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Thread: Chance of drop arcane fields

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    Do you even know what probability is?

    The probability of getting a "6" out of a dice is 1/6, this means if I throw the dice 6000 times, there's a very very high chance that 1000 times out of the 6000 times I will get a "6". The more times you do it, the closer is the probability to 1/6. This is why I mentioned to get an accurate estimate of arcane drop rate, you need to run at least 500-1000 times to know what is your drop rate. But even if you don't, the math still stand.




    Of course you would always have the same probability, for e.g if the probability is 1/500, then for each event map you go into, you go in with this probability. What I'm describing here is the meaning of 1/500. It means if you actually run 500 times, there's one time you are getting an arcane. I don't know which run specifically you will get it but I know if you did 500 runs, you surely will get one. The probability is unaffected by the number of runs you do, it only proves itself to be right. Like you can use backward logic - how do you get the probability of 1/500 in the first place? You may have experimented it yourself and with a group of others for example, all doing at least 1000 times then on average the drop rate of arcane was found to approximate to 1/500 runs.



    This is when you start to mumble stuff you know nothing about. Dont use the word random like you know what you are talking about. Enough jargons.
    "Random" = no percentage % is involved or more precisely it means the chance of looting arcane is the same as the chance of looting common. How does one confirm this? Simple: You can't put numbers on a random number generator without setting one most crucial condition : each number must have equal chances to be selected. But this is not the case for event loots as there are different rarity of items from common, rare, epic, legendary, mythic all the way to arcane and vanities. Each of this rarity DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME DROP RATE. THAT'S WHY ITS Not JUST RNG. I mentioned its not as simple as evg boss gold drop.




    The guy that drops 10 arcanes is not the way you think it is. This is exactly what gambler's fallacy is - see the above reply to stephen. His drop rate is still the same as the rest of the players not higher not lower not "random" either. He may get 10 arcanes because he's "lucky" enough to have his arcane on his EARLY runs and he will very likely not loot anything after that, you can't defy probability. It will always come back to you to make up the math. And I'm not gonna go as exaggerating as 10 arcane, but 5 arcanes. Now If you loot say 5 arcanes in your 1st, 5th, 30th, 120th, 230th runs, then for the remainding 770 runs (assuming the probability is 5/1000, so 1000 minus 230 =770) you will not get another arcane. (I already explained in great detail in my very first post for this thread)



    Each player regardless of where you are from, as long as you are doing the runs, you will be administered with the exact same probability that everyone else gets. No one gets a higher probability than the others. Some may falsely appear to be luckier than others simply because they got arcanes in their EARLY RUNS and they can choose to stop running and "escape" from probability. Which I think largely explains why in almost every event i play, i always loot something valuable (at least one good loot) - what i did was to run only a few times in a day and i never grind for 10 hours straight for example because this will make the loot approximate to the true value of probability. If I actually do this on a daily basis for a few runs, I'm essentially allowing myself to loot an arcane in my early runs. Because i basically "reset" it by doing it. However then again, no one can really escape from probability, if I do too many times in total, it will still approximate to the true probability.
    It is not a dice game, and you are not the only one playing the game. Following your example, assuming you have 1 arcane in 500 players, 1 player will get 1 arcane and 499 nothing, it will be 1 arcane in 500 runs. If you would be only playing the game, obviously in x amount of runs at some point you will get it. one arcane is guaranteed in the game not per player. And it's simple to check, you usually have hundreds of players running in the event at the beginning of the event, so it's easier to see that people drop rare items, but as soon as people leave the game in the middle of the event, because they get bored or drops little, or gets tired, the drop begins to drop and it is no longer common to see people drop things.

    PS: you started talking about rng, anyway these types of games use that system, but it is not as simple as rolling the dice, it is underestimating the work of the devs.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    It is not a dice game
    Stop misinterpreting what I said, a dice is a simple analogy to explain probability. Regardless of what example I used, the probability definition is still the same. Doesnt matter what game or context we are talking about, probability of gettting a jackpot, meeting your beloved in a certain sample of population, being robed on a broad daylight etc etc. Please actually digest what is said before you even reply. I'm not sure if this is too much for you to grasp.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    Following your example, assuming you have 1 arcane in 500 players, 1 player will get 1 arcane and 499 nothing, it will be 1 arcane in 500 runs.
    This is where the flawed logic is. If I employ your logic it means this = if the game only has one player, that player is gonna get all the arcanes drops that are available, nullifying all the drop rate and probability we have talked about. Unless dev indeed fix a certain/specific number of arcanes available/per day, then once that number is reached, no one will ever loot an arcane, then your logic of using the number of players as the base makes a bit of sense. However, if you think about it, dev can't fix the number of arcanes/daily because dev cannot predict when ppl from different time zones will play the game. So if say in the US timezone, ppl already looted all the available arcanes, then ppl say from the indonesia timezone will not get anything at all for that particular day. it is just not fair and practical for dev to fix the amount of lootable arcanes per day.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    And it's simple to check, you usually have hundreds of players running in the event at the beginning of the event, so it's easier to see that people drop rare items, but as soon as people leave the game in the middle of the event, because they get bored or drops little, or gets tired, the drop begins to drop and it is no longer common to see people drop things.
    A totally invalid statement, of course when you have less players in the game, less total runs is being done = obviously less arcane loots. It does not disprove anything,

