Please Explain What Has Happened With Crates

[DuhSensasian]

ill back conrad up on this. i was one who spent 20k plats in the first week of the expansion and made around 80m. looting 3 gold toor and countless arcane shards fossil, about 10 maridos and toor. after my success i told conrad it was time for him to be popping crates. and he had great success as well. but about a week later, i invested 15m back into massive and completely lost. conrad then pm me saying that now is not a good time to be popping crates. i totally agree that the drop rate is mega nerfed, it feel like arcane is back where it should be though, with the title of actual "arcane"

[Niixed]

ill back conrad up on this. i was one who spent 20k plats in the first week of the expansion and made around 80m. looting 3 gold toor and countless arcane shards fossil, about 10 maridos and toor. after my success i told conrad it was time for him to be popping crates. and he had great success as well. but about a week later, i invested 15m back into massive and completely lost. conrad then pm me saying that now is not a good time to be popping crates. i totally agree that the drop rate is mega nerfed, it feel like arcane is back where it should be though, with the title of actual "arcane"

Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.

1. Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
2. Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.

Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?

[Edward Coug]

Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.

1. Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
2. Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.

Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?

Yes, if the system limits how many items of a certain type can drop from locks during a given period of time. This would explain why the arcane drops were so high at first, but then tailed off as more arcanes were obtained.

[FluffNStuff]

Most locked openers would agree with you I'd assume. There's two conflicting viewpoints.

1. Locked openers who opened locked spanning the few weeks have all experienced a dramatic increase in their personal drop rates one week followed by a precipitous drop the following week. This experience is widely shared, but empirically unconfirmed.
2. Developers have stated on multiple occasions the locked drop rates haven't change in their system since June 30. Also, drop rates are closely and dutifully monitored by a robust system so developers would know immediately if something were amiss.

Players' personal experiences are totally contradicting the fact that the locked crate system has been operating in exactly the same manner since June 30th. Players have compared notes and now believe there is overwhelming evidence pointing to a change in the system. Developers also have overwhelming evidence proving the system has not been changed.

SOOOO... why can't we Sherlock this? Aka: If you eliminate the impossible whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!

TRUTH (in this case): The locked drop rate has not been altered since 6/30, but there has been a dramatic change in the personal drop rate of every player who has consistently opened locked since the expansion began.

Is there anything that could explain this seemingly contradictory situation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regres...oward_the_mean

With the sheer numbers of players opening the new locks, some of them will experience odds crushing luck. Those that experienced it are now returning to normal luck. Others that experienced soul destroying luck will either have their luck returned to normal, or more likely stop opening out of sadness. Either way, the ones we are hearing from are those that had luck far above the mean, but just because they are the majority of the ones we are hearing from does not in any way make them an actual majority of openers.

[Kakashis]

Yeah in the first week, many of my friends looted red items. As of lately and today, success rate is far from fruitful. Seems like something perhaps a bug has occurred.

[Endeavorian]

i only opened one massive, got a gold toor a shard sooo... that was cool

[Bless]

Also we do have a front row seat to the birth of every Arcane item. We track them all to keep a careful eye on how many are coming into the game. Basically this is us:

Attachment 135744

In my 5 years of STG games/forums, that is for me the funniest thing a dev has ever said LOL

[conradev]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regres...oward_the_mean

With the sheer numbers of players opening the new locks, some of them will experience odds crushing luck. Those that experienced it are now returning to normal luck. Others that experienced soul destroying luck will either have their luck returned to normal, or more likely stop opening out of sadness. Either way, the ones we are hearing from are those that had luck far above the mean, but just because they are the majority of the ones we are hearing from does not in any way make them an actual majority of openers.

This is a good theory, but does not apply to this case, as I have not encountered a single mass crate opener who did not experience better odds and I think the market proved this...the market tanked for shards and fossils, that hasnt happened before, therefore this can be thrown out.

[Arpluvial]

Hey guys,

We realize that there are a lot of questions regarding crates. The team is always listening, but please make sure to keep posts friendly and constructive.

[conradev]

...I'm too real for gaming

[e'dria♡]

wow i cant believe you literally opened that kind of amount of locks and got nothing on 800 or so. LOL

Personally, ive opened a numerous of massives and got 5 belts, shard, fossils and got big amount of plats back.
I even looted them on 2-3 crates, i don think the odds are bad at all, its enough.