Open locked

**wawawa64** · 08-12-2013, 08:52 PM

Originally Posted by djironlung

now this is a crock of bull. each crate has the same odds no matter how many you previously opened and doesn't increase with numbers. I opened over 600 Before I got one mythic. the odds stay the same per crate and therefore doesn't increase by opening 200. this is a mathematical fallacy and should be disregarded. the chances are about as good as winning the lottery. you could open 1000 and get nothing( which I've seen several people do... several) or open 2 and get lucky. the odds never increase. there is actually one person I know who opened 2,450 and didn't get one mythic so take that to the bank

again... Fluff never assume the odd changes per crate... he's looking at the probability of 200 (or 1000) crates as a whole. If you have time, please read some of the previous posts, or just try to understand "Binomial Distribution" posted by fumolamota...

At the end of the day, we don't know the chance of getting a mythic per crate (it's assumed to be .5% per roll here in Fluff's calculation), then we won't know what the probability would be, so it all depends on luck.

**wawawa64** · 08-12-2013, 09:02 PM

Originally Posted by saroeun

Do they used this formula for this game???
It's always < 1

No, they don't use this formula in the game. This formula is used to calculate the probability of successes in N number of trials of independent events. It can be applied on many things like what is the probability of rolling six ones in a row on a fair six faces dice if you roll the dice 100 times, or what is the probability of getting 10 heads in a roll if you flip a fair coin 100 times. Think of it as a mathematical way of describing what's the probability when you flip a coin 100 times, or roll a dice 100 times or in this case, open 100 crates.

And yes, the probability is always < 1, but it can get very very close to 1.

**saroeun** · 08-18-2013, 06:44 PM

Originally Posted by wawawa64

No, they don't use this formula in the game. This formula is used to calculate the probability of successes in N number of trials of independent events. It can be applied on many things like what is the probability of rolling six ones in a row on a fair six faces dice if you roll the dice 100 times, or what is the probability of getting 10 heads in a roll if you flip a fair coin 100 times. Think of it as a mathematical way of describing what's the probability when you flip a coin 100 times, or roll a dice 100 times or in this case, open 100 crates.

And yes, the probability is always < 1, but it can get very very close to 1.

I'm not sure with that... So depen on Our luck.

**Paresseu** · 08-20-2013, 07:20 AM

Hey guys.

I'm here to tell you guys to don't loose faith in this harsh quest that is opening locked crates, I just got thr mythic sorcerer armor after opening 15 locked crates, so everything is possible ! Some intels : I was hungry and eating a delicious salad. Good luck everyone !

**saroeun** · 08-21-2013, 01:29 PM

Originally Posted by Paresseu

Hey guys.

I'm here to tell you guys to don't loose faith in this harsh quest that is opening locked crates, I just got thr mythic sorcerer armor after opening 15 locked crates, so everything is possible ! Some intels : I was hungry and eating a delicious salad. Good luck everyone !

Oh... Thanks Guy :-)
You are so lucky man.... (opened 15locked=1 My-amor). Most of our friends spended much locked , but nothing.
Best idea help us improve together!!
^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^ ^_^

**Buriedalive** · 08-21-2013, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by saroeun:1192573

This is suggestions to the best player or the person had experience Open Locked Grate...
I'm very worry about my paying flatium to open locked. I'm really wanna get the best thing in the Locked. So I wanna know about your experience from all Arcane players.
Please Tell me
" How to Open Locked? "
" what we need to wear before we open Locked? "
" when we should to Open Locked? "
Thanks Advance (If I have something wrong please tell me, cuz I don't want to get Ban from Officers)

"How to open locked?" are you serious?
All these question are just stupid. You don't have to open them in a special way. How many forum threads has been created to tell its all about luck.

You thought you could loot a mythic/arcane item from your first chest by just opened them in a special way? I don't wanna be rude but you have some serious problems if you think that will work.

Simple answers to your stupid question:
1. Use 15 platinums.
2. Nothing.
3. When ever you feel like.

**Rare** · 08-21-2013, 02:03 PM

You like using that word "stupid" don't you?

What goes around comes around LOL

**Buriedalive** · 08-21-2013, 02:07 PM

Originally Posted by Aedenos:1233422

You like using that word "stupid" don't you?

What goes around comes around LOL

You like:
1. Stalking people.
2. Tell your "word of wisdom"
3. Trying to be funny.
4. Bumping threads aka post farming.
5. Be a nub.