    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    PS: you started talking about rng, anyway these types of games use that system, but it is not as simple as rolling the dice, it is underestimating the work of the devs.
    From here i know you only read the first paragraph and did not even read what i said about RNG/Random etc. I did not equate this whole mechanism to the dice, dice is the simplest and accurate way to understand what probability is. I already mentioned it is not just RNG but the combination of Drop rate x RNG.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kystone View Post
    It’s a 1/500th chance to loot it each run lol, it won’t be 2/500 after 1 run
    Following the logic mentioned here it means that after 500 runs , the probability becomes 500/500 after 500 runs. No this is not even close to what was said earlier.
    If anything it just tells me you don't know what a probability is.

    Regardless of how many runs you do, the probability is still 1/500. If each run your chance is 1/500, then yes every run your chance remains the same. Of course we know this, now the question is when am i getting this chance 1/500 chance? it can be anywhere from the 1st run to the 500th run for you to get that arcane to justify your probability of 1/500. Simply put: After 500 runs you get 1 arcane = 1/500 chance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    Truly entertaining to read comments on forum from people who can't speak with simple logic but jargons and fancy terms.

    First you speak of a math that you know shet about. Now you talk about gambler's fallacy when I said nothing about "believing that you will loot an arcane after seeing people looting and mistakenly thinking that your odds of getting it may have gotten higher or at least equivalent" but everything about the legitimacy, mechanism of a set probability for looting any arcane item whether it's from an event loot or lock crates.

    What more? You gonna say this game is for losers?
    I have no idea what you are quoting but that’s not the definition of gamblers fallacy, nor what I thought

    I objected to the word “guarantee” with regards to the chance

    Lol
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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    Following the logic mentioned here it means that after 500 runs , the probability becomes 500/500 after 500 runs. No this is not even close to what was said earlier.
    If anything it just tells me you don't know what a probability is.

    Regardless of how many runs you do, the probability is still 1/500. If each run your chance is 1/500, then yes every run your chance remains the same. Of course we know this, now the question is when am i getting this chance 1/500 chance? it can be anywhere from the 1st run to the 500th run for you to get that arcane to justify your probability of 1/500. Simply put: After 500 runs you get 1 arcane = 1/500 chance.
    Seems like what I said flew over your head. As stephen something said, it’s a chance not guaranteed

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  8. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kystone View Post
    Seems like what I said flew over your head. As stephen something said, it’s a chance not guaranteed
    That's why I mentioned if you do it enough number of times, doesn't matter whether you are opening 1000 locks, throwing 1000 darts or running 1000 times, you would have approached the true probability. Approaching means it's almost guaranteed to get it. By almost guaranteed I mean to say 90% - 99% - 99.99% certainty (Read very carefully what I'm about to say next)

    To illustrate in lay man terms:

    Let's assume the true probability is 1/500

    1. If you run 50,000 times = the "observed" probability is very very close to the "true" probability = up to 99.99%. Rounding it up allows me to say that if you do this many times, your probability is 100/50,000 or 1/500. This means I can say with 99.99% certainty that 100 loots out of 50,000 loots you got are all arcanes. In other words, it makes no difference to say that you are guaranteed to drop 100 arcanes after 50,000 runs.

    2. If you run 5000 times, there's approximately a 99%+ chance that you will get arcane 10 times (same as saying 10/5000 or 1/500). This means that at least 9.9 out of 10 times when I say you are guaranteed to loot 10 arcanes out of 5000 runs, I'm correct 99% of the time.

    3. If you run 500 times, then my confidence level would drop more. You get the point. There's now a 90% chance that you will get 1 arcane out of 500 runs. Or equivalently, when I say you would get 1 arcane out of 500 runs to any single player out there, chances are, I'm correct 90% of the time or 9/10 times of me saying it.

    Do you guys now see why I said you are "guaranteed" to loot an arcane if you make up for the numbers(regardless of what's the minimum number required to loot one arcane)?

    This, is exactly what probability is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    That's why I mentioned if you do it enough number of times, doesn't matter whether you are opening 1000 locks, throwing 1000 darts or running 1000 times, you would have approached the true probability. Approaching means it's almost guaranteed to get it. By almost guaranteed I mean to say 90% - 99% - 99.99% certainty (Read very carefully what I'm about to say next)

    To illustrate in lay man terms:

    Let's assume the true probability is 1/500

    1. If you run 50,000 times = the "observed" probability is very very close to the "true" probability = up to 99.99%. Rounding it up allows me to say that if you do this many times, your probability is 100/50,000 or 1/500. This means I can say with 99.99% certainty that 100 loots out of 50,000 loots you got are all arcanes. In other words, it makes no difference to say that you are guaranteed to drop 100 arcanes after 50,000 runs.

