Open locked

[wawawa64]

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

I am with you on this one. People should just look up "binomial distribution" and understand it.

The only unknown here is the probability of getting a mythic from the crates, which is assumed to be .5%.

[Rare]

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

All I can say is google "The Gambler's Fallacy"

I am with you on this one. People should just look up "binomial distribution" and understand it.

The only unknown here is the probability of getting a mythic from the crates, which is assumed to be .5%.

See my comment above

[FluffNStuff]

All I can say is google "The Gambler's Fallacy"

The Gambler's Fallacy is a misinterpretation of probability theory. Probability theory says that if you open 100 crates in a row you will have a 77% chance at a mythic. But if you open 50 and get NO mythic, Gambler's fallacy says you STILL have a 77% (or GREATER) chance at getting a mythic , but according to probability theory, you now have 50 crates left and have a 52% chance at getting a mythic. 77% is your chance at the beginning, and your chance drops each crate you open, not rises or stays the same.

[Snakespeare]

Wait... the odds don't change. They remain constant. Each roll of the computer pseudo-random is compared to the constant. The computer does not keep track of the previous rolls. All statistics can give you is a guess at how many attempt, on the average, are needed to have a positive result. But there's no cosmic Law of Averages. Each attempt takes place regardless of the previous results.

[Zanpakuto]

Just for the record, I've opened hundreds during mythic events and didn't get anything. It's all luck

[wawawa64]

All I can say is google "The Gambler's Fallacy"



See my comment above

Yes, I know where your confusion is. Fluff's calculation is calculating what's the probability of the NEXT 100 crates that you open. He has no idea what has happen in the past.

For instance, Player A has never open any crates before and he's planning to open 100 crates; Fluff's calculation tells you Player A has 77% to get a mythic.

Now, Player B has already opened 1000 crates and he gets 0 mythic, and he's planning to open 100 more crates; the probability that he's going to get a mythic from these NEXT 100 crates is the same, which is 77%. BUT, the big difference here is that you KNOW Player B has already open 1000 and get 0 mythic, but Fluff's calculation does not include this. This is additional information that Fluff doesn't have, but this is not what he's trying to calculate.

[joshtheboss]

So if someone was dumb enough, there's a CHANCE if they open 50k crates that they could possibly not get a mythic/arcane?

Yes.

[Trenton]

Wow I'm good in math and can't keep up with this .-.

[IronMonkey]

I'm not good in Math but I'm betting my 100 gold on Aedenos on this. The player's rants before when crates and hammerjaw were introduced support this logic. They have opened 1000+ crates and nothing, while some players have opened a couple and got it.

[Xxxxzero]

Good luck to those who are opening these crates. From my personal experience I farmed 260 crates total, order my platinum, then cleared my inventory then started opening like crazy. In the end I ended up with no mythic or arcane items, and very little plat. The legendary items I obtained i couldn't even sell for more than 10k. You can do the math on how much REAL money that took and I ended up with nothing. So good luck to those who are opening crates. All just seems like a scam to take your money.
-Zero

[Rare]

Yes, I know where your confusion is. Fluff's calculation is calculating what's the probability of the NEXT 100 crates that you open. He has no idea what has happen in the past.

For instance, Player A has never open any crates before and he's planning to open 100 crates; Fluff's calculation tells you Player A has 77% to get a mythic.

Now, Player B has already opened 1000 crates and he gets 0 mythic, and he's planning to open 100 more crates; the probability that he's going to get a mythic from these NEXT 100 crates is the same, which is 77%. BUT, the big difference here is that you KNOW Player B has already open 1000 and get 0 mythic, but Fluff's calculation does not include this. This is additional information that Fluff doesn't have, but this is not what he's trying to calculate.

Nono... there is no confusion. We are talking about opening a crate right to get an item? I think we open them one at a time. Not sure.

[Lord Souldancer]

I spent alot of RL $ and tons of time on promos and man I opened hundreds of crates and I have made some moment got one arcane item and a few mythics, I like that the devs keep the high end items hard to get, but man I opened 50ish one time and bonechill was the best I got owell, maybe they could loosen it up a tiny bit just saying

[saroeun]

I spent alot of RL $ and tons of time on promos and man I opened hundreds of crates and I have made some moment got one arcane item and a few mythics, I like that the devs keep the high end items hard to get, but man I opened 50ish one time and bonechill was the best I got owell, maybe they could loosen it up a tiny bit just saying

Oh.... Sound so hard to get Arcane Item: How much U spend flatium?

[saroeun]

Yes, I know where your confusion is. Fluff's calculation is calculating what's the probability of the NEXT 100 crates that you open. He has no idea what has happen in the past.

For instance, Player A has never open any crates before and he's planning to open 100 crates; Fluff's calculation tells you Player A has 77% to get a mythic.

Now, Player B has already opened 1000 crates and he gets 0 mythic, and he's planning to open 100 more crates; the probability that he's going to get a mythic from these NEXT 100 crates is the same, which is 77%. BUT, the big difference here is that you KNOW Player B has already open 1000 and get 0 mythic, but Fluff's calculation does not include this. This is additional information that Fluff doesn't have, but this is not what he's trying to calculate.

So may don't open Locked... Cuz I have only 30flatuim (get from forum)..... Small chane to get Arcane Item

[saroeun]

Good luck to those who are opening these crates. From my personal experience I farmed 260 crates total, order my platinum, then cleared my inventory then started opening like crazy. In the end I ended up with no mythic or arcane items, and very little plat. The legendary items I obtained i couldn't even sell for more than 10k. You can do the math on how much REAL money that took and I ended up with nothing. So good luck to those who are opening crates. All just seems like a scam to take your money.
-Zero

I'm strongly agree...
I always thought that why don't have Arcane Item from farm... Only small good item got from farm...

[saroeun]

There are no tricks, exploits or other things you can do to increase your chances to get something good. It's all pure luck.

Thanks!!! Doing u have other way?

[saroeun]

Take ur locked
Fire up ur platinums
Drink 3 Glasses of water **NOTE not full
Pray.
Eat a Sandwich
Open
Good Luck

Wow....
This is great chance!!!
Thanks so much that maked us smile

[saroeun]

Crates are big huge rip off ploy tiny piece luck mostly if all chooses you
Notice same people find all the goods other extremely rare as in u may find something if u spend a few grand in real money

No way!!!
I don't have money to spend for game...

[rook storm]

1.Open crate
2. Wonder why you took step 1

[rook storm]

For all we know, only a certain number of crates may be allowed to contain anything worthwhile in each 24 hr period?
Like some slot machines which have a fixed payout.