Wow my prediction was wayyy off.
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Wow my prediction was wayyy off.
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The most constructive comment/explanation so far in my opinion. Agreed with you to not buy many expensive items, especially the hyper-inflated combo with price-manipulated items like rare vanities and LB vanities. More selling will indeed push prices down.Originally Posted by Redjellydonut
My question is how do you deal with hoarders of items you want/need to buy then? Would love to hear your take on this
It's called manipulation. This is how it works. A few people decide to manipulate an item. Buy the cheap ones and relist for much more. If someone undersells then buy it. People then actually fall for it because they are used to it. I mean used to overpricing. When they see something for 10x the price, oh it's inflation, oh it's the event. Nope, it's just overpricing. Did you notice how so many items are rising up lately? We have had many profitable events before but they didn't rise. Now we have this scheme of overpricing going on so prices are rising.
My advice to people would be to not buy overpriced.
There is a difference in a profitable event and an event in which adds billions of gold to the game.
A profitable event: egg zavior, merch awake gems, easter event. (No gold is added to game so no reason for items to rise.) You start the event with 10bil gold in game and the event ends with 10bil gold in the game other than awake event. Its a gold sink.
An event that adds gold to the game: pirate booty, house event. These events add gold to the game. The game starts with 10bil in booty and ends with 100+ billion gold. Thats going to cause inflation.
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It’s clearly inflation, no one is trying to “get you” or “trick you” into buying their item “over priced”. How do I know it’s inflation?
192 BILLION GOLD has been generated in the first week of Pirate booty event, remember this event was 2 WEEKS LONG. That’s over 350 billion Newley added gold into the system, which is what again? That’s right inflation.
CINCO the CEO of AL even stated:
“Nearly half a trillion gold has been created you may see some ECONOMICAL IMPACT”
I’m baffled that how people come up with these assumptions of “hoarding”, “Price Manipulation” when clearly it’s not either in this situation, to top it all off we had that ‘House Party Crasher’ event too right after the ‘Pirate Booty’ event. Which probably added another 25+ billion gold into the game as-well.
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Additionally, the mentioned vanity items are more attractive for people now since og lb sets are almost impossible to buy nowadays.
I invested all my gold at the point cinco told they added so much gold with the last events to not be affected by the inflation. Dont wanna see the gold I farmed getting get less and less valuable.
How was this gold calculated or just from boss drops? Chests Included? You know chests were more a gold sink than anything else. Again. That "300" b gold was distributed between all players. Players buying these "100m" vanitied aren't players that got their gold from booty or house party. Yes of course you will see some inflation of awakening gems maybe or legendary or cheap set gears but not top end items because the events didn't give out so much gold.
I would like to know how much gold is farmed from marsh and gates. Both are more profitable than these events and aren't causing this inflation and they are around for ages. These events didn't cause inflation or price rise of these top end items. Overpricing/hoarding did. Saw a post of encryptions saying he bought 2-3 red balloon banners- exactly this causes this "inflation" not a mediocre at best event.
Take the above with a grain of salt for whoever reading the above comment, as well as what I'm about to embark on.It’s clearly inflation, no one is trying to “get you” or “trick you” into buying their item “over priced”. How do I know it’s inflation?
192 BILLION GOLD has been generated in the first week of Pirate booty event, remember this event was 2 WEEKS LONG. That’s over 350 billion Newley added gold into the system, which is what again? That’s right inflation.
CINCO the CEO of AL even stated:
“Nearly half a trillion gold has been created you may see some ECONOMICAL IMPACT”
I’m baffled that how people come up with these assumptions of “hoarding”, “Price Manipulation” when clearly it’s not either in this situation, to top it all off we had that ‘House Party Crasher’ event too right after the ‘Pirate Booty’ event. Which probably added another 25+ billion gold into the game as-well.
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(Note: If you are lazy to read something that took me quite some time and effort to put into picture, feel free to ignore but don't expect me to reply to your salty comments about how long this is)
Like that u cited what the dev said to strengthen your views on the recent price rise being caused SOLELY by inflation. That's what I took away from your comment. Feel free to correct me if I misunderstood it. That said, I don't see an attempt to explain HOW exactly adding billions of gold caused inflation, maybe your intention is to reiterate what has already been said by the dev which for some reasons I felt is somehow a bit redundant although extremely resourceful.
Personally, I'm just a normal guy, and I believe a vast majority of us may not have a sound economical background let alone a PhD in Economy. Fancy economical terms like "inflation" to a lay man like me, just seems too mumbo jumbo that it does not provide me with a constructive understanding. Checking Dictionary did help a little, but still it doesn't explain the MECHANISM of AL "inflation". At best, using the word itself only put the blame of the price rise to a mumbo jumbo word and expecting people to just accept it as a valid reason to shut their mouths from asking any further questions.
