Chance of drop arcane fields

[Analytical]

You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability, it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game, not in a particular player. that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs. And if you read the whole mess of words that you say, you will see that you yourself are saying that you are guaranteed to drop an arcane, which is false. 1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.

Do you even know what probability is?

The probability of getting a "6" out of a dice is 1/6, this means if I throw the dice 6000 times, there's a very very high chance that 1000 times out of the 6000 times I will get a "6". The more times you do it, the closer is the probability to 1/6. This is why I mentioned to get an accurate estimate of arcane drop rate, you need to run at least 500-1000 times to know what is your drop rate. But even if you don't, the math still stand.

You will always have the same probability, running more times will not increase your probability

It’s a 1/500th chance to loot it each run lol, it won’t be 2/500 after 1 run

Of course you would always have the same probability, for e.g if the probability is 1/500, then for each event map you go into, you go in with this probability. What I'm describing here is the meaning of 1/500. It means if you actually run 500 times, there's one time you are getting an arcane. I don't know which run specifically you will get it but I know if you did 500 runs, you surely will get one. The probability is unaffected by the number of runs you do, it only proves itself to be right. Like you can use backward logic - how do you get the probability of 1/500 in the first place? You may have experimented it yourself and with a group of others for example, all doing at least 1000 times then on average the drop rate of arcane was found to approximate to 1/500 runs.

it is still random, this is how rng works, they use percentages and equations to create an illusion of randomness in the game

This is when you start to mumble stuff you know nothing about. Dont use the word random like you know what you are talking about. Enough jargons.
"Random" = no percentage % is involved or more precisely it means the chance of looting arcane is the same as the chance of looting common. How does one confirm this? Simple: You can't put numbers on a random number generator without setting one most crucial condition : each number must have equal chances to be selected. But this is not the case for event loots as there are different rarity of items from common, rare, epic, legendary, mythic all the way to arcane and vanities. Each of this rarity DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME DROP RATE. THAT'S WHY ITS Not JUST RNG. I mentioned its not as simple as evg boss gold drop.

that is why you are going to have 1 guy dropping 10 arcans and another dropping just 1 in the same number of runs

.......Now you talk about gambler's fallacy when I said nothing about "believing that you will loot an arcane after seeing people looting and mistakenly thinking that your odds of getting it may have gotten higher or at least equivalent" ......

The guy that drops 10 arcanes is not the way you think it is. This is exactly what gambler's fallacy is - see the above reply to stephen. His drop rate is still the same as the rest of the players not higher not lower not "random" either. He may get 10 arcanes because he's "lucky" enough to have his arcane on his EARLY runs and he will very likely not loot anything after that, you can't defy probability. It will always come back to you to make up the math. And I'm not gonna go as exaggerating as 10 arcane, but 5 arcanes. Now If you loot say 5 arcanes in your 1st, 5th, 30th, 120th, 230th runs, then for the remainding 770 runs (assuming the probability is 5/1000, so 1000 minus 230 =770) you will not get another arcane. (I already explained in great detail in my very first post for this thread)

1 guy in the game is guaranteed to drop 1 arcane in the game, not 1 arcane per player.

Each player regardless of where you are from, as long as you are doing the runs, you will be administered with the exact same probability that everyone else gets. No one gets a higher probability than the others. Some may falsely appear to be luckier than others simply because they got arcanes in their EARLY RUNS and they can choose to stop running and "escape" from probability. Which I think largely explains why in almost every event i play, i always loot something valuable (at least one good loot) - what i did was to run only a few times in a day and i never grind for 10 hours straight for example because this will make the loot approximate to the true value of probability. If I actually do this on a daily basis for a few runs, I'm essentially allowing myself to loot an arcane in my early runs. Because i basically "reset" it by doing it. However then again, no one can really escape from probability, if I do too many times in total, it will still approximate to the true probability.

[Nocturnus]

Do you even know what probability is?

The probability of getting a "6" out of a dice is 1/6, this means if I throw the dice 6000 times, there's a very very high chance that 1000 times out of the 6000 times I will get a "6". The more times you do it, the closer is the probability to 1/6. This is why I mentioned to get an accurate estimate of arcane drop rate, you need to run at least 500-1000 times to know what is your drop rate. But even if you don't, the math still stand.




Of course you would always have the same probability, for e.g if the probability is 1/500, then for each event map you go into, you go in with this probability. What I'm describing here is the meaning of 1/500. It means if you actually run 500 times, there's one time you are getting an arcane. I don't know which run specifically you will get it but I know if you did 500 runs, you surely will get one. The probability is unaffected by the number of runs you do, it only proves itself to be right. Like you can use backward logic - how do you get the probability of 1/500 in the first place? You may have experimented it yourself and with a group of others for example, all doing at least 1000 times then on average the drop rate of arcane was found to approximate to 1/500 runs.



