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Thread: Chance of drop arcane fields

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    Quote Originally Posted by wraithmourne View Post
    YOU Don`t understand inflation,

    Why? The more ppl loots arcane, the more gold is released to the ppl.

    Remember items can serve as currency....for barter / auc.

    Now explain to me how it doesnt affect game’s economy?

    Go to school....

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    Quote Originally Posted by wraithmourne View Post
    YOU Don`t understand inflation,

    Why? The more ppl loots arcane, the more gold is released to the ppl.

    Remember items can serve as currency....for barter / auc.

    Now explain to me how it doesnt affect game’s economy?

    Go to school....

    Sent from my XT1635-02 using Tapatalk
    Lemme give a simple example

    Consider a system which consists of 10k currency and 25 items with each item worth 400 currency
    In a period of time the amount of item increases from 25 to 40 but the currency remains same
    So the new cost of item will obviously become reduced to 250 currency , which results in a deflation

    I think it is pretty clear now that which one of us needs to go to school

    Peace out

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    Quote Originally Posted by wraithmourne View Post
    YOU Don`t understand inflation,

    Why? The more ppl loots arcane, the more gold is released to the ppl.

    Remember items can serve as currency....for barter / auc.

    Now explain to me how it doesnt affect game’s economy?

    Go to school....

    Sent from my XT1635-02 using Tapatalk
    Wrong..... More arcanes = deflation... Explain how looting an arcane item gives a person gold. Ofc if they sell it in the auction or to another player but that is not adding gold into the game. That is trading gold with another player when they buy an item. Deflation would happen because supply would soon out beat demand making the arcanes drop.
    How will supply out beat demand you ask? Everyone who wants the vest will obtain it and have no use for an extra one. So people who loot the vests get less buyers meaning they will sell cheaper and cheaper until it is sold.
    You want inflation go look at pirate booty event- as it directly added 200billion+ gold into the game. Pure gold looted from the map.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Encryptions View Post
    Wrong..... More arcanes = deflation... Explain how looting an arcane item gives a person gold. Ofc if they sell it in the auction or to another player but that is not adding gold into the game. That is trading gold with another player when they buy an item. Deflation would happen because supply would soon out beat demand making the arcanes drop.
    How will supply out beat demand you ask? Everyone who wants the vest will obtain it and have no use for an extra one. So people who loot the vests get less buyers meaning they will sell cheaper and cheaper until it is sold.
    You want inflation go look at pirate booty event- as it directly added 200billion+ gold into the game. Pure gold looted from the map.
    no you dont understand either, how if the ones with money loots it?...and use it for himself? they won't need to buy another....affects purchasing power....


    the purchasing side will be affected for they wont need to spend more money.....and how if the player loots another then sells it?...

    like me i looted 2 arcane in these event already..

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    Quote Originally Posted by wraithmourne View Post
    no you dont understand either, how if the ones with money loots it?...and use it for himself? they won't need to buy another....affects purchasing power....


    the purchasing side will be affected for they wont need to spend more money.....and how if the player loots another then sells it?...

    like me i looted 2 arcane in these event already..

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    Explain how this causes inflation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Encryptions View Post
    Explain how this causes inflation.
    oh sorry, i got everything mixed up XD SORRY MY BAD

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    Definitely needs an improvement. 100s of runs with no arc drops but some players looting multiple arcs with fewer runs means that whatever algorithm being used isn't really a good one.

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    The items are arcane. Therefore they are meant to be very rare to loot. Also this game is full of RNG. Sometimes its in your favor, and sometimes its not. Its just the risk you take when you devote your time into farming anything in this game. You never really know what you will loot or if you'll even loot anything good. Its just up to you to decide if its worth the risk and time.
    Last edited by Silly Lily; 08-25-2020 at 11:05 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silly Lily View Post
    The items are arcane. Therefore they are meant to be very rare to loot. Also this game is full of RNG. Sometimes its in your favor, and sometimes its not. Its just the risk you take when you devote your time into farming anything in this game. You never really know what you will loot or if you'll even loot anything good. Its just up to you to decide if its worth the risk and time.
    Time & effort being a requirement is fair enough. However, that shouldn't be an excuse for not improving balance in the game. Going through say 500 runs for looting an arc item is fine as long it's the same for everyone. Some people looting arc items over & over in a span of few runs while others getting nothing despite hundreds of runs simply means that the algorithm is not well designed. There's always scope for improvement but it's up to the devs to decide if THEY want to put in the time & effort to make the gaming experience more balanced (or leave it as it is like a gambling game, which'd be a shame for such a good game).

