Double odds event Locked crates

[aarrgggggg]

Those Double odd elondorian locked crates actually dont have double odds........
How so u ask?

Well if u needed 2 regular locked crates to create 1 elondorian locked crate than it would be regular odds
But since we need 3 regular locked crates to create 1 elondorian locked the actual odds of getting new mythics is lower than compared to past mythic events.

The double odds is a complete fallacy, they should be called elondorian .75 odds event chests

[Zeus]

Ignore the locked crate price and it actually works out just fine. You cannot have your cake and eat it too...

[FluffNStuff]

Ignore the locked crate price and it actually works out just fine. You cannot have your cake and eat it too...

Ignore the plat price also and they are completely free. #2KX3 for everyone!

[Serancha]

Ignore the locked crate price and it actually works out just fine. You cannot have your cake and eat it too...

Says the guy running a cake shop and getting fat on icing...

[Zeus]

Says the guy running a cake shop and getting fat on icing...

Lol, you think I invest in crates? Penny stocks are bleh.

[Morholt]

Your math is flawed.

1x 10% chance gives you better odds than 2x 5% chances.

[Serancha]

Lol, you think I invest in crates? Penny stocks are bleh.

Actually it wasn't to do with crates, but the irony of you, of all people, saying that nobody can have it all.

[deadcobain]

Says the guy running a cake shop and getting fat on icing...

[aarrgggggg]

Your math is flawed.

1x 10% chance gives you better odds than 2x 5% chances.

i disagree, and remember u get 1 chance per each locked, so more locked means more chances, not to mention all the other things that are sellable in locked when u dont get the mythic....arcanes, eggs and whatever else

[Zeus]

Actually it wasn't to do with crates, but the irony of you, of all people, saying that nobody can have it all.

What are you referring to? Assets?

People wanted double odds and have been asking for a while. So, let them have it. It has to have some sort of consequence - especially in an event with a lifespan of three weeks. If you play your cards right and prepare in advance, this event should not cost you the melodramatics that everybody is predicting.

If people do not like Locked Crates of Elondria, they are also welcome to farm Entangled chests & Elondrian spirit chests. These take less time than the previous tarlok event to craft so even if one participates in the event for free, they should be able to rack up a good amount of these chests to sell or open (should they feel lucky).

Remember, this event is three weeks long. If people recall, the previous mythic weekend did disasters for the economy. This time, it is isolating it to those that are wealthy enough to open the crates or to those that took precautions so that they could open these crates without ridiculous expenses.

PS:
Essences can be farmed in normal maps as well. So, this isn't all too different from a system that we currently have. The only thing that will be different is that in the first few days, there were be little to no supply. As a result, prices will reflect the limited supply. As more people play, free players should be able to play without forking over a fortune of gold.

[Energizeric]

I don't really get what people are complaining about. All I can guess is many of those complaining are not very mathematically inclined. If you do the math, this system is better than the old locked crate system. It was also previously stated that the old mythic armors and helms are being removed from these new locked crates, so not only is the chance of a mythic doubled, but there is also a much better chance at mythic weapons since the old mythics are not part of the drop table.

[xcainnblecterx]

I don't really get what people are complaining about. All I can guess is many of those complaining are not very mathematically inclined. If you do the math, this system is better than the old locked crate system. It was also previously stated that the old mythic armors and helms are being removed from these new locked crates, so not only is the chance of a mythic doubled, but there is also a much better chance at mythic weapons since the old mythics are not part of the drop table.

Hey now, im very mathematically inclined and yet im not complainin. Ima just go with the flow and what happens happens. As.for event being 3 weeks long with a double odds for new crates i see new mythics being quite cheap though since everyone goin be cuttin everyone tryin make that money

[Crowsfoot]

Your math is flawed.

1x 10% chance gives you better odds than 2x 5% chances.

The reason is the "termination of past trials" because opening a crate is a matter of probability, you cannot evenly multiply your odds by the number of trials. If a flip a perfectly balances coin 500 times and it lands heads every time, it still has a 1/2 chance of being heads or tails the next time I flip it because the previous trials do not effect future outcomes. There are several "equations" to model the exact outcome probability (I stress several).

There is no true answer to the odds of looting a specific item by opening 2 locks other than less than that of opening a single lock with double odds of looting that item.

[Morholt]

i disagree, and remember u get 1 chance per each locked, so more locked means more chances, not to mention all the other things that are sellable in locked when u dont get the mythic....arcanes, eggs and whatever else

Your initial post was in regards to the probability of looting new mythic items, and that's what my response was to.

But since you want to talk profitability...hmmm, that's an interesting point. Those double odds have the old mythic armor/helm removed, so that's a boost in your mythic weapon chance, if you roll to loot a mythic in the first place. The odds of a mythic weapon are going to be appealing.
With crates' normal odds...looting an arcane is next to impossible. So, it's hard to consider those for profiting (especially if you don't get Samael or the Shard). That's a big, big luck factor. Remember, mythic normal odds are already much better than arcane. So, with increased odds of mythic weapons...shooting for more chances at an arcane shard is probably less profitable.
I'd start out the event trying to open double odds crates first, while the weapons are worth their most. If the weapons ever reach lower than the 10 m point, and you still need the Red Letter Day AP, start opening the normal ones.

