Open locked

[Trenton]

Not quite.

Then explain


Show the class your work

[Rare]

Then explain


Show the class your work

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

[FluffNStuff]

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

Sorry, this is not correct, that is the probability of looting 3000 mythics from 1000 crates.
Question, if you flip a coin, what is the chances of getting heads?
Now, what is the chances of getting heads if you flip a coin 10 times.
Note, you just want to get heads at least once, and you flip the same coin 10 times. So, what are your chances that heads will come up at least once?
According to your statement it is 50%, since they are independent flips, but that is not correct. I leave it up to you to answer

[Rare]

Sorry, this is not correct, that is the probability of looting 3000 mythics from 1000 crates.
Question, if you flip a coin, what is the chances of getting heads?
Now, what is the chances of getting heads if you flip a coin 10 times.
Note, you just want to get heads at least once, and you flip the same coin 10 times. So, what are your chances that heads will come up at least once?
According to your statement it is 50%, since they are independent flips, but that is not correct. I leave it up to you to answer

If you flip a coin 10 times you have 10 50% chances it will land on heads. Each flip is independent of another flip. Now, the probability that it will land on tails every single time is low, but it does not change your chance on each individual flip.

In addition to that, I believe your "98.5" is incorrect. Each roll would have a 0.5% chance. What this means is that it is possible to get 3 arcanes or 3 mythics in one crate. But it also mean you can end up with nothing. Given that each crate and roll is indepedent and does not have any effect on the other, there is no relationship between each roll.

If what you are saying is true, at some point you would be garaunteed a mythic or arcane drop. That just simply isn't true.

[FluffNStuff]

If you flip a coin 10 times you have 10 50% chances it will land on heads. Each flip is independent of another flip. Now, the probability that it will land on tails every single time is low, but it does not change your chance on each individual flip.

In addition to that, I believe your "98.5" is incorrect. Each roll would have a 0.5% chance. What this means is that it is possible to get 3 arcanes or 3 mythics in one crate. But it also mean you can end up with nothing. Given that each crate and roll is indepedent and does not have any effect on the other, there is no relationship between each roll.

If what you are saying is true, at some point you would be garaunteed a mythic or arcane drop. That just simply isn't true.

You most definitely are a deadly warrior/rogue, but your lack of respect for math is making me cry

The chances of getting 10 tails in a row is 0.09765625%. This means that to ~not~ get 10 tails in a row, it would be 1- 0.09765625 or 99.902%. That is the chance of getting at least one head in 10 flips.

The 98.5 comes from the fact that each crate contains 3 independent rolls. Each roll has a .5% chance at a mythic and a 99.5% chance at anything else. The chance that you get anything else 3 times in a row is 98.5%. Oh, and the chance that you get 3 mythics from 1 crate is 0.0000125%.

Guaranteed a drop? I guess I used that wrong, because it is NEVER guaranteed. If you open a 1000 crates, your chance at a mythic is 99.999970539356% Notice that it is not 100%, you can STILL NOT GET ONE after 1000, and you CAN GET ONE after only 1.

And remember, this is all based on my wild guess at .5% chance at a mythic. Could be higher or lower, no clue.

[Temarichan]

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

[joshtheboss]

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

How'd you arrive at that conclusion?

[wawawa64]

Sorry I don't think that's mathematically correct, then if you opened a 1000 crates, you'd get 3000 mythics. Lol

It's actually mathematically possible... each crate give you 3 independent rolls, so it's mathematically possible that you get 3000 mythics from 1000 crates, but the probability is like (0.005)^3000 low, assuming each roll gives you .5% of getting a mythic. It's very small, but it's still possible.

[saroeun]

It's actually mathematically possible... each crate give you 3 independent rolls, so it's mathematically possible that you get 3000 mythics from 1000 crates, but the probability is like (0.005)^3000 low, assuming each roll gives you .5% of getting a mythic. It's very small, but it's still possible.

I agree

[Trenton]

You have 3 0.5% chances of looting a mythic per crate. if you open 100 crates you have 300 0.5% chances of looting a mythic. Period. Each roll is not dependend on the other and the probilities do not combine.

If you open 1000 crates... you have 3000 0.5% chances at looting a mythic.

So if someone was dumb enough, there's a CHANCE if they open 50k crates that they could possibly not get a mythic/arcane?

[Rare]

So if someone was dumb enough, there's a CHANCE if they open 50k crates that they could possibly not get a mythic/arcane?

That is 100% correct.

[joshtheboss]

So if someone was dumb enough, there's a CHANCE if they open 50k crates that they could possibly not get a mythic/arcane?

Yes.

[Snakespeare]

Wait... the odds don't change. They remain constant. Each roll of the computer pseudo-random is compared to the constant. The computer does not keep track of the previous rolls. All statistics can give you is a guess at how many attempt, on the average, are needed to have a positive result. But there's no cosmic Law of Averages. Each attempt takes place regardless of the previous results.

[Zanpakuto]

Just for the record, I've opened hundreds during mythic events and didn't get anything. It's all luck

[Trenton]

Wow I'm good in math and can't keep up with this .-.

[IronMonkey]

I'm not good in Math but I'm betting my 100 gold on Aedenos on this. The player's rants before when crates and hammerjaw were introduced support this logic. They have opened 1000+ crates and nothing, while some players have opened a couple and got it.

[Xxxxzero]

Good luck to those who are opening these crates. From my personal experience I farmed 260 crates total, order my platinum, then cleared my inventory then started opening like crazy. In the end I ended up with no mythic or arcane items, and very little plat. The legendary items I obtained i couldn't even sell for more than 10k. You can do the math on how much REAL money that took and I ended up with nothing. So good luck to those who are opening crates. All just seems like a scam to take your money.
-Zero

[saroeun]

Good luck to those who are opening these crates. From my personal experience I farmed 260 crates total, order my platinum, then cleared my inventory then started opening like crazy. In the end I ended up with no mythic or arcane items, and very little plat. The legendary items I obtained i couldn't even sell for more than 10k. You can do the math on how much REAL money that took and I ended up with nothing. So good luck to those who are opening crates. All just seems like a scam to take your money.
-Zero

I'm strongly agree...
I always thought that why don't have Arcane Item from farm... Only small good item got from farm...

[Lord Souldancer]

I spent alot of RL $ and tons of time on promos and man I opened hundreds of crates and I have made some moment got one arcane item and a few mythics, I like that the devs keep the high end items hard to get, but man I opened 50ish one time and bonechill was the best I got owell, maybe they could loosen it up a tiny bit just saying

[saroeun]

I spent alot of RL $ and tons of time on promos and man I opened hundreds of crates and I have made some moment got one arcane item and a few mythics, I like that the devs keep the high end items hard to get, but man I opened 50ish one time and bonechill was the best I got owell, maybe they could loosen it up a tiny bit just saying

Oh.... Sound so hard to get Arcane Item: How much U spend flatium?