Originally Posted by
Morholt
Your initial post was in regards to the probability of looting new mythic items, and that's what my response was to.
But since you want to talk profitability...hmmm, that's an interesting point. Those double odds have the old mythic armor/helm removed, so that's a boost in your mythic weapon chance, if you roll to loot a mythic in the first place. The odds of a mythic weapon are going to be appealing.
With crates' normal odds...looting an arcane is next to impossible. So, it's hard to consider those for profiting (especially if you don't get Samael or the Shard). That's a big, big luck factor. Remember, mythic normal odds are already much better than arcane. So, with increased odds of mythic weapons...shooting for more chances at an arcane shard is probably less profitable.
I'd start out the event trying to open double odds crates first, while the weapons are worth their most. If the weapons ever reach lower than the 10 m point, and you still need the Red Letter Day AP, start opening the normal ones.
Thanks for adding the explanation. A lot of people seem to think their previous attempts makes them 'due' for a win, which simply isn't true.
For those who don't understand parts of what Crow said: imagine a coin. If it lands heads, you get a mythic. Would you rather flip it twice, or flip it once with double odds? With double odds, you obviously have a better chance at getting your mythic (as it is 100%). However, your other option does not guarantee you a mythic, but it does offer you the possibility of more mythics in total, while also offering a chance at less mythics. Your individual decision on which way you want to go is up to yourself; just know that you have a better chance of walking away a winner with the double odds.
Of course, it's different when talking about real mythic chances. In the past, I've shown that 1/200 each roll of a crate for normal mythic odds is possibly a high guess. But let's pretend the actual chance*
is 1/200. Would you prefer to try two attempts of 1/200, or one of 1/100? Personally, I'd go for 1/100 chance.
And remember, folks, 200 attempts of 1/200 doesn't mean your 200th attempt will be any different/better than your first attempt.
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