To start with, "Inflation" simply means the "value of money has dropped" because its getting abundant. Money has supply and demand too, when it has little to no value, people do not hold their money and prefer holding items like gold bars instead (in game these are the expensive vanities). So demand for items will rise, hence causing the rise in price.
Now, question is, to what extent does the value of money (Gold coins) drop? Or in another words to what extent does "inflation" causes price of items to rise?
It depends on two things.
1. Supply of money (Pirate booty, Blotoo party event, plat players buying gold etc)
2. Demand for money (Gold coins needed to buy awake gems in store to awake gears, expansion needing gold to buy new gears)
I'm wondering why the dev didn't disclose how much gold was SINKED/items being Liquidated during awake events as well as during expansion (or they actually did?) but so happily revealed the amount of gold ADDED to the game when people were asking why was the pirate booty event not as profitable as expected. What's the intention behind this? I will leave it to you.
Without both info, we can't be sure if the recent rise in price of some items is indeed caused by the ADDING of gold (supply of gold) AND/OR the lack of gold SINKED (demand for gold).
If the supply of gold > demand for gold:
"Inflation" happens, value of money falls, people keep items(hoarding whether in large or in small quantities) instead of gold, quickly causing a shortage of supply of items
If the supply of gold < demand of gold:
"Deflation" happens, value of money rises, people want money more than items, hence they sell the items they have causing prices to fall.
At the moment, it seems the AL community is still speculating what actually happened at this point with all sorts of possible factors causing the price rise of certain items not just limited to explanations/assumptions like "inflation" but also with "hoarding", "price manipulations", "faking offers" or even the combined effect of all the mentioned factors. And its funny to me how some of these responses in this thread are being so subjective and pointing fingers at one another, arguing who's right and who's wrong.
Finally, I will leave you all with these to think about.
Does items rise in price solely because of one of the following OR all of the following OR something else?
1. Inflation? (Too much Supply of money)
2. Lack of Deflation? (Lack of Gold Sink)
3. Hoarders? (Fake supply in the market)
4. Price manipulators? (Setting a personal price hoping that the market price will rise up to it, usually by tricking ignorant players that that's the normal price)
5. Offers fakers in forums/game? (A bit controversial, as its hard and time consuming to tell which offer is real and which offer is not real, other than testing the validity of those offers by yourself)
Last edited by Analytical; 08-03-2020 at 10:19 AM. Reason: Corrections
So me having 3 balloon banners causes inflation...? No. Aggressive had 45 balloon banners and they stated the same price for 1.5 years then went up to 50m. People got jealous and spreaded lies.
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Maybe we need new gold sink like spendalot 2.0 hehe
I’ve read your comment, I’ll be trying to explain and answer your last question of:
“Does items rise in price solely because of one of the following or all of the following”
1.) Inflation: Inflation played a huge role in why item prices are so high. Roughly Half a Billion Gold has been newly generated into the game. What most people don’t understand is that this happened in an ‘Extremely Short Period’ of 14 days! And to add more wood to the fire, Party Crasher probably added another 25+ billion gold in a time span of 7 days.
This is what causes major inflation! A huge amount of gold added into the game in a short amount of time. I’ll give you an example;
Ex: Say you only had 20m, and your goal was to buy Kershal Vanity Weapon that was worth 60m. Now imagine 50 players in the same situation as yourself. Then ‘Pirate Booty’ and ‘Party Crasher’ event(s) hit. Now after both events you managed to save up and get 60m, congratulations. But wait... there are now 50 other people who now have 60m as-well who all want kershal.
(I hope you understand what this leads too)
One of the 50 players offers 65m for the kershal to try and 1-up the other 49 players, so then someone else offers 67, then another offers 70, then 75, then 89, and then 95 and then 100m, etc... which causes the Value if that item to rise. I hope you understood this example.
2.) Lack of Deflation: Yes, this is also a reason why item prices are so high, because there isn’t enough Gold-Sinks in game to catch up with the newly amount of gold generated.
3.) Hoarders: This is also true, although this doesn’t cause a major change in the value of an item. Especially one you can loot... for example, the arcane vanity weapons such as maul,kershal,bb hooks. *This is not what caused the prices of items to rise*
4.) Price manipulators: Sure, this could be a reason why item prices rise. This doesn’t really do much, I’ll explain; let’s say Player X wanted 30m for a Bonesaw vanity, and said C/O: was 25m. And the actual value is worth around 8-10m. No one will buy for 25m, so if no one buys it for 25m, he will lower the price, why? Because no one has been offering anything close to that, so he tried 20m, and still nothing, so now he goes for 15m, he gets a few bites from other players but there’s always going to be that 1 person who will over pay and buy his Bonesaw for 15m. So again, this doesn’t play a huge role, but I guess you could say it plays a part?
5.) Fake offers are the same as Price manipulators. So I have the same response there.