This is when you start to mumble stuff you know nothing about. Dont use the word random like you know what you are talking about. Enough jargons.
"Random" = no percentage % is involved or more precisely it means the chance of looting arcane is the same as the chance of looting common. How does one confirm this? Simple: You can't put numbers on a random number generator without setting one most crucial condition : each number must have equal chances to be selected. But this is not the case for event loots as there are different rarity of items from common, rare, epic, legendary, mythic all the way to arcane and vanities. Each of this rarity DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME DROP RATE. THAT'S WHY ITS Not JUST RNG. I mentioned its not as simple as evg boss gold drop.




The guy that drops 10 arcanes is not the way you think it is. This is exactly what gambler's fallacy is - see the above reply to stephen. His drop rate is still the same as the rest of the players not higher not lower not "random" either. He may get 10 arcanes because he's "lucky" enough to have his arcane on his EARLY runs and he will very likely not loot anything after that, you can't defy probability. It will always come back to you to make up the math. And I'm not gonna go as exaggerating as 10 arcane, but 5 arcanes. Now If you loot say 5 arcanes in your 1st, 5th, 30th, 120th, 230th runs, then for the remainding 770 runs (assuming the probability is 5/1000, so 1000 minus 230 =770) you will not get another arcane. (I already explained in great detail in my very first post for this thread)



Each player regardless of where you are from, as long as you are doing the runs, you will be administered with the exact same probability that everyone else gets. No one gets a higher probability than the others. Some may falsely appear to be luckier than others simply because they got arcanes in their EARLY RUNS and they can choose to stop running and "escape" from probability. Which I think largely explains why in almost every event i play, i always loot something valuable (at least one good loot) - what i did was to run only a few times in a day and i never grind for 10 hours straight for example because this will make the loot approximate to the true value of probability. If I actually do this on a daily basis for a few runs, I'm essentially allowing myself to loot an arcane in my early runs. Because i basically "reset" it by doing it. However then again, no one can really escape from probability, if I do too many times in total, it will still approximate to the true probability.

It is not a dice game, and you are not the only one playing the game. Following your example, assuming you have 1 arcane in 500 players, 1 player will get 1 arcane and 499 nothing, it will be 1 arcane in 500 runs. If you would be only playing the game, obviously in x amount of runs at some point you will get it. one arcane is guaranteed in the game not per player. And it's simple to check, you usually have hundreds of players running in the event at the beginning of the event, so it's easier to see that people drop rare items, but as soon as people leave the game in the middle of the event, because they get bored or drops little, or gets tired, the drop begins to drop and it is no longer common to see people drop things.

PS: you started talking about rng, anyway these types of games use that system, but it is not as simple as rolling the dice, it is underestimating the work of the devs.

[Analytical]

It is not a dice game

Stop misinterpreting what I said, a dice is a simple analogy to explain probability. Regardless of what example I used, the probability definition is still the same. Doesnt matter what game or context we are talking about, probability of gettting a jackpot, meeting your beloved in a certain sample of population, being robed on a broad daylight etc etc. Please actually digest what is said before you even reply. I'm not sure if this is too much for you to grasp.

Following your example, assuming you have 1 arcane in 500 players, 1 player will get 1 arcane and 499 nothing, it will be 1 arcane in 500 runs.

This is where the flawed logic is. If I employ your logic it means this = if the game only has one player, that player is gonna get all the arcanes drops that are available, nullifying all the drop rate and probability we have talked about. Unless dev indeed fix a certain/specific number of arcanes available/per day, then once that number is reached, no one will ever loot an arcane, then your logic of using the number of players as the base makes a bit of sense. However, if you think about it, dev can't fix the number of arcanes/daily because dev cannot predict when ppl from different time zones will play the game. So if say in the US timezone, ppl already looted all the available arcanes, then ppl say from the indonesia timezone will not get anything at all for that particular day. it is just not fair and practical for dev to fix the amount of lootable arcanes per day.

And it's simple to check, you usually have hundreds of players running in the event at the beginning of the event, so it's easier to see that people drop rare items, but as soon as people leave the game in the middle of the event, because they get bored or drops little, or gets tired, the drop begins to drop and it is no longer common to see people drop things.

A totally invalid statement, of course when you have less players in the game, less total runs is being done = obviously less arcane loots. It does not disprove anything,

PS: you started talking about rng, anyway these types of games use that system, but it is not as simple as rolling the dice, it is underestimating the work of the devs.

From here i know you only read the first paragraph and did not even read what i said about RNG/Random etc. I did not equate this whole mechanism to the dice, dice is the simplest and accurate way to understand what probability is. I already mentioned it is not just RNG but the combination of Drop rate x RNG.