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  1. #4
    Senior Member Analytical's Avatar
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    Bud, doest matter how many hours of sleep you have tho I'm empatizing with your frustration given your hard work in the event.
    Legit got tired of seeing ppl complaining how "lucky" others are at looting sunken armors and they loot 0 arcanes.

    If this describes you, read on!

    Below is a simple but detailed explanation on why u should keep running if you haven't looted any arcane drops.

    So here's what you need to know before you we go further about looting an arcane drop:
    "All arcane loots have a relatively fixed drop rate, just like every other drop in the lootable that's designed by the dev."
    (Tips: You can track your number of runs using total energies spent and estimate your arcanes drop rate. The more runs you do, the more conclusive or accurate you will be on the arcane drop rate)

    For simplicity, let's say the arcane drop rate fixed by dev is 0.3% or 3/1000 runs. That means you are 100% guaranteed to get 3 arcane drops if you run 1000 times.

    Now, the question is on which run will you get the 3 arcanes?

    If the arcane drop rate is 0.3%, you can get an arcane either on your 1st run, 2nd run, 5th run, 67th run, 157th run, 221th run, 341th run, etc etc, you get the point, it's just randomly picking which run you will loot an arcane.

    If you are "lucky", you get the arcane EARLY in your first few runs. For example, on your 1st run/5th run etc.
    If you are "unlucky", you get it LATER in your runs. For example, on your 500th+ runs or even to the extent of on the 997th runs, 998th runs and 999th runs.

    Now, if you successfully roll an arcane on Xth run (regardless of whether the drop is an arcane armor, helm or belt for all three classes or any of the two arcane recipes), you have "1/total arcanes" chance to loot the arcane YOU LIKE, which in this case is "1/11" or 0.09% which is the meaning behind what people typically quote as Random Number Generator/RNG.

    In short if you wanna loot sunken armor, assuming the arcane drop rate is 0.3%, you will have a "0.3% X 1/11" chance to get it. Which is what people in general call as "lucky".

    To be fair, "Lucky" really doesn tell you anything about
    1.WHICH RUN you will get an arcane (totally random) or
    2. HOW MANY RUNS you need to run to get at least one arcane (arcane drop rate).

    So what now?

    Keep running to make up the numbers! It has only been 3 days, event is 2 weeks!

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