In conclusion, going back to 1.) Inflation. Is the true reason why item prices are so high, sure the others you mentioned played a part but that part is extremely small. AL inflation is caused by adding a huge amount of gold in a very short amount of time, to mention supply and demand of a certain item.
We were already going through inflation without these past 2 events, with EVG and DM gold farming maps. 4-6 months ago maul vanity was 35-40m, and then 1-2 months ago, maul vanity went up to 50-53m. You can see the difference, EVG and DM probably added a few billions of gold into the game in a 6 month time span, while during Pirate Booty event and Party Crusher added half a trillion gold during a time span of 3 weeks. You can see the difference in results, of what happens during a long term stable inflation and a short term massive gold inflation.
Think of it like a balloon. If you inflate it too quickly it pops(which is what happens when you add half a trillion gold into the game in 3 weeks)
But if you take your time puffing it(EVG and DM) you can stop it from popping.
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Faking offers for manipulating the prices
I can give you 2 good gold sinks.
1.)Adding Awakening event 3-4 times a year for 2 weeks
2.) adding (untradable)
-50m gold vanity set
-75m gold vanity set
-100m gold vanity set
- 200m gold vanity set
-250m gold vanity set
-500m vanity set
-750m vanity set
-999m vanity set.
:NEW 50k gold chest, chance to loot (tradable)
-5m gold vanity weapon
-10m gold vanity weapon
-25m gold vanity weapon
-50m vanity weapon
-100m vanity weapon
: ADD purchasable vanity weapons too(untradable)
- 150m gold vanity weapon
- 250m gold vanity weapon
- 500m gold vanity weapon
- 999m gold vanity weapon.
STS can do so much with sirspendsalot, SO MUCH!! I really hope they have something planned for him. Because I would like all these things I’ve mentioned to be implemented!
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Something like this plus 1
I personally sold Cryo daggs 40m today
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I'm dead.
_____________
To people saying that booty caused inflation.
Explain to me why farms that are more profitable and have been around for months don't cause 20% of this inflation. Why when even these exact events were more profitable they didn't cause this much inflation?
People buying these items; players nowadays have enough gold, they had years to farm. These events didn't cause nothing, people already had the gold. Now when someone overprices something that price is accepted often times enough, and is set as a new standard. Before, this would never work, but now people have enough gold so they buy anyway. Sometimes even in a rush incase the item "rises" which actually causes even more fake rarity than the hoarders cause. Bottom line, all these years of farming and the inflation that inevitably caused and the overpricers caused the items to rise. A few weeks or a month ago these cross balloon banners were a spam in auction for 3-4m but now I suppose a weak event caused them to rise nearly 10 times lmaooooooo.
I am now convinced....
You are indeed a moron, sorry to say.
Care to elaborate more on your opinion and what you are convinced about? Would like to know why I am an idiot and why you didn't prove me wrong.
Golden King explain it perfect. Please read his explanation. He talk about why prices are high, how it happened and why EVG and DM didn’t cause as much inflation as these 2 events did. Also calling a 2 week event “weak” for generating half a trillion gold into the game is stupid. And for you saying that makes you stupid. I am sorry.
Also I call you a moron because you say balloon banners were 3-4m a month ago to a few weeks ago lol they been over 20m for close to 2 year now.
Shiny ballroom or whatever it is called is also a balloon-like banner. The event that came from booty which the Devs mentioned had chests included. The chests didn't have good drops, that 300b was mostly from chests from auc I would say. Also this "Inflation" would only cause an item to rise for a low amount like 10%-20% so it would make up for the inflation. That gold from the event would be invested into that extra price increase.
These prices are fake and not caused by inflation caused by booty. This event gold came from chests mostly, lots of chests were bought from auc and dropped 12k gold. Making that 300b or so number irrelevant/untrue. The number would only be relevant only if the chests were untradable and not bought/opened from auction. why? That was a gold sink from auc most of the time you paid more than you got.
Also this event wasn't broken like the ones before. It added much less gold. A player getting 1.5m gold from the event won't inflate the game or cause a 30m item to be 4x the price lmao, that would be out of price RANGE. Obviously booty didn't triple quadruple anyone's gold. People don't realize but an event like Eggzavier would cause much more inflation at first sight. That event actually made players rich, unlike booty. These last events didn't give much gold and didn't put anyone in the price range of these arcanes or give them the ability to pay 3x/4x the price of an item they couldn't afford beforehand.
First of all: these prices are results of overpricing which also explains why other others didn't rise except particular ones.
Second: by inflation caused by all these years of farming, people just have a lot of gold left so they buy overpriced or not. If it's overpriced then it's even more of a "look at me I am rich" statement, which encourages some to buy even more.
OP prices after an average event= overpricing- like always. Have fun with your greediness/overpricing people, I am out
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