just 1 crate each, what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 1 million persons? Don't you think the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 persons is different than getting at least 1 mythic from 1 million persons?

[falmear]

Yes its all random except sometimes you get better odds:

"Legendary items had a slightly too high drop rate in lower level Locked Crates of the Grand Watch. Adjusted."

http://www.spacetimestudios.com/show...Update-(124465

[Venom]

1- I agree
2- I'm not agree :cuz I try open chest after I got re-roll luck(I still got nothing=No legendary droop)
3- thank u! ^_^

Your reroll/luck elixir DOES NOT affect what you get from crates/chests

[saroeun]

I think you misunderstand Fluff's calculation. He never change the chance of getting a mythic from 1 crate (or 3 independent rolls); it's always .5% per roll in his calculation. And each crates are independent from each other, so this .5% per roll is always the same regardless of the number of crates opened.

Instead, what he's trying to calculate is the probability of getting ZERO mythic from opening 100 crates. Then 1 - that probability means the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 crates (not 1 crate).

To understand this problem in a different way; instead of thinking about 1 person opening 100 crates in a roll, try to think of it as 100 persons opening 1 crate each. These 2 events are equivalent because each crates are independent from each other.

So now what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 100 persons? Now imagine there are 1 million people playing AL now and they all open just 1 crate each, what's the probability of getting at least 1 mythic among these 1 million persons? Don't you think the probability of getting at least 1 mythic from 100 persons is different than getting at least 1 mythic from 1 million persons?

OK... I'm agree
So depen on lucky

[fumolamota]

The Formula for Binomial Probabilities

The binomial distribution consists of the probabilities of each of the possible numbers of successes on N trials for independent events that each have a probability of π (the Greek letter pi) of occurring. For the coin flip example, N = 2 and π = 0.5. The formula for the binomial distribution is shown below:



where P(x) is the probability of x successes out of N trials, N is the number of trials, and π is the probability of success on a given trial.

[saroeun]

The Formula for Binomial Probabilities

The binomial distribution consists of the probabilities of each of the possible numbers of successes on N trials for independent events that each have a probability of π (the Greek letter pi) of occurring. For the coin flip example, N = 2 and π = 0.5. The formula for the binomial distribution is shown below:



where P(x) is the probability of x successes out of N trials, N is the number of trials, and π is the probability of success on a given trial.

Do they used this formula for this game???
It's always < 1

[djironlung]

It actually is really simple if you understand the math. Suppose a mythic has a .5 percent chance of dropping. That means it has a 99.5 percent chance of NOT dropping. Now you have 3 chances per crate, so one crate has a a 98.5 of NOT dropping a mythic. Now, your next question is, what is the chance of it NOT dropping a mythic for 100 crates in a row??? That is 22.2%. That means it has a 77.7% chance at dropping a mythic. Not good enough? 150 crates in a row is 89% chance at a mythic? Want a just about guarantee??? 200 crates in a row is a 95% chance.

Now, that is all assuming the initial drop rate is right ...

now this is a crock of bull. each crate has the same odds no matter how many you previously opened and doesn't increase with numbers. I opened over 600 Before I got one mythic. the odds stay the same per crate and therefore doesn't increase by opening 200. this is a mathematical fallacy and should be disregarded. the chances are about as good as winning the lottery. you could open 1000 and get nothing( which I've seen several people do... several) or open 2 and get lucky. the odds never increase. there is actually one person I know who opened 2,450 and didn't get one mythic so take that to the bank

[saroeun]

now this is a crock of bull. each crate has the same odds no matter how many you previously opened and doesn't increase with numbers. I opened over 600 Before I got one mythic. the odds stay the same per crate and therefore doesn't increase by opening 200. this is a mathematical fallacy and should be disregarded. the chances are about as good as winning the lottery. you could open 1000 and get nothing( which I've seen several people do... several) or open 2 and get lucky. the odds never increase. there is actually one person I know who opened 2,450 and didn't get one mythic so take that to the bank

I never open a locked, but I strongly agree with u. Because one time when I got lucky elixir, I try fight for locked crate, but I don't get even one... In this party too one person got locked Crate without lucky elixir....... ^_^