Market Crash Feedback and Concerns

[Energizeric]

Crate prices of massive cyrostar are already up 16k from their low when I bought into a lot of them, and many eggs are already recovering extremely well. The only people complaining about the lower arcane prices are the 1%....

Prices are not "already recovering extremely well". What has happened (and what always happens right after an event) is that the same 1% you complain about are actually attempting to merch and so many of them have bought up eggs and are continuing to buy up eggs. That keeps the price artificially high. Then what will happen in a few more days is they will stop buying them up and attempt to sell. When that happens, you will then find out the real market price for these.

Unfortunately there is nothing you can do with an egg except hatch it. And for many of these pets, there are far more eggs in circulation than there are active players who want to add that pet to their stable. And that means we are going to see the price collapse at some point. Merchants are only going to buy and sell the same egg so many times without profit before they dump them all on the market.

With Klaas giving out free Deary, Cerella, Alejandro (and a few more) pet eggs, we have seen the prices of those pets collapse to where you cannot even sell them for 500 gold. With this event now finished, there are going to be another 30 or 40 eggs that will be priced very similarly, and that is not good for farming.

[Zeus]

The entire economy has not collapsed... Crate prices of massive cyrostar are already up 16k from their low when I bought into a lot of them, and many eggs are already recovering extremely well. The only people complaining about the lower arcane prices are the 1% on AL who controlled the prices of arcanes such as SNS/Nekro and ripped everyone off by overpricing them. I have no pity for them, and in fact I wish event would go on longer so they lost more gold...

Please read post #8.

Energizer is absolutely correct. You'll see the REAL prices about a week after the event. Right now, I know of 3 people dumping about 600M each into the egg market to keep prices up.

[Betheren]

Please read post #8.

Energizer is absolutely correct. You'll see the REAL prices about a week after the event. Right now, I know of 3 people dumping about 600M each into the egg market to keep prices up.

Well that is smart of them to buy the eggs while they are so cheap. That's what I did too during the event. If prices fall again all good merchers know to buy up the eggs and hold onto them. But then again I guess there are the noobs who panic and sell. Reminds me of trading in the real stock market. Some of your best investments you will ever make are when people are panicking and acting illogically as a result.

[fajaratulnaj]

Ahh stop crying lol everyone can enjoy this game and old player will interested to come back XP

[Zeus]

Well that is smart of them to buy the eggs while they are so cheap. That's what I did too during the event. If prices fall again all good merchers know to buy up the eggs and hold onto them. But then again I guess there are the noobs who panic and sell. Reminds me of trading in the real stock market. Some of your best investments you will ever make are when people are panicking and acting illogically as a result.

Correct.

After, thought, there's the real panic. In the stock market, considering I invest in stocks that I won't disclose, there are two types of free falls. Initially, there is the panic sell, then there is the true fall which happens after investors try to save the stock. This is what happens here and is when the smartest investors will invest to maximize their profit margins.

[Energizeric]

What will be necessary to keep the prices of many of these eggs at a decent level is for enough new players to enter the game over the coming months, and buy these eggs and hatch them. If the eggs sit in inventory and do not get hatched, trust me when I say that the price will fall to nothing in time.

My idea here is to give everyone an incentive to hatch more eggs, since I'm not sure enough new players are joining AL on a regular basis to allow prices to rebound on their own.

[CouchPass]

Hey guys, so with the "egg market" crash.. everyone is referring to it as a wave of prices falling down, which will eventually pick itself back up.. But to my knowledge, when arcanes hit 900k, right after event ended, that's only the FIRST wave of a market crash. Many people are hoarding mythics and arcanes to sell for a lower price, I can't blame them either, it's usually a smart way to make a profit. Only one thing though, this type of situation is different right? This is what I think is is going to happen/ is already in the process of happening:

Event starts, everyone sells everything they loot before prices drop
More and more people selling, till prices drop TOO low
Now people realize they could be making more money if they hoard eggs to sell later for profit
^While that's happening people are simultaneously opening eggs to complete AP's and get a good deal to max out stable
Now it's the end of event, and people are hoarding more, prices start raising themselves up..
Here is when I think it's a mock success, the egg market is "bluffing" if you want to call it that
Now a few days/weeks after event ends, people start selling eggs for "profit", but uh oh, demand is low because people already bought eggs while cheap
Since demand is low, and the market is being flooded with hoarded/unwanted eggs, prices will drop again
Brace yourselfs, the second market crash is happening now

This is my idea of whats going to happen, and no I'm not complaining about market crashes. I am grateful for this event . I just want to know if my suspicions will be confirmed.. Am I over thinking it guys? Or am I on the right track

Thanks for putting up with my loosely formed thoughts haha

[Energizeric]

Yeah, this has happened with other items after every event over the past year.

