The "Bell Curve" and how it applies (or should apply) to AL.....

[Energizeric]

I'm sure all of you are either currently in school or have attended school in the past, and most of you have taken a class at some point where the grades were given based on the bell curve. The idea of the bell curve is that the majority of players fall in the "average" area, and only a few on the top end, and a few on the bottom end. Here is a picture of what that looks like:




To keep the game healthy, STS should control supplies of items, drop rates, and plat based items in a way that should preserve the bell curve. Once that becomes out of wack, and the high end starts to swell too much, then hardcore players will begin to lose interest as it will not be challenging enough. On the other hand, if the high end is too small of a sample, then players will find it hopeless and will also lose interest.

In talking about gear, I would say the "average" area should be those using Legendary gear, the 14% orange area on the high end should be mythic users, and the 2% blue area on the high end should be arcane users. On the low end the 14% orange area should be epic users, and the 2% blue area should be rare users.

Just a reminder to everyone who complains about items being too common or too rare. If you think that things are off compared to a proper bell curve, then perhaps your complaint is legitimate. But if your complaint is more based on your unhappiness on where you place on the bell curve, then the issue is with your performance in the game and not with STS and drop rates, rarities, etc.

[Frohnatur]

If I could I would give you all of my daily 'thanks'.

People, please, please, please understand this principle. If you did, half of the posts here in the forums obsolete. If you want to understand how this applies to your personal situation in AL please just try to see every thing, every patch, rule, measurement, rate, price, solution, mechanism, limit and whatnot from different angles. In the end you will find, that most of the stuff you are complaining about is bs.

[Instanthumor]

It'd be cool if somewhere in the game, there'd be a place where STS would literally tell you what section you'd place according to skill level (this would be tough), skill, etc. I also understand how hard it can be to implement this in game, though. But even if this is implemented, it shouldn't be able to be shown to the public, for that boosts 'not supposed to be boosted' egos. Just throwing this out there.

[Crowsfoot]

I won't lie, my one complaint with most of your posts is this: Where are you getting your figures?!?

My immidiate issues:

1) what are your percents based off?

2) what is your nonrounded figures?

3) if you are going to claim such precise figures, where is your percent error?

If you are simply explaining a basic bell curve, (which may be your original intent but the last paragraph skewed that vibe) I must disagree with your reasoning.

A bell curve shows absolute balance, where as a more accurate model will show extreme fluxuation for the in between periods where players have just started upgrading there gear to mythics.

Additionally, I would imagine that level should be a factor for judging player skill. For this reason you may want a regression graph to better illustrate the distribution of "skill."

Finally, I would question why you have the unskilled players section so thin? Many people will download the game and play casually which creates the vast market of low level eggs. I would believe that the majority of players would fall into the unskilled end of the scale, rather than the perfect balance illustrated.

[ChillyPepper]

1st of all u said: hardcore players would lose interest... those are the ones who pay the most

2nd of all, u should control yourself and how much u play, not sts...

so please people think about what are you posting... .-.

24lvl mage- chillypepper

[Linkincena]

This is a pay for items game...
I don't think Bell curve applies bcos u can't control them from purchasing good items...
Just a thought. ..

In our organisation where I work..
Bell curves are used I appraisal systems. .. which decides how many promotions need to be done...
Here the control is fully in the hands of upper management. ..

In the case of game... this can't be controlled since u cannot take away items, gold or platinum from players. ..

[Energizeric]

If you are simply explaining a basic bell curve, (which may be your original intent but the last paragraph skewed that vibe) I must disagree with your reasoning.

A bell curve shows absolute balance, where as a more accurate model will show extreme fluxuation for the in between periods where players have just started upgrading there gear to mythics.

Additionally, I would imagine that level should be a factor for judging player skill. For this reason you may want a regression graph to better illustrate the distribution of "skill."

Yes, I was explaining the basic bell curve and how I believe it should apply to the game. And I was not talking about the bell curve in relation to skill, but rather in relation to item rarity and gear, and who has what. I was talking about the game economy.

1st of all u said: hardcore players would lose interest... those are the ones who pay the most

2nd of all, u should control yourself and how much u play, not sts...

so please people think about what are you posting... .-.

STS controls the drop rates of items and the plat prices of plat purchased items. So by manipulating these drop rates and plat prices, they can indeed control the rarity of all items in the game. Lower drop rates and fewer players will have those items. Raise the plat price, and fewer players will purchase them. Raise drop rates and more players will have those items. Lower the plat price, and more players will purchase them. It is within their power to control how rare or common every item is, and as such they can do their best to keep the economics of the game close to that of a bell curve.

This is a pay for items game...
I don't think Bell curve applies bcos u can't control them from purchasing good items...
Just a thought. ..

In the case of game... this can't be controlled since u cannot take away items, gold or platinum from players. ..

STS sets the plat price of items. If they make an item more expensive, fewer players will purchase it. If they make an item less expensive, more players will purchase it. So yes, even though players buy items for plat, they can still control the rarity of that item.

