Drop Rate Napkin Math
First, off I should say I am loving the new campaign and had a good time fast capping with some old friends. That being said, the experience dropped off a cliff after capping, the drop rate is simply insane. Furthermore, I am mostly a pvp player so farming is not my favorite thing to do, but unfortunately, with the way the sets are designed in the recent cap, it is essentially impossible to pvp without the mythic gear because of the stat difference between pink-elite and elite-mythic.
So I asked myself how long would it take obtain a full mythic set, not including any sort of enchantments? Correct me if I make any unfair assumptions or statements.
I am assuming that the net mythic drop rate, i.e. including elite re-rolls, is 1 in 500. I think that is incredibly generous given the total amount of runs that have been done by the player base and the current number of looted mythics. Now let's say each run takes 10 min, the full non-plat version of the map that is. I haven't tried the buffed boss since the update, but I think that it is safe to say this is a pretty generous assumption as well given an average team. So how long would it take to have a 50% chance of obtaining 6 mythic drops? (not a specific set per se).
The answer is 2850 runs or 475 hours of straight gameplay. Now let's say you play 3 hours a day, how many days would this take? 158 days...
Without a noticeable increase in drop rates, I find it hard it have any motivation to play when I would have to farm 3 hours a day for about half a year to half a 50% chance of looting 6 mythic items. This is just a rough picture, but I think you get my point. I think that the vast majority of pvp oriented players aren't actually going to take part in this cap in its current state. And I think that is a decent percentage of the player base.
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