Discussion about the long term prospects on PL
To begin with, this isn't a thread that I wanted to make, but I feel it had to be made by someone.
I think that at this point, we need to discuss (as an entire forum community), the long term prospects for PL.
Current Issues
There are several easy to fix issues:
1. PvP is unbalanced at end game (easy to fix - I've already made some simple recommendations) - http://www.spacetimestudios.com/show...lance-the-game
2. PvE is totally dependent on elixirs (could make a pay per run without elixirs with a 100% chance of pinks)
3. Existing players will have advantages - 3 piece ring, and for some black dragon/founders
The hard to fix issues though are another matter:
1. Declining community, both in numbers and quality of player (total reliance on elixirs in PvE and excessive focus on PvP K/D, along with the increase in foul play/language)
2. Rich-poor gap means that new players will have a hard time catching up (need a money sink, but only one that targets the very wealthy)
3. The forum itself seems to have declined - by that I mean the percentage of posts that could be described as well, insightful versus trollish
4. There's a general boredom over the existing content (I could argue this is easy to fix, just release another cap or something like what the Shadow Caves was to Alien Oasis 3)
What will happen if nothing is fixed?
At this point, we haven't received much communication from STS about their long term plans, which in turn means that we are forced to assume that they have none. It would be one thing if they said for example, we're getting an update in say, H2 of 2014, or that they intend to re-balance the game once again. It's another to be greeted with well, silence.
If nothing is fixed, then the current trends will continue their logical progression. That is to say, more and more people will go str at endgame. A lot of things have become lost knowledge, like how to tank properly, which fewer and fewer people know now. There will also be a steady stream of people who leave (or stop spending plat). At some point, the amount of people that leave will inevitably increase. It's important to recognize that when a person who was prominent leaves, they don't just leave their revenues, they also give the existing players less of a reason to stay.
What happens on autopilot? Eventually I think we will reach a critical mass where, the cost of maintaining the servers for 1 game exceeds the possible revenue collection. At that point, I think we could reach a situation where the game is simply shut down. EA has become notorious for shutting down games. Star Wars Galaxies shut down about 2 years ago after 8 years in operation.
What if my suggestions are carried out for a modest re-balancing?
It will take some time to adjust. It may require a second re-balancing, but I think it will be relatively well received, save among those who are focused purely on K/D and who want one class to be OP on purpose.
But it will lead classes to become more lore-centric, more balanced, and it should encourage better cooperation too in PvE.
That said, without new content, the inevitable loss of players can only be somewhat slowed (although it may attract many of the higher platinum spending oldies again).
What if new content is released?
It will heavily depend on the quality of the new content, the balance in the case of PvP, and the ability to maintain long term player interest. We'll see a spike of our old friends. Whether they choose to stay or not depends on what is offered and whether it remains competitive to the alternatives (other MMOs, other games, and what else can be bought with money).
I made my long thread to be scalable and in line with what future PvE and PvP requirements would hold:
http://www.spacetimestudios.com/show...-class-balance
If it's good content, it may generate interest, comparable to what a new game would generate, at only a percentage of the development costs to make an entirely new game.
Concluding Remarks
It concerns me a bit that things have turned out this way. PL more or less had a 2.5 year lifespan (the last update BSM was in late 2012 and PL launched in 2010). MMOs have historically had long lives, measured in at least 5 year spans, and often more (WoW is 9 and Eve is 10 for example). I'm a bit concerned about this type of business model of leaving games in under 3 years. It also has implications for titles like AL.
The reason why those MMOs succeeded, I think was because they were able to offer engaging content and build a community. That's what set them apart. That's why so many WoW killers failed. They failed to cultivate a good community and offer engaging content better than the competition. Also, it's important to remember that the top end players always have a disproportionate effect on the community, not only because in a F2P/P2W type of game they're the few that pay, but also because they set the standard and tone.
There's no sugar-coating it, PL in it's current form is in slow decline. I think that barring changes, this trend will continue until that critical mass is reached, at which point, it may very well be the end. At this point, what we really need is a roadmap of what will happen to PL. If we continue to get silence, I think that we should probably assume that there really are no future plans for PL.
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