For example, the latest popular plat item is essences. Right now essences are 10 for 10 plat, so 1 plat each. What do you think would happen to the rarity of essences if they lowered that price to 1 plat for 10 essences? Or if they raised the price to 100 plat for 10 essences? I think you would see a huge swing in how many gems were for sale in the auction, and what the asking price of those gems would be.

As for gold, the supply of gold in the game has little effect on the bell curve of the economy. If there is more gold, then gold becomes devalued from inflation, and if there is less gold, then gold becomes more valuable and we have deflation. Either way, all of the items will adjust themselves to the proper gold value. But having more or less gold does not change how many of each item is in existence within the game. Only STS can control that.

[Linkincena]

Yes, I was explaining the basic bell curve and how I believe it should apply to the game. And I was not talking about the bell curve in relation to skill, but rather in relation to item rarity and gear, and who has what. I was talking about the game economy.




STS controls the drop rates of items and the plat prices of plat purchased items. So by manipulating these drop rates and plat prices, they can indeed control the rarity of all items in the game. Lower drop rates and fewer players will have those items. Raise the plat price, and fewer players will purchase them. Raise drop rates and more players will have those items. Lower the plat price, and more players will purchase them. It is within their power to control how rare or common every item is, and as such they can do their best to keep the economics of the game close to that of a bell curve.




STS sets the plat price of items. If they make an item more expensive, fewer players will purchase it. If they make an item less expensive, more players will purchase it. So yes, even though players buy items for plat, they can still control the rarity of that item.

For example, the latest popular plat item is essences. Right now essences are 10 for 10 plat, so 1 plat each. What do you think would happen to the rarity of essences if they lowered that price to 1 plat for 10 essences? Or if they raised the price to 100 plat for 10 essences? I think you would see a huge swing in how many gems were for sale in the auction, and what the asking price of those gems would be.

As for gold, the supply of gold in the game has little effect on the bell curve of the economy. If there is more gold, then gold becomes devalued from inflation, and if there is less gold, then gold becomes more valuable and we have deflation. Either way, all of the items will adjust themselves to the proper gold value. But having more or less gold does not change how many of each item is in existence within the game. Only STS can control that.

So here we derive 3 things:

1. Control on items by STG to keep players interested amd keep going...
2. Plat cost is made affordable so that all can have ability to purchase them... ( This depends upon country to country cos dollar is not same value everywhere. ..).. here also is the control on there cost.. STG keeps changing the price via plat sales to see the effects and control their profits. ..
3. Gold flow is controlled through enemies' drops, player bans ( for excess transfers) and plat to gold purchase costs...

So these 3 factors go into contributing to the shape of your bell curve...

Now the only way to change the shape of your bell curve is to purchase plats and force it towards high performers...
Or everyone lose interest and push it towards low performance. ..

STG keeps watch on this 24x7 I suppose. ..
One guy I know is best on this is H2N... who keeps eye on these

[dilaudid25]

I lost interest in being an "endgamer" . I have two "master of magic" banners as well as ctf and tdm kills and flags. As far as items go, one doesn't need the best gear to do very well in this game. Your bell curve example is great. Some people just don't have as much skill as others. I'm twinkling pvp now because endgame is so boring. It is just farming pve kills and finding rare bosses who are easy to kill. There isn't much skill required to stay in the top 25 in one's class once you get there. For this reason somebody else can have my "master of magic" banner for season 5. Also, I can't believe how many other endgamers can keep going. They made pvp all flag rooms where the endangers just flag all day for achievement points. There is rarely a good battle. I remember earning all 3 of my bannerman's standard and now people just chat and flag. It's pathetic actually in my opinion. Some people are so afraid they might fall down a spot on the leaderboard so "they" ruined pvp for those who earn their ap. But, again because of the bell curve maybe these players really aren't that great at the game they are just good at manipulating the leaderboards.

[dilaudid25]

This is why I like twinking pvp. Good items are much more rare keeping it fun. The old level caps have a lot of common "good" gear so pvp is boring at those levels. If you are like me, bored of endgaming, and just want to have fun fighting twink at a mid level like 18 or 19. It's really fun and pretty well balanced. It's like how pvp was when it first came out. Fun. It also isn't as easy as individuals may think it is. Remember you aren't at the cap so if you are equal skill or in some cases better skill you will die simply because of the math. I also learned from twinking that a lot of them don't use the cs. A lot of items are traded. This is in part because some only have twinks and can't farm loot from elite levels. This is also due to the fact that there are a handful of players who manipulate the prices in the cs. STS finally got rid of one of those players, but there are many more.

[Crowsfoot]

Yes, I was explaining the basic bell curve and how I believe it should apply to the game. And I was not talking about the bell curve in relation to skill, but rather in relation to item rarity and gear, and who has what. I was talking about the game economy.

Your X-axis is performance. Hence why I suggested a regression graph.