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    do you think re-roll would help?
    or luck stacks?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    For simplicity, let's say the arcane drop rate fixed by dev is 0.3% or 3/1000 runs. That means you are 100% guaranteed to get 3 arcane drops if you run 1000 times.
    Untrue

    Rng= you are not guaranteed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephencobear View Post
    Untrue

    Rng= you are not guaranteed
    I believe you mixed up another meaning for RNG with event loot i.e. the amount of gold drop from evg boss. The amount of gold is determined by a random number generator that generates from say 1k to 5k base gold. For simplicity we may omit the drop rate of the type/amount of gold drop. (However to be more precise, RNG here may imply the chance of getting (same meaning as drop rate) 1k base gold is assumed to be the same as the chance of getting 5k base gold --- although I kinda doubt it is purely RNG but more of drop rate x RNG. Drop rate being higher for 1k base gold drop and lower for 5k base gold drop, most common for say 2k-3k base gold drop)

    NOTE: Not sure if you read the whole explanation, here's the paragraph I mentioned about RNG:

    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post

    Now, if you successfully roll an arcane on Xth run (regardless of whether the drop is an arcane armor, helm or belt for all three classes or any of the two arcane recipes), you have "1/total arcanes" chance to loot the arcane YOU LIKE, which in this case is "1/11" or 0.09% which is the meaning behind what people typically quote as Random Number Generator/RNG.
    For event loots and lock crates loots, RNG works a little differently, not as simple as evg boss gold drops, simply because they definitely have another thing we call drop rate. Drop rate essentially means regardless of how low the % could be, you will have a chance to loot that item, therefore it is included in the lootable.

    Now to your questions/remarks:
    1. Study your math before you comment. What I meant by guaranteed is a direct translation from mathematical terms likes percentages %, not an opinion of mine. Given a particular drop rate for an arcane item, regardless what % is (could be 0.002%, 0.005% etc), you are guaranteed to loot the arcane after a set amount of times. This applies to both event loot or lock crates loot. Very basic math ---- drop rate of 0.002% is the same as saying 1/500 times.

    2. RNG DOES NOT EQUAL Drop rate. If it does, the market would have already been flooded with arcane's like it is common stuff.
    In this context and pragmatically speaking, RNG is essentially: Given a particular drop rate, say, chance of looting an arcane from lock crates is 0.002%(1/500), then RNG will determine the TYPE of arcane you got depending on how many arcanes are in the lootable. If they are 10 arcanes types (eggs, gears etc) RNG basically means you will randomly roll one type out of them(RNG probability = 1/500 x 1/10 = 0.2%)

    P.S. this is a 1 year old thread. Don't have to quote me on an old thread.

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    Imagine using a wall of text and insult to defend a simple gamblers fallacy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stephencobear View Post
    Imagine using a wall of text and insult to defend a simple gamblers fallacy
    Truly entertaining to read comments on forum from people who can't speak with simple logic but jargons and fancy terms.

    First you speak of a math that you know shet about. Now you talk about gambler's fallacy when I said nothing about "believing that you will loot an arcane after seeing people looting and mistakenly thinking that your odds of getting it may have gotten higher or at least equivalent" but everything about the legitimacy, mechanism of a set probability for looting any arcane item whether it's from an event loot or lock crates.

    What more? You gonna say this game is for losers?