In the first 2 years of AL, there were only a few events, and during that time only a few smart merchants thought to buy up event gear to sell after the event. After the first Tarlok event, I can remember buying the Tarlok warrior armors and helms for less than 1k each, and selling them 3 months later for 50k+ each. (Back then warrior was the most popular class, and warrior gear sold for more than rogue or sorcerer gear)

The problem is, many other players apparently noticed what me and a few other merchants did. So beginning with the first Goblin event, I noticed that prices initially spiked right after the event was over due to everyone wanting to become a merchant and stash some items away for future selling. The problem is that when you have too many merchants, all you need is a few who are willing to sell cheap and prices start to crash. And that is what happened about a week after that first Goblin event. Prices came back down, and were even lower than during the event.

Three or four players who hoard an item can control the market somewhat and keep the price high, even if there is no communication between them. With the Tarlok gear back in early 2014, I never spoke to any other merchants about pricing. We just all seemed to respect each other and never undercut each other by any significant amount.

But when you have dozens of players hoarding the same items, that control is lost, and prices will fall when players decide to sell unless there is demand for these items among the player base.

[CouchPass]

Yeah, this has happened with other items after every event over the past year.

In the first 2 years of AL, there were only a few events, and during that time only a few smart merchants thought to buy up event gear to sell after the event. After the first Tarlok event, I can remember buying the Tarlok warrior armors and helms for less than 1k each, and selling them 3 months later for 50k+ each.

The problem is, many other players apparently noticed what me and a few other merchants did. So beginning with the first Goblin event, I noticed that prices initially spiked right after the event was over due to everyone wanting to become a merchant and stash some items away for future selling. The problem is that when you have too many merchants, all you need is a few who are willing to sell cheap and prices start to crash. And that is what happened about a week after that first Goblin event. Prices came back down, and were even lower than during the event.

Three or four players who hoard an item can control the market somewhat and keep the price high, even if there is no communication between them. With the Tarlok gear back in early 2014, I never spoke to any other merchants about pricing. We just all seemed to respect each other and never undercut each other by any significant amount.

But when you have dozens of players hoarding the same items, that control is lost, and prices will fall when players decide to sell unless there is demand for these items among the player base.

Thanks for the info , I am not scared of the market crashes in any way. STS had to have seen this coming, and they probably have a back up plan. I only made this thread to give some insight on what MIGHT happen, I don't want people complaining about how STS screwed up the economy, when they should shoulder some blame too.

[Suentous PO]

What will be necessary to keep the prices of many of these eggs at a decent level is for enough new players to enter the game over the coming months, and buy these eggs and hatch them. If the eggs sit in inventory and do not get hatched, trust me when I say that the price will fall to nothing in time.

My idea here is to give everyone an incentive to hatch more eggs, since I'm not sure enough new players are joining AL on a regular basis to allow prices to rebound on their own.

Which significant eggs do you expect a new player to buy? Between potions jewels, and gear to level up I never had a budget for pets when I came back. That was like steak to my Raman budget starting over. The hand to mouth aspect is underestimated by older players.
That's why I pointed out that ap's mean nothing to new players.

[Energizeric]

Which significant eggs do you expect a new player to buy? Between potions jewels, and gear to level up I never had a budget for pets when I came back. That was like steak to my Raman budget starting over. The hand to mouth aspect is underestimated by older players.
That's why I pointed out that ap's mean nothing to new players.

All the more reason that my suggestion should be implemented. It will cause older veteran players to hatch more eggs -- most do NOT have 100+ pets in their stable, but many will work towards that if APs are involved, especially with egg prices cheap as they are now.

[Ydra]

All the more reason that my suggestion should be implemented. It will cause older veteran players to hatch more eggs -- most do NOT have 100+ pets in their stable, but many will work towards that if APs are involved, especially with egg prices cheap as they are now.

100% agree with this.
Most players are happy with 1 good pet.
The only way I see to increase the demand on several eggs (and remove them from the market) somewhat evenly would be the new achievement suggestions.

[Ydra]

STS back at it again inundating the market with high tier items! :