Opportunity Cost of Locked Crates

[falmear]

One thing I get asked a lot is if someone should open their locked crates. People usually employ the strategy, if I open more then there is a better chance of getting something. But as with rolling dice every chance is separate from the previous. So when making decisions like this I like to look at the opportunity cost, if you are not familiar with this concept read this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

So the opportunity cost of locked crates is what you could sell them at and the plat you could use to convert to gold. So it breaks down like this:

1) 1 Locked Crate could be currently sold for around 20k.

2) 15 plat equals 15000 gold in game

So lets say you have 50 crates.from farming.

50 crates * 20,000 (selling price) = 1,000,000 gold

50 crates * 15,000 (15 plat per crate) = 750,000 gold

So the opportunity cost for opening 50 crates is 1.75 million gold. So for you to just break even whatever you get out of 50 crates has to be worth 1.75 million gold or more, otherwise you will have lost money. So the next time you decide to open any crates, do this quick math. Then decide if you want to open the crates or not. Then compare what you get out of the crates to what you could have sold them for and converted that plat to gold. I am not making any judgments on opening crates and people come up with all kinds of reasons to justify their actions one way or another. But for me when I am trying to make a decision on doing something where I am may make or lose money, I find it helpful to look at the opportunity cost to help me make that decision. The other thing that should be evident is that the more crates you open, the more your opportunity cost goes up so the bigger your return has to be.

[Teoijio]

Unfortunately (or fortunately if you win), there are also psychological factors people subconsciously consider in addition to their opportunity costs. Chief amongst these psychological considerations is poor impulse control.

[Grazr]

Also unfortunately, people who do not buy platinum can't convert like this. For them, platinum is as rare as at least lvl30 legendary items coming from copper chests. :P
So it's not worth the money for them anyway, right?

[Zanpakuto]

Well, it's minus 50000 from that equation because crates have a guaranteed 1000 gold now. Still the odds are not in your favor! I've sold all my crates and didn't open a single one this weekend! I now have enough for half a mythic helm which I'm sure I wouldn't have gotten anything but worthless pinks had I opened! I've already opened hundreds before when they were only 3k each and it was a major disappointment! If you want money, go buy the luck luck elixir for 4 plat and go kraken mines to get at least 1-3 in 30 min! That's the best way for the non addicted.

[falmear]

Well, it's minus 50000 from that equation because crates have a guaranteed 1000 gold now..

No its not, because you don't get 1000 gold if you don't open the crates. This is calculating what it costs you if you didn't open the crates. You keep your plat and convert it to gold and sell your crates.

[Zanpakuto]

No its not, because you don't get 1000 gold if you don't open the crates. This is calculating what it costs you if you didn't open the crates. You keep your plat and convert it to gold and sell your crates.

Opertunity cost is only used from the point of view of someone who opens crates as it tallies everything that was lost as a result of opening and what they could have done with the money instead. Subtracting 50k is valid since it assumes that they've opened.

If you didn't open crates, there's no opportunity lost and it's pure profits which is what you calculated.

At any rate, it's only 50k gold difference and it's still a very high risk, low rate of returns investment (more a gamble really). I highly recommend against opening unless you have tons of money in real life. Don't ask me about my day job lol