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    Ah yes probability calculation; a topic 10% of students understand in school and 99% do not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    I believe you mixed up another meaning for RNG with event loot i.e. the amount of gold drop from evg boss. The amount of gold is determined by a random number generator that generates from say 1k to 5k base gold. For simplicity we may omit the drop rate of the type/amount of gold drop. (However to be more precise, RNG here may imply the chance of getting (same meaning as drop rate) 1k base gold is assumed to be the same as the chance of getting 5k base gold --- although I kinda doubt it is purely RNG but more of drop rate x RNG. Drop rate being higher for 1k base gold drop and lower for 5k base gold drop, most common for say 2k-3k base gold drop)

    NOTE: Not sure if you read the whole explanation, here's the paragraph I mentioned about RNG:



    For event loots and lock crates loots, RNG works a little differently, not as simple as evg boss gold drops, simply because they definitely have another thing we call drop rate. Drop rate essentially means regardless of how low the % could be, you will have a chance to loot that item, therefore it is included in the lootable.

    Now to your questions/remarks:
    1. Study your math before you comment. What I meant by guaranteed is a direct translation from mathematical terms likes percentages %, not an opinion of mine. Given a particular drop rate for an arcane item, regardless what % is (could be 0.002%, 0.005% etc), you are guaranteed to loot the arcane after a set amount of times. This applies to both event loot or lock crates loot. Very basic math ---- drop rate of 0.002% is the same as saying 1/500 times.

    2. RNG DOES NOT EQUAL Drop rate. If it does, the market would have already been flooded with arcane's like it is common stuff.
    In this context and pragmatically speaking, RNG is essentially: Given a particular drop rate, say, chance of looting an arcane from lock crates is 0.002%(1/500), then RNG will determine the TYPE of arcane you got depending on how many arcanes are in the lootable. If they are 10 arcanes types (eggs, gears etc) RNG basically means you will randomly roll one type out of them(RNG probability = 1/500 x 1/10 = 0.2%)

    P.S. this is a 1 year old thread. Don't have to quote me on an old thread.
    false x2. Dropping something arcane is not guaranteed.

    Pd: if you are such a good mathematician, what are you doing here teaching?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    false x2. Dropping something arcane is not guaranteed.

    Pd: if you are such a good mathematician, what are you doing here teaching?
    Read before you spit your crap.

    I said nothing about a guaranteed drop of arcane, (that's same as saying 100% drop rate of arcane), instead I said out of a said number of times, you are definitely getting an arcane ( X %). That's the most basic definition of drop rate. It could take as far as 1,000 or even 10,000 times before you are gonna get one arcane. As long as the drop rate is not 0%, you are gonna get an arcane, just a question of when and which run/roll.

    Simply put:
    The possibility of Dropping an arcane = Drop rate of arcane. That possibility can be high or low. Regardless, it is a percentage. Of course if it is not possible at all to get an arcane, it means it is not included in the event lootable by the developer. Then there's no point to talk about this at all because it means the drop rate is 0%.

    Now, assuming your math sucks, I hope your logic is still with you, hopefully this is simple enough for you to understand:
    Let's say the drop rate of arcane is 1% = 1/100, that simply means out of 100 times/runs/rolls/etc, you would definitely get at least one arcane.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    Read before you spit your crap.

    I said nothing about a guaranteed drop of arcane, (that's same as saying 100% drop rate of arcane), instead I said out of a said number of times, you are definitely getting an arcane ( X %). That's the most basic definition of drop rate. It could take as far as 1,000 or even 10,000 times before you are gonna get one arcane. As long as the drop rate is not 0%, you are gonna get an arcane, just a question of when and which run/roll.

    Simply put:
    The possibility of Dropping an arcane = Drop rate of arcane. That possibility can be high or low. Regardless, it is a percentage. Of course if it is not possible at all to get an arcane, it means it is not included in the event lootable by the developer. Then there's no point to talk about this at all because it means the drop rate is 0%.

