A Lazy Vampire's Quest

[SssoulSsshine]

Assuming that the random number generator is working properly and that the maths are not funky you have 66.32991% chances of dropping the item after run 15.

This is known as the gambler's fallacy. Let's say you're walking through a Las Vegas casino, and you look up and see a roulette wheel where the winner has been red 17 (or 1700 or 17 million) times in a row. Your brain tells you that it has to be HUGE odds that the next one will be black. Wrong. Still have the same odds, 18/38 (because of the two green numbers).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

The fact that your mind insists that your odds have to be better because of the prior x number of outcomes makes the mafia, er casinos, *a lot* of money.