The Gambler's Fallacy is a misinterpretation of probability theory. Probability theory says that if you open 100 crates in a row you will have a 77% chance at a mythic. But if you open 50 and get NO mythic, Gambler's fallacy says you STILL have a 77% (or GREATER) chance at getting a mythic , but according to probability theory, you now have 50 crates left and have a 52% chance at getting a mythic. 77% is your chance at the beginning, and your chance drops each crate you open, not rises or stays the same.
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Wait... the odds don't change. They remain constant. Each roll of the computer pseudo-random is compared to the constant. The computer does not keep track of the previous rolls. All statistics can give you is a guess at how many attempt, on the average, are needed to have a positive result. But there's no cosmic Law of Averages. Each attempt takes place regardless of the previous results.
Just for the record, I've opened hundreds during mythic events and didn't get anything. It's all luck
Yes, I know where your confusion is. Fluff's calculation is calculating what's the probability of the NEXT 100 crates that you open. He has no idea what has happen in the past.
For instance, Player A has never open any crates before and he's planning to open 100 crates; Fluff's calculation tells you Player A has 77% to get a mythic.
Now, Player B has already opened 1000 crates and he gets 0 mythic, and he's planning to open 100 more crates; the probability that he's going to get a mythic from these NEXT 100 crates is the same, which is 77%. BUT, the big difference here is that you KNOW Player B has already open 1000 and get 0 mythic, but Fluff's calculation does not include this. This is additional information that Fluff doesn't have, but this is not what he's trying to calculate.
Wow I'm good in math and can't keep up with this .-.
I'm not good in Math but I'm betting my 100 gold on Aedenos on this. The player's rants before when crates and hammerjaw were introduced support this logic. They have opened 1000+ crates and nothing, while some players have opened a couple and got it.
The Forum here is more FUN!
Good luck to those who are opening these crates. From my personal experience I farmed 260 crates total, order my platinum, then cleared my inventory then started opening like crazy. In the end I ended up with no mythic or arcane items, and very little plat. The legendary items I obtained i couldn't even sell for more than 10k. You can do the math on how much REAL money that took and I ended up with nothing. So good luck to those who are opening crates. All just seems like a scam to take your money.
-Zero
I spent alot of RL $ and tons of time on promos and man I opened hundreds of crates and I have made some moment got one arcane item and a few mythics, I like that the devs keep the high end items hard to get, but man I opened 50ish one time and bonechill was the best I got owell, maybe they could loosen it up a tiny bit just saying
1.Open crate
2. Wonder why you took step 1
All your Plat are belong to Sam
For all we know, only a certain number of crates may be allowed to contain anything worthwhile in each 24 hr period?
Like some slot machines which have a fixed payout.
All your Plat are belong to Sam
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