    Now, assuming your math sucks, I hope your logic is still with you, hopefully this is simple enough for you to understand:
    Let's say the drop rate of arcane is 1% = 1/100, that simply means out of 100 times/runs/rolls/etc, you would definitely get at least one arcane.
    You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability, it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game, not in a particular player. that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs. And if you read the whole mess of words that you say, you will see that you yourself are saying that you are guaranteed to drop an arcane, which is false. 1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.

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    It’s a 1/500th chance to loot it each run lol, it won’t be 2/500 after 1 run

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability, it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game, not in a particular player. that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs. And if you read the whole mess of words that you say, you will see that you yourself are saying that you are guaranteed to drop an arcane, which is false. 1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.
    Do you even know what probability is?

    The probability of getting a "6" out of a dice is 1/6, this means if I throw the dice 6000 times, there's a very very high chance that 1000 times out of the 6000 times I will get a "6". The more times you do it, the closer is the probability to 1/6. This is why I mentioned to get an accurate estimate of arcane drop rate, you need to run at least 500-1000 times to know what is your drop rate. But even if you don't, the math still stand.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability
    Quote Originally Posted by Kystone View Post
    It’s a 1/500th chance to loot it each run lol, it won’t be 2/500 after 1 run
    Of course you would always have the same probability, for e.g if the probability is 1/500, then for each event map you go into, you go in with this probability. What I'm describing here is the meaning of 1/500. It means if you actually run 500 times, there's one time you are getting an arcane. I don't know which run specifically you will get it but I know if you did 500 runs, you surely will get one. The probability is unaffected by the number of runs you do, it only proves itself to be right. Like you can use backward logic - how do you get the probability of 1/500 in the first place? You may have experimented it yourself and with a group of others for example, all doing at least 1000 times then on average the drop rate of arcane was found to approximate to 1/500 runs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game
    This is when you start to mumble stuff you know nothing about. Dont use the word random like you know what you are talking about. Enough jargons.
    "Random" = no percentage % is involved or more precisely it means the chance of looting arcane is the same as the chance of looting common. How does one confirm this? Simple: You can't put numbers on a random number generator without setting one most crucial condition : each number must have equal chances to be selected. But this is not the case for event loots as there are different rarity of items from common, rare, epic, legendary, mythic all the way to arcane and vanities. Each of this rarity DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME DROP RATE. THAT'S WHY ITS Not JUST RNG. I mentioned its not as simple as evg boss gold drop.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs
    Quote Originally Posted by Analytical View Post
    .......Now you talk about gambler's fallacy when I said nothing about "believing that you will loot an arcane after seeing people looting and mistakenly thinking that your odds of getting it may have gotten higher or at least equivalent" ......
    The guy that drops 10 arcanes is not the way you think it is. This is exactly what gambler's fallacy is - see the above reply to stephen. His drop rate is still the same as the rest of the players not higher not lower not "random" either. He may get 10 arcanes because he's "lucky" enough to have his arcane on his EARLY runs and he will very likely not loot anything after that, you can't defy probability. It will always come back to you to make up the math. And I'm not gonna go as exaggerating as 10 arcane, but 5 arcanes. Now If you loot say 5 arcanes in your 1st, 5th, 30th, 120th, 230th runs, then for the remainding 770 runs (assuming the probability is 5/1000, so 1000 minus 230 =770) you will not get another arcane. (I already explained in great detail in my very first post for this thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Nocturnus View Post
    1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.
    Each player regardless of where you are from, as long as you are doing the runs, you will be administered with the exact same probability that everyone else gets. No one gets a higher probability than the others. Some may falsely appear to be luckier than others simply because they got arcanes in their EARLY RUNS and they can choose to stop running and "escape" from probability. Which I think largely explains why in almost every event i play, i always loot something valuable (at least one good loot) - what i did was to run only a few times in a day and i never grind for 10 hours straight for example because this will make the loot approximate to the true value of probability. If I actually do this on a daily basis for a few runs, I'm essentially allowing myself to loot an arcane in my early runs. Because i basically "reset" it by doing it. However then again, no one can really escape from probability, if I do too many times in total, it will still approximate to the true probability.

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