A Lazy Vampire's Quest

[Growwle]

The more times you run one single level, your drop rate actually increases.. Not LUCK chance, just increases because of numbers of times run... And it still is all LUCK!

Unless there is a mechanic that makes it this way rather than a simple drop % chance, no your drop rate will not increase. If the drop rate is 0.01%, your chance of it dropping is 1 in 10,000 each and every time you enter that dungeon. You are no more likely to get it on yoour 10,000th run than you were on your 1st run. Yes, as you said earlier.. if you run enough, you will eventually get the item. But it could take 100,000 runs or more... or it may just take 1...

You are right, if running it once gives you a 1 in 10000 chance (example), then running it twice just gives you a 2 in 20000 chance, which are the same odds.

[Growwle]

DAY 7

Aborting my quest. Sorry guys, too much real life stuff going on right now to spend my time trying to get Albino bats. I am not quitting, just going to play alot less for now. If I do get the bats some day, I will post it here.

[Rare]

Bummer

[Taikeo]

I gave up myself and just switched to my second account that had the dark crusader bundle.. I actually liked the look of the dark bats better anyway, even though they are not exclusive.. I got the bundle on that account with the included 10 plat when everything was half price. Didn't want to spend real money on first account to get a bundle that I only liked the pet.. lol.

As long as I am happy with the look of my character, I don't need to be leet.. lol

[Carapace]

Unless there is a mechanic that makes it this way rather than a simple drop % chance, no your drop rate will not increase. If the drop rate is 0.01%, your chance of it dropping is 1 in 10,000 each and every time you enter that dungeon. You are no more likely to get it on yoour 10,000th run than you were on your 1st run. Yes, as you said earlier.. if you run enough, you will eventually get the item. But it could take 100,000 runs or more... or it may just take 1...

I believe Wretch is referencing the idea of probability. The idea that say, chances in rolling an 11 on 2 dice is 15:1, after 15 rolls, probability states that the dice are going to turn up an 11 sometime very very soon. The longer you grind on a level, that probability window should continue to shrink, though the numbers actually stay the same.

I may be wrong though, good luck!

[Wretch]

I believe Wretch is referencing the idea of probability. The idea that say, chances in rolling an 11 on 2 dice is 15:1, after 15 rolls, probability states that the dice are going to turn up an 11 sometime very very soon. The longer you grind on a level, that probability window should continue to shrink, though the numbers actually stay the same.

I may be wrong though, good luck!

You are correct at the point I was attempting to make!

[Taikeo]

I believe Wretch is referencing the idea of probability. The idea that say, chances in rolling an 11 on 2 dice is 15:1, after 15 rolls, probability states that the dice are going to turn up an 11 sometime very very soon. The longer you grind on a level, that probability window should continue to shrink, though the numbers actually stay the same.

I may be wrong though, good luck!

Each roll is a single event with 15:1 odds. Yes probability says that eventually you will roll that 11, but each roll the odds are the same... Lady Luck is a fickle mistress...

[StompArtist]

I believe Wretch is referencing the idea of probability. The idea that say, chances in rolling an 11 on 2 dice is 15:1, after 15 rolls, probability states that the dice are going to turn up an 11 sometime very very soon. The longer you grind on a level, that probability window should continue to shrink, though the numbers actually stay the same.

I may be wrong though, good luck!

Assuming that the random number generator is working properly and that the maths are not funky you have 66.32991% chances of dropping the item after run 15.

[SssoulSsshine]

Assuming that the random number generator is working properly and that the maths are not funky you have 66.32991% chances of dropping the item after run 15.

This is known as the gambler's fallacy. Let's say you're walking through a Las Vegas casino, and you look up and see a roulette wheel where the winner has been red 17 (or 1700 or 17 million) times in a row. Your brain tells you that it has to be HUGE odds that the next one will be black. Wrong. Still have the same odds, 18/38 (because of the two green numbers).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

The fact that your mind insists that your odds have to be better because of the prior x number of outcomes makes the mafia, er casinos, *a lot* of money.