    2. If you run 5000 times, there's approximately a 99%+ chance that you will get arcane 10 times (same as saying 10/5000 or 1/500). This means that at least 9.9 out of 10 times when I say you are guaranteed to loot 10 arcanes out of 5000 runs, I'm correct 99% of the time.

    3. If you run 500 times, then my confidence level would drop more. You get the point. There's now a 90% chance that you will get 1 arcane out of 500 runs. Or equivalently, when I say you would get 1 arcane out of 500 runs to any single player out there, chances are, I'm correct 90% of the time or 9/10 times of me saying it.

    Do you guys now see why I said you are "guaranteed" to loot an arcane if you make up for the numbers(regardless of what's the minimum number required to loot one arcane)?

    This, is exactly what probability is.
    if you run 50k times oh yeah that sounds very real ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephencobear View Post
    I have no idea what you are quoting but that’s not the definition of gamblers fallacy, nor what I thought

    I objected to the word “guarantee” with regards to the chance

    Lol
    totally agree, the guy thinks that by running more times his chances are going to increase. I did not know this concept, very interesting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    totally agree, the guy thinks that by running more times his chances are going to increase. I did not know this concept, very interesting.
    Selectively reading only what you want to read and now quoting me on things I did not say. I have done my best at explaining simple math but your small brain can't handle it.

    Not even a single word I said about "by running more times it increases one's chances", don't be such an idiot. I repeatedly mention no amount of runs can change the set probability. The true probability will only manifest itself when a certain amount of runs have been achieved.

    If you can't read and understand simple English no point talking logic to you, I recommend you stay away from forums that requires at least an organ called brain.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    if you run 50k times oh yeah that sounds very real ...
    I honestly wonder if you are blind or just retarded?

    Did you even read the 3rd point on 500 runs and 90% confidence?

    Ohh wait I forgot you don't have a brain to begin with.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    Selectively reading only what you want to read and now quoting me on things I did not say. I have done my best at explaining simple math but your small brain can't handle it.

    Not even a single word I said about "by running more times it increases one's chances", don't be such an idiot. I repeatedly mention no amount of runs can change the set probability. The true probability will only manifest itself when a certain amount of runs have been achieved.

    If you can't read and understand simple English no point talking logic to you, I recommend you stay away from forums that requires at least an organ called brain.
    A random event is more likely to occur if it did not happen recently, we think that we are better at calculating probabilities than we really are. the gambler's fallacy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    A random event is more likely to occur if it did not happen recently, we think that we are better at calculating probabilities than we really are. the gambler's fallacy.
    Not only do you not know how to talk simple logic, now you trying to cover up with jargons and technical terms you know sheet about. Worse still it is from another person. Sure if this makes you feel more secured go ahead, I would suggest you to resurrect Albert Einstein to support your claim, he is definitely your best bet since you don't have logic.

    Well well anyway, thank you so so so much.

    Very reluctantly but I have accepted the reality that in life there are people who just can't understand logic, I should not waste an ounce of my energy playing music in front of cows.

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    Some of you seem really interested in probability calculation. Bernoulli Chain & Bernoulli Distribution is the term you were looking for an finite reoccuring and static event. Law of large numbers and universal pareto distribution for 100 items in 50k runs. Conditional probability for why it seems that people who looted an arcane usually loot another (besides psychological aspects of motivation).
    All resources online. I don't want to participate in convo. Firstly bc its an old thread and secondly; I might give wrong info as well. All I want to mention is that probabilty calculation cannot be explained well if you havent studied the topic intensively. The things you think are right on this level by intuition are usually very wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by QuaseT View Post
    Some of you seem really interested in probability calculation. Bernoulli Chain & Bernoulli Distribution is the term you were looking for an finite reoccuring and static event. Law of large numbers and universal pareto distribution for 100 items in 50k runs. Conditional probability for why it seems that people who looted an arcane usually loot another (besides psychological aspects of motivation).
    All resources online. I don't want to participate in convo. Firstly bc its an old thread and secondly; I might give wrong info as well. All I want to mention is that probabilty calculation cannot be explained well if you havent studied the topic intensively. The things you think are right on this level by intuition are usually very wrong.
    Glad to read someone who can speak logic lol.

    Always respected your comments qua because you have always been very constructive.

    Personally I have taken advanced statistics and what I explained here is less than 5% of what I learned lol because I don't like to complicate stuff with jargons, it is just wasting my effort explaining this kind of stuff to people who barely knows about it, I usually try to speak as simple as possible without any fancy terms but well there are still people who can't understand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    Glad to read someone who can speak logic lol.

    Always respected your comments qua because you have always been very constructive.

    Personally I have taken advanced statistics and what I explained here is less than 5% of what I learned lol because I don't like to complicate stuff with jargons, it is just wasting my effort explaining this kind of stuff to people who barely knows about it, I usually try to speak as simple as possible without any fancy terms but well there are still people who can't understand.
    in advanced statistics they taught you to insult people when they disagree with you?

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