**FluffNStuff** · 08-21-2013, 02:53 PM

It seems an issue here is the general idea of probability. Figure I will toss out a brain teaser that I must admit took me quite a while to wrap my feeble brain around:

HunnySniper, Aedenos, and Zuzeq are put on trial for assassinating Frostir and the Jarl decides as punishment one of them must be put to death. He places all three names in a hat and draws out one of them, and says he will officially announce the name in the Kraag town square the next day at Noon. HunnySniper, not being able to stand the anticipation while being held in the Watchers Tomb, begs for information. A guard offers to tell him what the fate of one of his companions will be, for a price. HunnySniper agrees, and bribes the guard, who reveals that Zuzeq will NOT be executed.
So, with this information ...
What is the probability that HunnySniper will be executed?
What is the probability that Aedenos will be executed?

**iluvataris** · 08-21-2013, 04:02 PM

Im horrible at the stuff, But wouldnt honeysniper have 50% chance at being executed. Or a 1 out of 2 chance.

**FluffNStuff** · 08-21-2013, 04:14 PM

Originally Posted by iluvataris

Im horrible at the stuff, But wouldnt honeysniper have 50% chance at being executed. Or a 1 out of 2 chance.

That is incorrect, but what I thought for a really long time, despite having heard the correct answer! Will give others a chance to look at it, though will PM you in case you are curious.

**iluvataris** · 08-21-2013, 04:15 PM

And before the gaurds tip of zuzeqs life being spared honesniper had a 66.6%survival rate?

**iluvataris** · 08-21-2013, 04:16 PM

Np i can wait : )

**FluffNStuff** · 08-21-2013, 04:17 PM

Originally Posted by iluvataris

And before the gaurds tip of zuzeqs life being spared honesniper had a 66.6%survival rate?

Before the tip, they all had a 1/3 chance of death, or a 2/3 chance of surviving.

**Szangheili** · 08-21-2013, 04:39 PM

Lol, the 0.5% chances do not stack the more you open crates, if it were true, everyone would have mythics and arcane equipment by then.

**iluvataris** · 08-21-2013, 04:48 PM

Originally Posted by Szangheili

Lol, the 0.5% chances do not stack the more you open crates, if it were true, everyone would have mythics and arcane equipment by then.

again i am horrible at this but i think i get what fluff is saying, the chance at getting something great from a crate doesn't change individually.
But as a whole, the more crates you open the more CHANCES you have at getting something great. which in my head Overall you have a better chance at getting 1 amazing item the more crates you open but will never be 100%

**Paresseu** · 08-21-2013, 04:55 PM

It's all about the binomial distribution/law, that's pretty much it.

**FluffNStuff** · 08-21-2013, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by Szangheili

Lol, the 0.5% chances do not stack the more you open crates, if it were true, everyone would have mythics and arcane equipment by then.

Please answer the brain teaser.

**iluvataris** · 08-21-2013, 05:02 PM

i'm still trying to wrap my head around the answer : /
I understand the the probability of honeysniper being executed but not Aedenos final probability : /

**Travis Garner Behlke** · 08-21-2013, 05:05 PM

it doesnt really matter what u have equiped when u open locked. it can either be something really good or something tht is complete garbage. Ive only gotten two locked grand chests... lvl 16 - 15 plat to open n i got the expensive lvl 16 bonechill bow, 5000 gold, and some other piece of garbage i just turned around and sold. didnt put it in cs cause it wasnt worth my time. i opened mine at lvl 15 and 16...lvl 15 - nothing worth anything at all...so its really a toss up...i know u can get some beastly companions out of them but either way...right now im lvl 20 and the lvl 16 bonechill bow carried me to lvl 19 n i bought the swords again...sold bow in my guild for 25k...cs it was going for 45k...i just wanted it off my hands for quick cash...but i know the higher lvl you are, the better equipment you can get...i do not know however if you can only get class specific stuff or not but either way...you can get something really awsome or something totally garbage...it all depends on if you wanna run the risk of spending plat...it can either be totally worth it, or make u wanna throw the game at a concrete wall afterwards...ur best bet ive found to is to do the offers from wi3 to get free plat in order to open it...whatever you do, DO NOT BUY PLATNIUM...not worth it at all...add me in game...lvl 20 rouge - Fablinix...dueces