Market Crash Feedback and Concerns

[CouchPass]

Hey guys, so with the "egg market" crash.. everyone is referring to it as a wave of prices falling down, which will eventually pick itself back up.. But to my knowledge, when arcanes hit 900k, right after event ended, that's only the FIRST wave of a market crash. Many people are hoarding mythics and arcanes to sell for a lower price, I can't blame them either, it's usually a smart way to make a profit. Only one thing though, this type of situation is different right? This is what I think is is going to happen/ is already in the process of happening:

Event starts, everyone sells everything they loot before prices drop
More and more people selling, till prices drop TOO low
Now people realize they could be making more money if they hoard eggs to sell later for profit
^While that's happening people are simultaneously opening eggs to complete AP's and get a good deal to max out stable
Now it's the end of event, and people are hoarding more, prices start raising themselves up..
Here is when I think it's a mock success, the egg market is "bluffing" if you want to call it that
Now a few days/weeks after event ends, people start selling eggs for "profit", but uh oh, demand is low because people already bought eggs while cheap
Since demand is low, and the market is being flooded with hoarded/unwanted eggs, prices will drop again
Brace yourselfs, the second market crash is happening now

This is my idea of whats going to happen, and no I'm not complaining about market crashes. I am grateful for this event . I just want to know if my suspicions will be confirmed.. Am I over thinking it guys? Or am I on the right track

Thanks for putting up with my loosely formed thoughts haha

[Energizeric]

Yeah, this has happened with other items after every event over the past year.

In the first 2 years of AL, there were only a few events, and during that time only a few smart merchants thought to buy up event gear to sell after the event. After the first Tarlok event, I can remember buying the Tarlok warrior armors and helms for less than 1k each, and selling them 3 months later for 50k+ each. (Back then warrior was the most popular class, and warrior gear sold for more than rogue or sorcerer gear)

The problem is, many other players apparently noticed what me and a few other merchants did. So beginning with the first Goblin event, I noticed that prices initially spiked right after the event was over due to everyone wanting to become a merchant and stash some items away for future selling. The problem is that when you have too many merchants, all you need is a few who are willing to sell cheap and prices start to crash. And that is what happened about a week after that first Goblin event. Prices came back down, and were even lower than during the event.

Three or four players who hoard an item can control the market somewhat and keep the price high, even if there is no communication between them. With the Tarlok gear back in early 2014, I never spoke to any other merchants about pricing. We just all seemed to respect each other and never undercut each other by any significant amount.

But when you have dozens of players hoarding the same items, that control is lost, and prices will fall when players decide to sell unless there is demand for these items among the player base.

[CouchPass]

Yeah, this has happened with other items after every event over the past year.

In the first 2 years of AL, there were only a few events, and during that time only a few smart merchants thought to buy up event gear to sell after the event. After the first Tarlok event, I can remember buying the Tarlok warrior armors and helms for less than 1k each, and selling them 3 months later for 50k+ each.

The problem is, many other players apparently noticed what me and a few other merchants did. So beginning with the first Goblin event, I noticed that prices initially spiked right after the event was over due to everyone wanting to become a merchant and stash some items away for future selling. The problem is that when you have too many merchants, all you need is a few who are willing to sell cheap and prices start to crash. And that is what happened about a week after that first Goblin event. Prices came back down, and were even lower than during the event.

Three or four players who hoard an item can control the market somewhat and keep the price high, even if there is no communication between them. With the Tarlok gear back in early 2014, I never spoke to any other merchants about pricing. We just all seemed to respect each other and never undercut each other by any significant amount.

But when you have dozens of players hoarding the same items, that control is lost, and prices will fall when players decide to sell unless there is demand for these items among the player base.

Thanks for the info , I am not scared of the market crashes in any way. STS had to have seen this coming, and they probably have a back up plan. I only made this thread to give some insight on what MIGHT happen, I don't want people complaining about how STS screwed up the economy, when they should shoulder some blame too.