The reason is the "termination of past trials" because opening a crate is a matter of probability, you cannot evenly multiply your odds by the number of trials. If a flip a perfectly balances coin 500 times and it lands heads every time, it still has a 1/2 chance of being heads or tails the next time I flip it because the previous trials do not effect future outcomes. There are several "equations" to model the exact outcome probability (I stress several).

There is no true answer to the odds of looting a specific item by opening 2 locks other than less than that of opening a single lock with double odds of looting that item.

Thanks for adding the explanation. A lot of people seem to think their previous attempts makes them 'due' for a win, which simply isn't true.

For those who don't understand parts of what Crow said: imagine a coin. If it lands heads, you get a mythic. Would you rather flip it twice, or flip it once with double odds? With double odds, you obviously have a better chance at getting your mythic (as it is 100%). However, your other option does not guarantee you a mythic, but it does offer you the possibility of more mythics in total, while also offering a chance at less mythics. Your individual decision on which way you want to go is up to yourself; just know that you have a better chance of walking away a winner with the double odds.

Of course, it's different when talking about real mythic chances. In the past, I've shown that 1/200 each roll of a crate for normal mythic odds is possibly a high guess. But let's pretend the actual chance*
is 1/200. Would you prefer to try two attempts of 1/200, or one of 1/100? Personally, I'd go for 1/100 chance.
And remember, folks, 200 attempts of 1/200 doesn't mean your 200th attempt will be any different/better than your first attempt.

[basketholic209]

Your initial post was in regards to the probability of looting new mythic items, and that's what my response was to.

But since you want to talk profitability...hmmm, that's an interesting point. Those double odds have the old mythic armor/helm removed, so that's a boost in your mythic weapon chance, if you roll to loot a mythic in the first place. The odds of a mythic weapon are going to be appealing.
With crates' normal odds...looting an arcane is next to impossible. So, it's hard to consider those for profiting (especially if you don't get Samael or the Shard). That's a big, big luck factor. Remember, mythic normal odds are already much better than arcane. So, with increased odds of mythic weapons...shooting for more chances at an arcane shard is probably less profitable.
I'd start out the event trying to open double odds crates first, while the weapons are worth their most. If the weapons ever reach lower than the 10 m point, and you still need the Red Letter Day AP, start opening the normal ones.



Thanks for adding the explanation. A lot of people seem to think their previous attempts makes them 'due' for a win, which simply isn't true.

For those who don't understand parts of what Crow said: imagine a coin. If it lands heads, you get a mythic. Would you rather flip it twice, or flip it once with double odds? With double odds, you obviously have a better chance at getting your mythic (as it is 100%). However, your other option does not guarantee you a mythic, but it does offer you the possibility of more mythics in total, while also offering a chance at less mythics. Your individual decision on which way you want to go is up to yourself; just know that you have a better chance of walking away a winner with the double odds.

Of course, it's different when talking about real mythic chances. In the past, I've shown that 1/200 each roll of a crate for normal mythic odds is possibly a high guess. But let's pretend the actual chance*
is 1/200. Would you prefer to try two attempts of 1/200, or one of 1/100? Personally, I'd go for 1/100 chance.
And remember, folks, 200 attempts of 1/200 doesn't mean your 200th attempt will be any different/better than your first attempt.

I, myself, would go for 2 × 1/200 as it is statistically the same as 1 × 1/100, because if I get all junks, at least i get double junks

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[Doomreaper]

2 x 0% is the same as 1 x 0%


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[Rare]

I don't really get what people are complaining about. All I can guess is many of those complaining are not very mathematically inclined. If you do the math, this system is better than the old locked crate system. It was also previously stated that the old mythic armors and helms are being removed from these new locked crates, so not only is the chance of a mythic doubled, but there is also a much better chance at mythic weapons since the old mythics are not part of the drop table.

Math shmath. I'm ready to spam my crates with zero effort. As has been the way since crates came into existence. This game has made me lazy. Dont blame me for that.

Your "mathematics" also doesn't factor in time. Right now, my time is worth a lot more than this platinum. So this is bad for me.

[Energizeric]

So for all of you who would prefer to spend 30 plat on 2 regular locked crates instead of 15 plat on an event crate, this is what you do.....

1) sell your 2 locked crates for about 8k each. That will give you 16k

2) take 15 plat and buy 3-4 energy kits

3) sell those energy kits for 15k each in the auction. This will yield you around 45-60k

4) Now you will have 61k-76k gold. Take that gold and you should be able to buy an event crate, and probably will have some change leftover.

5) Use your other 15 plat to open the event crate

Problem solved!

[Rare]

Too much effort

[FluffNStuff]

There is no true answer to the odds of looting a specific item by opening 2 locks other than less than that of opening a single lock with double odds of looting that item.

p = probability of looting the item.
2p = probability of looting the item with double odds.
2p - p^2 = probability of looting the item by opening 2 crates.
So the difference is the probability squared. This means that the higher the probability, the higher your odds are from opening one crate versus opening 2. This is also why double mythic causes a flood and double arcane do not.

Examples:
20% Chance (I wish!) :
Double Odds - 40%, Two Crates - 36% Chance.
10% Chance - Double Odds - 20%, Two Crates - 19%
5% Chance - Double Odds - 10%, Two Crates - 9.75%

Arcanity:
2% Chance - Double Odds - 4% Chance, Two - 3.6%
1% Chance - Double Odds - 2% Chance, Two - 1.9%

Note, this is assuming a percent chance for the crate and it may be different if it takes 3 Double Odds vs 6 Regular Odds which is what actually happens with this scenario. Might look into that next.